UAE to Exit OPEC After Nearly 60 Years
UAE to Exit OPEC After Nearly 60 Years
阿联酋将在近60年后退出欧佩克 (OPEC)
The United Arab Emirates has announced it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, ending a membership that began in 1967—four years before the UAE was founded as a country. This signals a turning point in the UAE’s role in global energy. 阿拉伯联合酋长国宣布将于5月1日起退出欧佩克 (OPEC) 及“欧佩克+” (OPEC+)，结束其自1967年开始的成员国身份——这一时间点甚至早于阿联酋建国四年。这标志着阿联酋在全球能源领域角色转变的一个转折点。
The government statement, published on state news agency WAM, cited a comprehensive review of the country’s production policy and capacity as the basis for the move, calling it a reflection of “the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile.” 阿联酋政府通过国家通讯社 (WAM) 发表声明，称此举是基于对国家生产政策和产能的全面评估，并将其描述为“阿联酋长期战略与经济愿景以及不断演变的能源格局”的体现。
The decision, it said, is rooted in national interest and a commitment to meeting what it described as the market’s “pressing needs,” a reference to global demand that the UAE believes is being underserved at a time of significant supply disruption. 声明表示，这一决定植根于国家利益，并致力于满足所谓的市场“紧迫需求”。阿联酋认为，在当前供应严重中断的情况下，全球需求并未得到充分满足。
The statement acknowledged the geopolitical backdrop—including an ongoing conflict with Iran that has severely restricted tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes. 声明承认了地缘政治背景，包括与伊朗持续的冲突严重限制了霍尔木兹海峡的油轮运输。霍尔木兹海峡是伊朗和阿曼之间的狭窄水道，全球约五分之一的原油和液化天然气通常经此运输。
The US Energy Information Administration estimates that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain shut in 7.5 million barrels per day of crude oil production in March, and 9.1 million barrels per day in April. 美国能源信息署估计，伊拉克、沙特阿拉伯、科威特、阿联酋、卡塔尔和巴林在3月份关闭了每日750万桶的原油产能，4月份则关闭了每日910万桶。
However, the statement framed the exit as policy-driven rather than reactive, noting that “underlying trends point to sustained growth in global energy demand over the medium to long term.” 然而，声明将此次退出定性为政策驱动而非被动反应，并指出“潜在趋势表明，中长期内全球能源需求将持续增长”。
A Long-Running Dispute
一场旷日持久的争端
Tuesday’s announcement was not without precedent. In 2021, the UAE refused to endorse a production agreement to extend cuts to production unless its individual quota was raised, arguing that it had invested billions to expand capacity and was being unfairly constrained by figures set in 2018. A compromise was eventually reached, but the episode exposed a fundamental tension: The UAE wants to produce more, and OPEC’s quota system was holding it back. 周二的声明并非毫无先例。2021年，阿联酋曾拒绝支持延长减产的协议，除非提高其个人配额。阿联酋认为，它已投入数十亿美元扩大产能，却受到2018年设定的配额限制，这并不公平。尽管最终达成了妥协，但这一事件暴露了一个根本性的矛盾：阿联酋希望增加产量，而欧佩克的配额制度限制了它的发展。
That ambition has only grown since. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, a state-run entity, has a stated target of 5 million barrels per day by 2027, up from current production of around 3.4 million. Under the OPEC+ deal, the country has been held to roughly 3.2 million barrels per day while sitting on capacity above 4 million, a gap that made continued membership increasingly difficult to justify. 自那以后，这种雄心壮志有增无减。国有企业阿布扎比国家石油公司 (ADNOC) 设定的目标是到2027年实现日产500万桶，而目前的产量约为340万桶。在“欧佩克+”协议下，该国产量被限制在每日约320万桶，但其产能却超过400万桶。这种差距使得继续维持成员国身份变得越来越难以自圆其说。
The UAE stressed that its exit does not signal a retreat from global energy responsibility. It pledged to bring additional production to market “in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions,” and reaffirmed investment plans across oil, gas, renewables, and low-carbon technologies. 阿联酋强调，退出并不意味着放弃全球能源责任。它承诺将“以渐进和审慎的方式，根据需求和市场状况”向市场投放额外产量，并重申了在石油、天然气、可再生能源和低碳技术领域的投资计划。
The statement noted that leaving OPEC would make the nation more flexible to respond to market dynamics; OPEC sets limits on production, meaning that the world’s biggest producers often could supply and sell more oil than they actually do. 声明指出，退出欧佩克将使该国在应对市场动态时更加灵活；欧佩克设定了生产限制，这意味着全球最大的生产国往往有能力供应和销售比实际更多的石油。
By limiting supply, the group is able to support prices. This mechanism primarily benefits producers that rely heavily on oil revenue, a description that fits Saudi Arabia far more than the UAE, whose non-oil economy now accounts for roughly 75 percent of GDP. 通过限制供应，该组织能够支撑油价。这种机制主要惠及那些严重依赖石油收入的生产国，这一描述对于沙特阿拉伯而言比阿联酋更为贴切，因为阿联酋的非石油经济目前已占其国内生产总值 (GDP) 的约75%。
Market Reaction and Wider Implications
市场反应与更广泛的影响
The immediate market response was sharp. Brent crude, the European benchmark, surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time since 8 April, rising to $111 as of writing. 市场的即时反应非常剧烈。欧洲基准布伦特原油价格自4月8日以来首次突破每桶100美元，截至发稿时已升至111美元。
The longer-term implications for OPEC are more consequential. The group has been under strain for months, with several members—including Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the UAE—having overproduced their quotas and being required to compensate. The UAE’s departure strips the group of its third-largest producer at a time when supply dynamics are already fragile. 对欧佩克而言，长期影响更为深远。该组织数月来一直承受压力，包括伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦和阿联酋在内的多个成员国因产量超过配额而被要求进行补偿。在供应动态本已脆弱的情况下，阿联酋的退出使该组织失去了其第三大生产国。
The exit follows Qatar’s departure from the group in 2019 and comes as OPEC prepares for a meeting in Vienna, Austria, on Wednesday. 继卡塔尔于2019年退出该组织后，阿联酋也选择了离开。此时，欧佩克正准备于周三在奥地利维也纳举行会议。
“The time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates and our commitment to our investors, customers, partners and global energy markets,” the statement read. 声明写道：“现在是时候将我们的努力集中在国家利益所要求的事情上，并履行我们对投资者、客户、合作伙伴和全球能源市场的承诺。”
The UAE said it values more than five decades of cooperation within OPEC and wished the organization success going forward. 阿联酋表示，它珍视在欧佩克内部五十多年的合作，并祝愿该组织未来取得成功。
This story originally appeared on WIRED Middle East. 本文最初发表于《连线》中东版 (WIRED Middle East)。