The world is on track to miss its health targets

全球卫生目标恐将难以实现

Every year the World Health Organization publishes a global health statistics report. It features the numbers behind world health trends and, importantly, assesses whether we’re on track to reach ambitious goals set in 2015. It’s a bit like a health grade. The 2026 report was published on Wednesday. And the results aren’t looking brilliant.

世界卫生组织每年都会发布一份全球卫生统计报告。该报告不仅呈现了全球健康趋势背后的数据，更重要的是，它评估了我们是否正按计划实现 2015 年设定的宏伟目标。这就像是一份“健康成绩单”。2026 年度的报告于周三发布，结果并不乐观。

While we are seeing some improvements, they are uneven, and they’re far too slow. The targets themselves are part of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, a sprawling and ambitious plan focused on improving life around the world. The 17 goals were set to tackle poverty and climate change and to boost education, gender equality, health, and well-being, among many other quality of life issues. Those targets were meant to be met by 2030. Perhaps they were a little too ambitious. Here are the numbers and statistics that stood out to me on this year’s world health report card.

尽管我们看到了一些改善，但进展并不均衡，且速度过于缓慢。这些目标属于联合国“可持续发展目标”（SDGs）的一部分，这是一项旨在改善全球生活的宏大计划。这 17 项目标旨在解决贫困和气候变化问题，并促进教育、性别平等、健康和福祉等诸多生活质量议题。这些目标原定于 2030 年实现，或许它们设定得过于宏伟了。以下是今年全球卫生报告中令我印象深刻的数据和统计结果。

1.3 million new cases of HIV in 2024

2024 年新增 130 万例艾滋病毒（HIV）感染者

Before the SDGs, there were the Millennium Development Goals. One MDG target was to halt and reverse the spread of HIV—and that target was exceeded by 2015. Back then, we were considered on track to “end the AIDS epidemic by 2030.” How depressing, then, to see that in 2024 there were an estimated 1.3 million new cases of HIV. That’s 40% lower than the figure from 2010. But it’s still 1.3 million additional people with HIV. The SDG target is to reduce HIV incidence by 90% by 2030—we’re not likely to meet it.

在可持续发展目标之前，曾有“千年发展目标”（MDGs）。其中一个目标是遏制并扭转艾滋病毒的传播，该目标在 2015 年前已超额完成。当时，我们被认为有望在 2030 年前“终结艾滋病疫情”。然而，看到 2024 年估计仍有 130 万例新增艾滋病毒感染者，令人感到沮丧。这比 2010 年的数据下降了 40%，但仍意味着有 130 万人新感染了艾滋病毒。可持续发展目标要求在 2030 年前将艾滋病毒发病率降低 90%，我们很可能无法实现这一目标。

10.7 million new cases of TB

1070 万例结核病（TB）新增病例

The picture is even bleaker for tuberculosis, which ranks 10th on the WHO’s list of top global causes of death. The goal was to reduce cases by 80% between 2015 and 2030. So far, cases have only fallen by a measly 12%. And when you break the change down by region, the Americas saw an increase of 13%.

结核病的情况更为严峻，它在世卫组织全球十大死因中排名第十。原定目标是在 2015 年至 2030 年间将病例减少 80%。然而到目前为止，病例数仅微降了 12%。如果按地区细分，美洲地区的病例数甚至增加了 13%。

An 8.5% rise in malaria cases

疟疾病例上升 8.5%

And then there’s malaria, the mosquito-borne disease with a 7% fatality rate. The European region has been free of malaria since 2015, but the disease is a significant concern in many countries in the Global South, particularly in Africa. The goal was to lower rates by 90% between 2015 and 2030. In 2024, there were an estimated 282 million cases of malaria globally—representing an 8.5% increase in incidence rates. Antimalarial drug resistance is a major challenge here—forms of the malaria virus that are resistant to drugs have been confirmed or suspected in eight countries in Africa, according to a separate WHO report. Mosquitoes that are resistant to commonly used insecticides are present in nine African countries. And climate change, which can alter mosquito habitats, may be making things worse.

接下来是疟疾，这种蚊媒疾病的致死率为 7%。欧洲地区自 2015 年以来已消灭疟疾，但该疾病在许多全球南方国家，特别是非洲，仍是一个重大隐患。原定目标是在 2015 年至 2030 年间将发病率降低 90%。2024 年，全球估计有 2.82 亿例疟疾，发病率上升了 8.5%。抗疟药物耐药性是这里的一大挑战——根据世卫组织的另一份报告，非洲有八个国家已确认或怀疑存在耐药性疟原虫。此外，九个非洲国家已发现对常用杀虫剂具有抗药性的蚊子。而可能改变蚊子栖息地的气候变化，或许正在让情况变得更糟。

42.8 million children are wasting

4280 万儿童患有消瘦症

We’re not meeting child health targets, either. Take malnutrition, for example. As of 2024, the global prevalence of wasting in children was 6.6%—that’s a staggering 42.8 million children who are literally wasting away because of a lack of adequate food. On the other end of the spectrum, 5.5% of children are now considered overweight. Both figures were meant to be below 5% by 2030, which now seems unlikely.

