AI is a technology, not a product

AI 是一项技术，而非产品

Steven Levy, writing for Wired last month after Apple’s CEO transition was announced, under the provocative headline “Apple’s Next CEO Needs to Launch a Killer AI Product”: 上个月，在苹果公司宣布 CEO 更迭后，Steven Levy 在《连线》（Wired）杂志上发表了一篇标题颇具挑衅意味的文章，题为《苹果的下一任 CEO 需要推出一款杀手级 AI 产品》：

Much more recently, I quizzed Ternus and global marketing head Greg Joswiak about Apple’s future, specifically its plans to get ahead of the AI transformation. Ternus acknowledged that AI is “an immense kind of inflection point,” but couched it as one of many leaps that Apple has navigated. Each hit product — the Apple II, the Mac, iTunes, the iPod, the iPhone, iPad — piggybacked on a previous product. “We never think about shipping a technology,” he said. “We want to ship amazing products, features, and experiences, and we don’t want our customers to think about what [underlying] technology makes it possible. That’s the way we think about AI.” 最近，我向 Ternus 和全球营销主管 Greg Joswiak 询问了苹果的未来，特别是其在 AI 转型中保持领先的计划。Ternus 承认 AI 是“一个巨大的转折点”，但他将其描述为苹果经历过的众多飞跃之一。每一款热门产品——Apple II、Mac、iTunes、iPod、iPhone、iPad——都是建立在之前产品的基础之上的。“我们从不考虑发布一项技术，”他说，“我们想要发布的是令人惊叹的产品、功能和体验，我们不希望客户去思考是什么（底层）技术实现了这些。这就是我们看待 AI 的方式。”

That’s fine, but I look back to the mid-2000s when everybody was waiting for Apple to come out with a phone. When Jobs finally delivered in January 2007, the product defined the mobile era. It’s a big ask for Ternus to do something similar for the AI age — but it’s an opportunity that must be seized. AI threatens to disrupt the entire iPhone ecosystem. By the end of this decade, it’s unlikely that people will swipe on their phones to tap on Uber or Lyft. They will just tell their always-on AI agent to get them home. Or that agent will have already figured out where they need to go, and the car will be waiting without the friction of a request. “There’s an app for that,” may be replaced by “Let the agent do that.” 这没问题，但我回想起 2000 年代中期，当时每个人都在等待苹果推出手机。当乔布斯最终在 2007 年 1 月交付产品时，它定义了移动时代。要求 Ternus 为 AI 时代做类似的事情是一个巨大的挑战，但这确实是一个必须抓住的机会。AI 有可能颠覆整个 iPhone 生态系统。到本十年末，人们不太可能再在手机上滑动点击 Uber 或 Lyft 了。他们只会告诉他们全天候运行的 AI 代理带他们回家。或者，该代理已经预判了他们的目的地，车辆会在无需请求的情况下自动等候。“凡事皆有 App”（There’s an app for that）可能会被“让代理去做吧”（Let the agent do that）所取代。

I’m a huge longtime Steven Levy fan, but this is nonsense. It’s hard to read this and not worry that he too has lost his mind to the AI snake-oil hypesters. What Ternus told him is exactly right. The Apple way is never to ship a technology. The iPod wasn’t about MP3 files. It wasn’t about 1.8-inch hard drives. It was about music. The iPhone did define the mobile era (which we’re still very much in), but Apple doesn’t need to capitalize on every single market the mobile era opened up. Social media is a defining component of the mobile era. It comprises the entirety of Meta’s value and a sizable slice of Google’s (via YouTube). Apple doesn’t have a social network business. It’s fine — because the way people consume and create social media is using their phones. 我长期以来一直是 Steven Levy 的忠实粉丝，但这番话纯属无稽之谈。读到这些内容，很难不担心他也迷失在 AI 蛇油推销员的炒作中了。Ternus 对他所说的话完全正确。苹果的方式从来不是发布一项技术。iPod 的核心不是 MP3 文件，也不是 1.8 英寸硬盘，而是音乐。iPhone 确实定义了移动时代（我们至今仍深处其中），但苹果不需要利用移动时代开启的每一个市场。社交媒体是移动时代的一个决定性组成部分。它构成了 Meta 的全部价值，以及谷歌（通过 YouTube）的很大一部分价值。苹果没有社交网络业务。这没关系——因为人们消费和创作社交媒体的方式正是通过手机。

Does AI “threaten to disrupt the entire iPhone ecosystem”? It’s possible, but it doesn’t seem nearly as likely to me as Levy asserts. Changing the iPhone ecosystem? Sure — that’s already true. Obviating the iPhone ecosystem? I don’t see it. Levy’s argument reminds me of the hype around “the cloud” when that first became a term. It’s so meaningless when used broadly (e.g. “Everything will soon be in the cloud”) that it could mean anything. It’s step #2 in the gnomes-stealing-underpants master plan. AI 是否“威胁要颠覆整个 iPhone 生态系统”？有可能，但在我看来，这远没有 Levy 断言的那样可能。改变 iPhone 生态系统？当然——这已经是事实了。废除 iPhone 生态系统？我看不出有这种可能。Levy 的论点让我想起了“云”这个词刚出现时的炒作。当它被广泛使用时（例如“一切都将很快上云”），它变得毫无意义，以至于可以指代任何事物。这就像是“地精偷内裤”宏大计划中的第二步。

