Minnesota prohibits prediction markets, promptly gets sued by Trump admin
Minnesota prohibits prediction markets, promptly gets sued by Trump admin
明尼苏达州禁止预测市场，随即遭特朗普政府起诉
The Trump administration yesterday sued Minnesota in an attempt to block the first state law that prohibits prediction markets. While other states imposed restrictions on prediction markets, Minnesota banned them outright in a law signed by Gov. Tim Walz on Monday. 特朗普政府昨日起诉明尼苏达州，试图阻止该州首部禁止预测市场的法律。虽然其他州对预测市场实施了限制，但明尼苏达州州长蒂姆·沃尔兹（Tim Walz）周一签署的一项法律直接将其全面禁止。
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced a lawsuit against the state, saying that Minnesota’s “new legislation represents the most aggressive move by a state to shut down CFTC-regulated markets and undermine the federal regulatory regime set up by Congress more than 50 years ago.” 美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）宣布对该州提起诉讼，称明尼苏达州的“这项新立法代表了州政府关闭受CFTC监管的市场、破坏国会50多年前建立的联邦监管体制的最激进举措。”
“This Minnesota law turns lawful operators and participants in prediction markets into felons overnight,” CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said. “Minnesota farmers have relied on critical hedging products on weather and crop-related events for decades to mitigate their risks. Governor Walz chose to put special interests first and American farmers and innovators last.” “这项明尼苏达州的法律让预测市场的合法经营者和参与者一夜之间变成了重罪犯，”CFTC主席迈克尔·塞利格（Michael Selig）表示。“几十年来，明尼苏达州的农民一直依赖与天气和农作物相关的关键对冲产品来降低风险。沃尔兹州长选择将特殊利益置于首位，而将美国农民和创新者置于最后。”
The Minnesota law makes it a felony to create, operate, or advertise a prediction market. The CFTC asked the court for preliminary and permanent injunctions to prohibit Minnesota from enforcing the law, which is scheduled to take effect on August 1. The case was filed in US District Court for the District of Minnesota. 明尼苏达州的法律规定，创建、运营或宣传预测市场属于重罪。CFTC已请求法院发布初步和永久禁令，禁止明尼苏达州执行该法律，该法原定于8月1日生效。此案已在美国明尼苏达联邦地区法院提起。
CFTC asserts exclusive jurisdiction
CFTC主张专属管辖权
The Minnesota law defines a prediction market as “a system that allows consumers to place a wager on the future outcome of a specified event that is not determined or affected by the performance of the parties to the contract.” The law’s specified events include but are not limited to sports games, wars, mass shootings, acts of terrorism, elections, court cases, deaths or assassinations, weather conditions, and pop culture events such as awards or release dates. 明尼苏达州的法律将预测市场定义为“一种允许消费者对特定事件的未来结果进行投注的系统，该事件的结果不受合同当事人表现的决定或影响。”法律中列举的特定事件包括但不限于体育比赛、战争、大规模枪击事件、恐怖主义行为、选举、法庭案件、死亡或暗杀、天气状况以及诸如奖项或发布日期等流行文化事件。
Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison will defend the state law in court. “I’m very concerned about the harms of prediction markets on Minnesotans,” Ellison said in a statement provided to Ars. “Prediction markets are designed to be addictive and prey especially on young people and low-income folks. They help the ultra-rich get richer and the rest of us get poorer. My office and I are reviewing this lawsuit and will respond in court.” 明尼苏达州总检察长基思·埃里森（Keith Ellison）将在法庭上为该州法律辩护。埃里森在提供给Ars的一份声明中表示：“我非常担心预测市场对明尼苏达州民众造成的伤害。预测市场被设计成具有成瘾性，专门针对年轻人和低收入群体。它们帮助超级富豪变得更富有，而让我们其他人变得更穷。我和我的办公室正在审查这起诉讼，并将会在法庭上做出回应。”
The Commodity Exchange Act, a US law, gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over designated contract markets (DCMs). The CFTC argues that this preempts state laws regulating prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which are registered with the CFTC as DCMs. 美国法律《商品交易法》赋予了CFTC对指定合约市场（DCMs）的专属管辖权。CFTC认为，这优先于各州监管Kalshi和Polymarket等预测市场的法律，而这些平台已在CFTC注册为DCM。
The CFTC won a court ruling in April that prevented New Jersey from regulating prediction markets under laws that prohibit betting on college sports and require licenses to offer other types of sports wagers. In that case, the US Court of Appeals for the 3rd Circuit ruled that “Kalshi’s sports-related event contracts are swaps traded on a CFTC-licensed DCM, so the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction.” CFTC在4月份赢得了一项法院裁决，阻止了新泽西州根据禁止投注大学体育赛事及要求提供其他类型体育博彩需获得许可的法律来监管预测市场。在该案中，美国第三巡回上诉法院裁定：“Kalshi的体育相关事件合约是在CFTC许可的DCM上交易的掉期合约，因此CFTC拥有专属管辖权。”
Mixed results in other cases