我们在儿童健康目标上也未达标。以营养不良为例，截至 2024 年，全球儿童消瘦症的患病率为 6.6%，这意味着有 4280 万名儿童因缺乏充足食物而处于消瘦状态，情况令人震惊。而在另一端，5.5% 的儿童被认为超重。这两个数字原定在 2030 年前都应降至 5% 以下，但目前看来已不太可能实现。

Vaccination rates are dropping in the Americas

美洲地区的疫苗接种率正在下降

Progress in improving childhood vaccination coverage has stalled. Globally, an estimated 76% of children are getting their second dose of a measles vaccine—a figure far below the approximately 95% needed to prevent outbreaks. The Americas currently has lower rates of vaccine coverage for three of the four “core” vaccines than it did in 2015. This is partly due to a lack of investment, says Goodarz Danaei, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “But now we have a misinformation campaign going around vaccines that makes it worse,” he adds. The covid-19 pandemic didn’t exactly help, either. The impact on health services led to millions of children missing out on routine vaccinations.

提高儿童疫苗接种覆盖率的进展已经停滞。在全球范围内，估计只有 76% 的儿童接种了第二剂麻疹疫苗，这一数字远低于预防疫情爆发所需的约 95%。目前，美洲地区四种“核心”疫苗中的三种，其接种覆盖率均低于 2015 年的水平。哈佛大学陈曾熙公共卫生学院的流行病学家 Goodarz Danaei 表示，这部分归因于投资不足。“但现在围绕疫苗的虚假信息运动让情况变得更糟，”他补充道。新冠疫情也无济于事，其对医疗服务的影响导致数百万儿童错过了常规疫苗接种。

2210 万例与疫情相关的死亡

And of course the pandemic affected progress toward health goals in more direct ways: 7 million people died of covid-19. The WHO report estimates that, for each of these, there were an additional two “excess” deaths related to the pandemic, due to disruptions in health care, for example. That puts the total figure at 22.1 million pandemic-related deaths.

当然，疫情还以更直接的方式影响了卫生目标的进展：700 万人死于新冠肺炎。世卫组织报告估计，每例新冠死亡病例背后，还有两例因医疗服务中断等原因导致的“超额”死亡。这使得与疫情相关的死亡总数达到了 2210 万。

A woman dies every two minutes from “maternal causes”

每两分钟就有一名女性死于“孕产原因”

Maternal mortality rates fell by about 40% between 2020 and 2023. But today’s rate equates to 712 maternal deaths every single day. That’s one every two minutes. The WHO report notes that we’d have to reduce the mortality rate by almost 15% per year in order to meet the 2030 target. This seems incredibly unlikely, particularly given the recent decimation of US funding for global aid programs, which is expected to result in thousands of additional maternal deaths. Progress has also slowed in reducing the risk of death from noninfectious diseases like cancer, diabetes and cardiovascular disease. “Overall, neither the world nor any WHO region is currently on track to meet the 2030 SDG target,” the report states.

2020 年至 2023 年间，孕产妇死亡率下降了约 40%。但目前的比率相当于每天有 712 名孕产妇死亡，即每两分钟就有一人死亡。世卫组织报告指出，要实现 2030 年的目标，我们必须每年将死亡率降低近 15%。这看起来极不可能，特别是考虑到美国近期大幅削减了全球援助项目的资金，预计这将导致数千名孕产妇额外死亡。在降低癌症、糖尿病和心血管疾病等非传染性疾病的死亡风险方面，进展也已放缓。报告称：“总体而言，无论是全球还是世卫组织的任何区域，目前都无法按计划实现 2030 年的可持续发展目标。”

2.1 billion people struggle to afford health care

21 亿人难以负担医疗费用

Despite plans to make health care more affordable, a significant chunk of the population is being pushed into poverty by health-care costs. In 2022, 2.1 billion people faced financial hardship due to health spending—and 1.6 billion of them were living in or had been pushed into poverty. Across the board, there have been some important improvements in global health. But the achievements have not gone far enough. “The good news is that there is progress,” says Danaei. “But as always, the glass is half empty.”

尽管有计划让医疗服务变得更可负担，但仍有相当一部分人口因医疗费用而陷入贫困。2022 年，21 亿人因医疗支出面临经济困难，其中 16 亿人生活在贫困中或因病致贫。总的来说，全球健康状况确实取得了一些重要改善，但这些成就还远远不够。“好消息是有进展，”Danaei 说，“但一如既往，杯子还是半空的。”

This article first appeared in The Checkup, MIT Technology Review’s weekly biotech newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Thursday, and read articles like this first, sign up here.

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