The idea that AI agents “will have already figured out where [we] need to go, and the car will be waiting without the friction of a request” strikes me as pure fever dream high-on-the-hype fantasy. I’m just going to step outside a restaurant when I’m done eating a meal and a ride-share is going to be there, waiting for me, without my having hailed it? Every time? And I’m going to find this pleasing, not creepy? And ride-share drivers are going to respond to all these requests, because the requests will never be wrong? And this is going to happen, somehow, without my carrying a phone with me? And this is going to happen in the next four years? I don’t think I’d want this even if it were plausible, but it doesn’t sound plausible. 那种认为 AI 代理“已经预判了我们需要去哪里，车辆无需请求就会自动等候”的想法，在我看来纯粹是沉浸在炒作中的白日梦。我吃完饭走出餐厅，一辆网约车就会在那里等着我，而我根本没叫车？每次都这样？我会觉得这很令人愉悦，而不是毛骨悚然？网约车司机都会响应所有这些请求，因为请求永远不会出错？而且这一切的发生，竟然不需要我随身携带手机？而且这会在未来四年内发生？即使这在理论上可行，我也不认为我会想要它，但这听起来根本就不现实。

Actual products have to be real. Actual experiences have to rely on actual products. How exactly in Levy’s end-of-this-decade scenario will we tell our “always-on AI agent” to get us home? What microphone is listening to the command? What speaker is telling us the request was understood and acted upon? What screen do we look at to see how far away the hailed car is? I’d bet a pretty large sum of money that in 2030, when someone hails a ride-share vehicle to take them home, the most common product they’ll use to do that will be their phone. Whether they’re doing it via a verbal command issued to an “always-on AI agent” or good old tapping and swiping, it’ll be a phone. 真正的产品必须是实实在在的。真正的体验必须依赖于真正的产品。在 Levy 所描述的十年末场景中，我们到底该如何告诉我们的“全天候 AI 代理”带我们回家？哪个麦克风在监听指令？哪个扬声器在告诉我们请求已被理解并执行？我们看哪个屏幕来查看叫来的车还有多远？我敢打赌，到 2030 年，当有人叫网约车回家时，他们最常用的产品依然会是手机。无论他们是通过向“全天候 AI 代理”发出语音指令，还是通过传统的点击和滑动，那都将是一部手机。

If you think that people will buy smaller devices to replace their phones, and use those to talk to “always-on AI agents” instead, you have to answer some questions. What company is the best in the world at making smaller-than-phone personal computing devices? What device will people use as their camera? What device will people use as their screen, for watching videos, playing games, texting, and (one hopes) reading? My answers to those three questions: Apple, phone, phone. Why would smaller devices — you know, like watches, earbuds, and, say, glasses — work independently rather than pair with the phone that you’re almost certainly still going to be carrying with you? 如果你认为人们会购买比手机更小的设备来取代手机，并用它们来与“全天候 AI 代理”对话，那你必须回答几个问题。世界上哪家公司最擅长制造比手机更小的个人计算设备？人们会用什么设备作为相机？人们会用什么设备作为屏幕来观看视频、玩游戏、发短信以及（希望如此）阅读？我对这三个问题的回答是：苹果、手机、手机。为什么更小的设备——比如手表、耳机，或者眼镜——会独立工作，而不是与你几乎肯定会随身携带的手机配对呢？

Only a fool would argue that Apple can stand on the sidelines and ignore AI. It’s very different from, say, social media that way. Social media doesn’t pervade everything in technology. You can ignore social media as a user. (And you’re probably more productive, and happier, if you do.) A company can eschew social media as a business. AI, on the other hand, is pervasive. It can’t be ignored. But it’s just technology. Wireless networking is pervasive too. But Apple doesn’t have “a killer wireless networking product”. Wireless networking simply pervades everything Apple makes. I’m hard pressed to think of a single product Apple makes that doesn’t use some combination of Wi-Fi, cellular, Bluetooth, and proprietary wireless protocols. 只有傻瓜才会认为苹果可以袖手旁观，无视 AI。在这方面，它与社交媒体大不相同。社交媒体并没有渗透到科技的方方面面。作为用户，你可以无视社交媒体。（如果你这样做，你可能会更高效、更快乐。）一家公司也可以在业务上避开社交媒体。然而，AI 是无处不在的。它无法被忽视。但它仅仅是一项技术。无线网络也无处不在。但苹果并没有所谓的“杀手级无线网络产品”。无线网络只是渗透到了苹果制造的每一件产品中。我很难想到苹果制造的哪一件产品不使用 Wi-Fi、蜂窝网络、蓝牙和专有无线协议的某种组合。