Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
明尼苏达州成为全美首个禁止预测市场的州
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has signed the nation’s first law banning prediction market sites from operating in the state, and in response, the Trump administration has sued, teeing up a legal battle over the most far-reaching crackdown on popular services like Kalshi and Polymarket. It comes as states confront a growing standoff with the Trump administration over how to regulate the industry, which allows people to bet on virtually anything.
明尼苏达州州长蒂姆·沃尔兹（Tim Walz）签署了全美首部禁止预测市场网站在该州运营的法律。作为回应，特朗普政府已提起诉讼，针对 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 等热门服务展开了迄今为止最严厉的打击行动，一场法律战随之拉开帷幕。目前，各州正与特朗普政府在如何监管该行业的问题上陷入日益严重的对峙，该行业允许人们对几乎任何事情进行投注。
The new state law makes it a crime to host or advertise a prediction market, which it defines as a system that lets consumers place a wager on a future outcome, like sports, elections, live entertainment, someone’s word choice and world affairs. The prohibition extends to services supporting prediction markets, like virtual private networks, that could allow consumers to disguise their location and get around the ban. It would force prediction market sites like Kalshi and Polymarket to leave the state, or face possible felony charges. The law takes effect in August.
这项新的州法律规定，托管或宣传预测市场属于犯罪行为。法律将其定义为一种允许消费者对未来结果（如体育赛事、选举、现场娱乐、某人的措辞选择以及国际事务）进行下注的系统。禁令还延伸至支持预测市场的服务，例如可能允许消费者隐藏位置以规避禁令的虚拟专用网络（VPN）。该法律将迫使 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 等预测市场网站撤出该州，否则将面临重罪指控。该法律将于八月生效。
“We as a state should decide how best and what regulations we think should attach to gambling, to protect public safety, to protect our kids,” said Minnesota Rep. Emma Greenman, the Democrat who introduced the measure. The law has a carve-out for event contracts that serve as an insurance policy in the event of “harm, or loss sustained” and for the purchase of securities and other commodities.
“作为州政府，我们应该决定如何最好地监管赌博，以及我们认为应该附加哪些法规，以保护公共安全，保护我们的孩子，”提出该法案的民主党籍明尼苏达州众议员艾玛·格林曼（Emma Greenman）表示。该法律为那些在发生“伤害或损失”时作为保险单的事件合约，以及证券和其他商品的购买预留了豁免条款。
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) lawsuit seeks to block the law before it starts, arguing the prediction market industry should be exclusively regulated by federal officials. “This Minnesota law turns lawful operators and participants in prediction markets into felons overnight,” said CFTC Chairman Michael Selig. “Minnesota farmers have relied on critical hedging products on weather and crop-related events for decades to mitigate their risks. Governor Walz chose to put special interests first and American farmers and innovators last.”
美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）提起的诉讼旨在阻止该法律生效，理由是预测市场行业应由联邦官员进行排他性监管。“这项明尼苏达州的法律一夜之间将预测市场的合法经营者和参与者变成了重罪犯，”CFTC 主席迈克尔·塞利格（Michael Selig）表示。“几十年来，明尼苏达州的农民一直依赖与天气和作物相关的关键对冲产品来降低风险。沃尔兹州长选择将特殊利益置于首位，而将美国农民和创新者置于最后。”
An updated version of the prediction market bill allows trading on weather, an exception that followed pushback from the agricultural industry, which has historically used futures trading on weather as a hedge against storms and other inclement weather that can affect a harvest. Walz is expected to sign it soon. Besides Minnesota, bills cracking down on the prediction market industry have been introduced in seven other states, according to the National Conference of State Legislators. Two of those states, Hawaii and North Carolina, have pending bills seeking to ban the industry statewide.
预测市场法案的更新版本允许对天气进行交易，这一例外是在农业界的反对下做出的。农业界历来利用天气期货交易来对冲可能影响收成的风暴和其他恶劣天气。预计沃尔兹很快会签署该更新版本。据美国州议会会议（National Conference of State Legislators）称，除明尼苏达州外，其他七个州也已提出打击预测市场行业的法案。其中夏威夷州和北卡罗来纳州已有旨在全州范围内禁止该行业的法案正在审议中。
Experts say the cloud of legal uncertainty hanging over prediction markets apps have not slowed their rapid growth. “The states are using any tactic they can to go after the prediction market companies,” said Melinda Roth, a professor at Washington and Lee University’s School of Law, who studies the industry. “But they’ve embarked on a too big to fail strategy and have become quite mainstream,” she said. “It will be hard to put that genie back in the bottle.”