其他案件结果不一
The 3rd Circuit case was decided by three judges in a 2-1 ruling. Cases in other circuits could turn out differently, though the CFTC yesterday boasted that it also won a ruling against Arizona. “In a lawsuit filed by the CFTC, a federal court in Arizona recently issued a preliminary injunction blocking Arizona from using its gambling laws to criminally prosecute prediction market operators,” the federal agency said. 第三巡回法院的案件由三名法官以2比1的投票结果裁定。其他巡回法院的案件结果可能会有所不同，尽管CFTC昨日声称其也赢得了针对亚利桑那州的裁决。该联邦机构表示：“在CFTC提起的一项诉讼中，亚利桑那州的一家联邦法院最近发布了初步禁令，阻止亚利桑那州利用其赌博法对预测市场运营商进行刑事起诉。”
“The Commission has also filed lawsuits against Connecticut, Illinois, and New York, and has filed amicus briefs in the US Court of Appeals for the Sixth and Ninth Circuits and the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts.” “委员会还对康涅狄格州、伊利诺伊州和纽约州提起了诉讼，并已向美国第六和第九巡回上诉法院以及马萨诸塞州最高司法法院提交了法庭之友陈述书。”
In the Arizona case, a US District Court judge decided “that federal law preempts state gambling laws insofar as they seek to regulate derivatives exchanged on markets regulated by the CFTC.” But the Arizona case is now stayed pending a ruling from the 9th Circuit appeals court, which last month heard oral arguments in a different case involving Nevada. 在亚利桑那州的案件中，一位美国联邦地区法院法官裁定，“联邦法律优先于各州的赌博法，只要这些法律试图监管在CFTC监管市场下交易的衍生品。”但亚利桑那州的案件目前处于中止状态，等待第九巡回上诉法院的裁决，该法院上个月听取了涉及内华达州的另一案件的口头辩论。
In the underlying Nevada case, Crypto.com sued the state after the Nevada Gaming Control Board sent it a cease-and-desist letter. The state board had decided that Crypto.com’s event contracts are sports wagers and thus subject to Nevada’s gambling laws. A District Court judge sided with Nevada, ruling that “Crypto’s event contracts are not ‘swaps’ falling within the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction.” 在内华达州的案件中，内华达州博彩控制委员会向Crypto.com发送了停止令，随后Crypto.com起诉了该州。州委员会认定Crypto.com的事件合约属于体育博彩，因此受内华达州赌博法管辖。一位地区法院法官站在了内华达州一边，裁定“Crypto的事件合约不属于CFTC专属管辖范围内的‘掉期合约’。”
Another judge must decide if event contracts are swaps
另一位法官必须裁定事件合约是否属于掉期合约
The CFTC lawsuit against Minnesota offers another chance for a judge to decide whether event contracts are swaps. The CFTC complaint argues that the contracts are a type of swap under the Commodity Exchange Act, which defines them as “any agreement, contract, or transaction” that, among other things, “is dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of an event or contingency associated with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence.” CFTC针对明尼苏达州的诉讼为法官提供了另一个机会，以裁定事件合约是否属于掉期合约。CFTC的诉状认为，根据《商品交易法》，这些合约属于掉期合约的一种，该法将其定义为“任何协议、合约或交易”，且除其他事项外，“取决于与潜在金融、经济或商业后果相关的事件或偶然事件的发生、不发生或发生程度。”
US senators recently voted to ban themselves from making bets on prediction markets. Some congressional candidates had been caught betting on their own campaigns, and a US Army soldier was recently arrested for insider trading after being accused of making Polymarket wagers on the timing of the military’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) has called for “legislation to rein in Trump administration officials who may be profiting off insider knowledge, including military operations.” 美国参议员最近投票决定禁止自己参与预测市场投注。一些国会候选人曾被发现为自己的竞选活动下注，一名美国陆军士兵最近因内幕交易被捕，他被指控在Polymarket上就美军抓捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolás Maduro）的时间进行投注。参议员亚历克斯·帕迪利亚（Alex Padilla，加州民主党人）呼吁“立法以约束那些可能利用内幕消息（包括军事行动）牟利的特朗普政府官员。”
While the CFTC is seeking public comment on how it should regulate prediction markets, the Trump administration isn’t likely to impose a major crackdown on them. Polymarket and Kalshi both have Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor, and a Trump Jr.-backed venture capital firm invested in Polymarket. Minnesota Rep. Emma Greenman, a Democrat who authored the state’s prediction market ban, said the bill “passed with bipartisan support in the House and Senate, showing broad support for protecting our…” 尽管CFTC正在就如何监管预测市场征求公众意见，但特朗普政府不太可能对其进行大规模打击。Polymarket和Kalshi都有小唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump Jr.）担任顾问，且一家由小特朗普支持的风险投资公司投资了Polymarket。明尼苏达州众议员艾玛·格林曼（Emma Greenman，民主党人）是该州预测市场禁令的起草者，她表示该法案“在众议院和参议院以两党支持通过，显示了保护我们……的广泛支持。”