For Eclipse, the $2.5B Cerebras win is just the start of realizing its physical-world thesis
For Eclipse, the $2.5B Cerebras win is just the start of realizing its physical-world thesis
对于 Eclipse 而言，Cerebras 带来的 25 亿美元收益仅仅是其“物理世界”投资理念的开端
When Lior Susan started Eclipse Ventures in 2015, the firm’s thesis of digitizing the physical world wasn’t particularly popular in Silicon Valley. “It was the era of enterprise software and SaaS, and it felt fairly lonely the first couple of years,” Susan said on stage at a recent StrictlyVC event in San Francisco. 2015 年，当 Lior Susan 创立 Eclipse Ventures 时，该公司“数字化物理世界”的投资理念在硅谷并不受追捧。“那是企业软件和 SaaS 的时代，最初几年感觉相当孤独，”Susan 在最近旧金山举行的 StrictlyVC 活动上说道。
More than a decade later, Eclipse finds itself at the center of the tech world’s action. The firm’s $6.5 million Series A investment in Cerebras Systems in 2016 paved the way for a total return of $2.5 billion when the semiconductor company went public this week. The firm invested a total of $147 million in Cerebras over time, a bet that generated a 17-fold return at the IPO price of $185 per share, according to Eclipse. 十多年后的今天，Eclipse 已处于科技界风口浪尖。2016 年，该公司对 Cerebras Systems 的 650 万美元 A 轮投资，为其在本周这家半导体公司上市时带来了总计 25 亿美元的回报。据 Eclipse 称，他们先后向 Cerebras 总共投入了 1.47 亿美元，按 185 美元的 IPO 发行价计算，这笔投资获得了 17 倍的回报。
For Susan, the windfall from Cerebras is only the beginning of reaping big rewards from a longstanding belief that because 85% of global GDP is tied to the physical world, investing in companies beyond pure software could be immensely lucrative. 对于 Susan 来说，Cerebras 带来的意外之财仅仅是其长期信念所获丰厚回报的开始。他坚信，由于全球 85% 的 GDP 与物理世界相关，投资纯软件以外的公司可能具有巨大的盈利潜力。
Public markets and startup founders seem to be recognizing the value of physical-world tech now, too. Susan noted that shares of TSMC and Micron recently hit all-time highs, while a growing cohort of elite founders are eager to build startups at the intersection of hardware and software. “I think people understand that the real moat in software is gone. You can vibe code pretty much whatever you want,” he said. 公开市场和创业者们似乎也开始意识到物理世界技术的价值。Susan 指出，台积电（TSMC）和美光（Micron）的股价近期均创下历史新高，同时越来越多的精英创业者渴望在硬件与软件的交叉领域建立初创公司。“我认为人们已经明白，软件领域真正的护城河已经消失了。你几乎可以通过‘直觉编程’（vibe code）写出任何你想要的东西，”他说。
Susan echoed public market sentiment that earlier this year sent many SaaS stocks tumbling on the belief that enterprises may use Anthropic’s Claude Code or OpenAI’s latest models to create their own bespoke software tools instead. “What you cannot do with ‘vibe code’ is manufacture wafers, because you need machines and silicon, and they need clean rooms, and a bunch of other things,” Susan said. Susan 呼应了公开市场的观点，即今年早些时候许多 SaaS 股票暴跌，原因在于人们认为企业可能会利用 Anthropic 的 Claude Code 或 OpenAI 的最新模型来创建自己的定制软件工具。“但你无法用‘直觉编程’来制造晶圆，因为你需要机器和硅片，还需要洁净室以及其他一系列东西，”Susan 说道。
When it comes to the tech that touches the physical world, it’s not just semiconductors that are suddenly catching the attention of investors and founders. Eclipse’s portfolio companies spanning sectors like robotics, energy and defense, raised nearly $15 billion from outside backers last year, and that late-stage momentum reached $4.5 billion in Q1 2026 alone, Susan said. 谈到触及物理世界的科技，不仅仅是半导体行业突然吸引了投资者和创始人的目光。Susan 表示，Eclipse 旗下涵盖机器人、能源和国防等领域的投资组合公司去年从外部支持者那里筹集了近 150 亿美元，仅在 2026 年第一季度，这种后期融资势头就达到了 45 亿美元。
That investor excitement stands in stark contrast to the firm’s early track record: in its first eight years, its portfolio companies raised less than $4 billion in total. Indeed, the recent follow-on rounds across Eclipse’s portfolio show a track record that any venture firm would envy. Driven by a string of massive late-stage deals this year, the haul includes $1.2 billion for Wayve, $650 million for True Anomaly, $270 million for Bedrock Robotics, and $200 million for Oxide Computer. What’s more, Eclipse was the Series A investor for all four companies. 这种投资者的热情与该公司早期的业绩形成了鲜明对比：在成立的前八年里，其投资组合公司总共筹集的资金不到 40 亿美元。事实上，Eclipse 投资组合中近期的后续融资轮次展现出了任何风投公司都会羡慕的业绩。在今年一系列大规模后期交易的推动下，融资额包括 Wayve 的 12 亿美元、True Anomaly 的 6.5 亿美元、Bedrock Robotics 的 2.7 亿美元以及 Oxide Computer 的 2 亿美元。更重要的是，Eclipse 是这四家公司的 A 轮投资者。
At first glance, it may seem that investor enthusiasm for physical-world tech is driven purely by AI, whether as an infrastructure input like chips and data centers, or through AI’s power to finally make robotics, viable. However, Susan argues that there are other powerful tailwinds driving the momentum. Besides technology — in this case, AI — what’s important for this market to thrive is capital, customer demand, talent, and policy. 乍一看，投资者对物理世界技术的热情似乎完全是由人工智能驱动的，无论是作为芯片和数据中心等基础设施投入，还是通过人工智能使机器人技术最终变得可行。然而，Susan 认为还有其他强大的顺风因素在推动这一势头。除了技术（在本例中为人工智能）之外，市场繁荣的关键还在于资本、客户需求、人才和政策。
Susan means that along with investors and engineers moving away from SaaS to sectors like robotics, semiconductors, space, and mining, the U.S. government is also encouraging these industries through subsidies and favorable regulation. “This is the first time I believe in America ever, from Henry Ford and Carnegie, those five forces are aligned,” Susan said. “For builders like us, this is the best time to build those companies.” Susan 的意思是，随着投资者和工程师从 SaaS 转向机器人、半导体、太空和采矿等领域，美国政府也正在通过补贴和有利的监管来鼓励这些行业。“这是我自亨利·福特和卡内基时代以来，第一次相信在美国，这五种力量已经达成一致，”Susan 说。“对于像我们这样的建设者来说，现在是创办这些公司的最佳时机。”