专家表示，笼罩在预测市场应用上的法律不确定性阴云并没有减缓它们的快速增长。“各州正在使用一切可能的策略来对付这些预测市场公司，”研究该行业的华盛顿与李大学法学院教授梅琳达·罗斯（Melinda Roth）说。“但它们已经采取了‘大到不能倒’的策略，并已成为主流，”她说。“很难再把这个精灵关回瓶子里了。”
A legal fight over the Minnesota ban is expected. Questions over whether states or the federal government should oversee the prediction market industry have already triggered more than 20 lawsuits. One of those cases, in Nevada, led to Kalshi pausing its sports betting in the state after a judge found it “indistinguishable” from state-regulated sports gambling. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed federal lawsuits against five states, including Arizona, Wisconsin and New York, attempting to override state regulators’ attempts to rein in the betting sites.
预计围绕明尼苏达州禁令的法律斗争将会发生。关于应由州政府还是联邦政府监管预测市场行业的争议已经引发了超过 20 起诉讼。其中内华达州的一起案件导致 Kalshi 在该州暂停了体育博彩业务，此前法官认定其与州监管的体育博彩“没有区别”。商品期货交易委员会已对包括亚利桑那州、威斯康星州和纽约州在内的五个州提起联邦诉讼，试图推翻州监管机构对这些博彩网站的限制尝试。
The CFTC has argued it has exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, even though former CFTC members and legal experts say bets on football games, words President Trump might say during a press conference and whether Ricky Martin will make an appearance at the Super Bowl are matters far outside its traditional scope.
CFTC 辩称其对预测市场拥有专属管辖权，尽管前 CFTC 成员和法律专家表示，对足球比赛、特朗普总统在新闻发布会上可能说的话以及瑞奇·马丁（Ricky Martin）是否会在超级碗上露面进行投注，这些事项远超出了其传统的监管范围。
In a statement to NPR, Kalshi spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana said banning prediction markets is a “blatant violation” of the law. “Minnesota banning prediction markets is like trying to ban the New York Stock Exchange,” said Diana, adding that “this actively harms users because it reduces competition and drives activity offshore.” A Polymarket spokesman told NPR that Minnesota’s ban runs counter to the federal government’s “established framework” for regulating prediction markets.
在给 NPR 的一份声明中，Kalshi 发言人伊丽莎白·戴安娜（Elisabeth Diana）表示，禁止预测市场是“公然违反”法律的行为。“明尼苏达州禁止预测市场就像试图禁止纽约证券交易所一样，”戴安娜说，并补充道，“这会积极损害用户利益，因为它减少了竞争并将活动推向海外。”Polymarket 的一位发言人告诉 NPR，明尼苏达州的禁令违背了联邦政府监管预测市场的“既定框架”。
Tribal-owned casinos operate in Minnesota, but online gambling and sports betting are not legal in the state. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have given access to sports betting to people in states where the activity is prohibited, since the Trump administration regulates the sites as a type of “event contract,” rather than gambling, which typically is overseen by state gaming authorities. Nonetheless, sports gambling powers the sites. On Kalshi, for instance, more than 85% of trading activity is related to a sporting event, some of those trades being “parlays,” high-risk wagers that multiple outcomes.
部落拥有的赌场在明尼苏达州运营，但在线赌博和体育博彩在该州并不合法。Kalshi 和 Polymarket 等预测市场为那些禁止此类活动的州的人们提供了参与体育博彩的途径，因为特朗普政府将这些网站监管为一种“事件合约”，而不是通常由州博彩管理机构监管的赌博。尽管如此，体育博彩仍是这些网站的动力来源。例如，在 Kalshi 上，超过 85% 的交易活动与体育赛事有关，其中一些交易是“连串投注”（parlays），即对多个结果进行的高风险投注。