The US is betting on AI to catch insider trading in prediction markets

美国押注人工智能以打击预测市场中的内幕交易

For most of the past year, it looked like prediction markets had kicked off a new golden age of fraud. On Polymarket, traders raked in fortunes from suspiciously timed bets on geopolitical events like the raid on Venezuela and the Iran War. It wasn’t clear whether the US government would bother pursuing some of the most flagrant bad actors, since Polymarket’s crypto-based platform was technically offshore and not regulated or licensed within the country.

在过去的大部分时间里，预测市场似乎开启了一个欺诈的“黄金时代”。在 Polymarket 上，交易员们通过对委内瑞拉突袭行动和伊朗战争等地缘政治事件进行时间点极其可疑的押注，赚取了巨额财富。由于 Polymarket 的加密货币平台在技术上属于离岸运营，且未在美国境内获得监管或许可，外界一度不确定美国政府是否会费心追究那些最猖獗的违规者。

Now, however, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees prediction markets, wants you to know that it’s watching very, very closely. The agency is searching for suspicious behavior from traders within the United States who have been sneaking onto offshore markets, including Polymarket’s crypto platform—which is blocked stateside—by using virtual private networks (VPNs).

然而，负责监管预测市场的美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）现在明确表示，他们正在密切关注此事。该机构正在搜寻美国境内交易员的可疑行为，这些交易员通过虚拟专用网络（VPN）偷偷进入包括 Polymarket 加密平台在内的离岸市场（该平台在美国境内已被屏蔽）。

“We’re going to find them, and we’re going to bring actions,” agency chairman Michael Selig told WIRED this week, speaking from the CFTC’s headquarters in Washington, DC. Selig says the agency, which is especially lean right now, is staffing up. Like so many other AI-pilled workplaces, the CFTC is also leaning into automation to handle the growing workload, including tools that analyze trading patterns and flag potential manipulation.

“我们会找到他们，并采取法律行动，”该机构主席迈克尔·塞利格（Michael Selig）本周在华盛顿特区的 CFTC 总部接受《连线》（WIRED）采访时表示。塞利格称，目前人手紧缺的 CFTC 正在扩充人员。像许多其他拥抱人工智能的职场一样，CFTC 也正倾向于利用自动化来处理日益繁重的工作量，包括使用能够分析交易模式并标记潜在操纵行为的工具。

“You’ve got so much data,” Selig says. “When we feed it into AI, we get really great information. It can help us understand things, like where we might want to investigate, or when we might need to send a subpoena to a trader.” In addition to proprietary surveillance systems developed in-house, the agency’s arsenal includes third-party blockchain tracing tools like Chainalysis for crypto platforms, and market abuse detection software including Nasdaq Smarts for centralized markets.

“数据量太大了，”塞利格说，“当我们将其输入人工智能时，能获得非常有价值的信息。它能帮助我们理解很多事情，比如我们应该调查哪里，或者何时需要向交易员发出传票。”除了内部开发的专有监控系统外，该机构的“武器库”还包括用于加密平台的第三方区块链追踪工具（如 Chainalysis），以及用于中心化市场的市场滥用检测软件（如 Nasdaq Smarts）。

Prominent prediction market companies have recently started touting all the work they’re doing to catch sketchy bettors. US-based exchange Kalshi, Polymarket’s primary competitor, eagerly announced that it has suspended and penalized customers flagged for insider trading and market manipulation. In April, after significant backlash over suspected insider trading, Polymarket announced its own partnership with Chainalysis. It was part of a broader push to crack down on market manipulation.

知名的预测市场公司最近开始大肆宣传他们为抓捕可疑投注者所做的工作。Polymarket 的主要竞争对手、总部位于美国的交易所 Kalshi 积极宣布，已暂停并处罚了被标记为进行内幕交易和市场操纵的客户。今年 4 月，在因涉嫌内幕交易引发强烈抵制后，Polymarket 也宣布与 Chainalysis 建立合作伙伴关系，这是其打击市场操纵行为的更广泛举措的一部分。

While the company’s CEO, Shayne Coplan, had talked in the past about why insider trading could be good for prediction markets, Polymarket changed its approach this spring, updating its market integrity rules and announcing a partnership with Palantir for its US-based sports markets (the Chainalysis deal focuses on the offshore platform). The company did not respond to WIRED’s request for comments for this story.

尽管该公司首席执行官谢恩·科普兰（Shayne Coplan）过去曾谈到内幕交易为何对预测市场有益，但 Polymarket 在今年春天改变了策略，更新了市场诚信规则，并宣布与 Palantir 合作以支持其美国体育市场（与 Chainalysis 的合作则侧重于离岸平台）。该公司未回应《连线》就本文提出的置评请求。

According to Chainalysis spokesperson Maddie Kenney, the company analyzes the same data for both clients. “The value Chainalysis adds for our customers, including Polymarket and the CFTC, is organizing the data and enriching it with the attributions and insights we’ve accumulated over years in the space,” she says. Certainly sounds like a good deal for Chainalysis!

据 Chainalysis 发言人麦迪·肯尼（Maddie Kenney）称，该公司为这两家客户分析的是相同的数据。“Chainalysis 为包括 Polymarket 和 CFTC 在内的客户所带来的价值，在于整理数据，并利用我们多年来在该领域积累的归因和洞察力来丰富这些数据，”她说。这对 Chainalysis 来说无疑是一笔好生意！

The CFTC’s assurances that it is hunting insiders comes at a moment of intense scrutiny on prediction markets. In March, Connecticut senator Chris Murphy told WIRED that he suspected White House staffers were engaged in insider trading on war-related contracts. At the beginning of April, seven members of Congress asked the CFTC to investigate overseas markets offering war-themed events contracts. In a letter, the lawmakers argued that the commission had the authority and responsibility to curb insider trading, especially on “morally obscene” trades on military action.

CFTC 关于打击内幕交易的保证，正值预测市场受到严密审查之际。今年 3 月，康涅狄格州参议员克里斯·墨菲（Chris Murphy）告诉《连线》，他怀疑白宫工作人员参与了与战争相关合同的内幕交易。4 月初，七名国会议员要求 CFTC 调查提供战争主题事件合约的海外市场。议员们在信中指出，委员会拥有遏制内幕交易的权力和责任，特别是在针对军事行动的“道德上令人反感”的交易方面。

Selig recently told Congress that the company is pursuing “hundreds, if not thousands” of insider trading tips. Investigations are not limited to federally regulated exchanges. “We’re surveilling the markets on a global basis,” he tells WIRED. Selig says that the agency will exert extraterritorial jurisdiction—its legal ability to enforce its laws beyond traditional boundaries—when it finds suspicious activity on offshore platforms like Polymarket, though he says it’s a case-by-case approach.

塞利格最近告诉国会，该机构正在跟进“数百甚至数千条”内幕交易线索。调查并不局限于联邦监管的交易所。“我们正在全球范围内监控市场，”他告诉《连线》。塞利格表示，当在 Polymarket 等离岸平台上发现可疑活动时，该机构将行使“域外管辖权”（即在传统边界之外执行法律的法律能力），尽管他表示这将视具体情况而定。

“We use it in extreme circumstances,” he says, with an eye towards whether charges have a strong chance of sticking in court. “In any extraterritorial litigation, there’s going to be challenges to our authority, and that could also impair our ability to bring cases in the future.” According to Selig, the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act allows the CFTC more leeway to pursue this kind of enforcement action, by giving it more authority over foreign swap activities that impact the US.

“我们只在极端情况下使用这种权力，”他说，同时考虑到指控在法庭上成立的可能性。“在任何域外诉讼中，我们的权威都会受到挑战，这可能会削弱我们未来提起诉讼的能力。”据塞利格称，2010 年的《多德-弗兰克法案》（Dodd-Frank Act）通过赋予 CFTC 对影响美国的外国掉期交易活动更大的管辖权，使其在采取此类执法行动时拥有更多余地。

When appropriate, the agency works with regulators from other countries, too. “For cases where we’re not sure we’ll win, or it’s less in our wheelhouse and more of a foreign matter, we would relay it to a foreign regulator,” he says. “We’re constantly referring cases.” (The agency declined to specify which cases it had referred.)

在适当的情况下，该机构也会与其他国家的监管机构合作。“对于那些我们不确定能否胜诉，或者不属于我们核心业务、更多属于外国事务的案件，我们会将其转交给外国监管机构，”他说，“我们一直在转交案件。”（该机构拒绝透露具体转交了哪些案件。）

So far, exactly one man has been charged with insider trading in the United States. On April 23, federal agents arrested a US Army special forces soldier for trades he made on Polymarket last year tied to the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. After the arrest, Polymarket claimed that it had flagged the trade to the government. Selig is insistent that the CFTC is only just getting started. The agency will identify wrongdoers, he says—no matter “how large or how small.”

到目前为止，美国仅有一人被指控进行内幕交易。4 月 23 日，联邦特工逮捕了一名美国陆军特种部队士兵，原因是他去年在 Polymarket 上进行了与抓捕委内瑞拉前领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolas Maduro）相关的交易。逮捕发生后，Polymarket 声称已向政府标记了该笔交易。塞利格坚称，CFTC 的行动才刚刚开始。他说，该机构将揪出所有违规者，无论其“规模大小”。