It’s Officially Election Season in Trumpworld
It’s Officially Election Season in Trumpworld
特朗普阵营的选举季正式开启
Trumpworld is now turning its attention to the next set of primaries that could have a big impact on November’s midterm elections. So today it’s all eyes on the upcoming primary races Republican strategists tell me are next on the priority list for the White House: Texas, California, and Maine. 特朗普阵营（Trumpworld）目前正将注意力转向下一轮初选，这些初选可能会对11月的中期选举产生重大影响。因此，今天的目光都聚焦在共和党战略家们告知我的、白宫优先考虑的后续初选州：得克萨斯州、加利福尼亚州和缅因州。
Showdown in Texas
得克萨斯州的对决
President Donald Trump made a last-minute endorsement on Tuesday in the Senate primary runoff in Texas, throwing his support behind attorney general Ken Paxton over incumbent John Cornyn. Trump’s political strategists are already getting ready for any fallout. 周二，唐纳德·特朗普总统在得克萨斯州参议院初选决选中做出了一项临时的背书决定，支持总检察长肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton），而非现任参议员约翰·科宁（John Cornyn）。特朗普的政治战略家们已经开始为可能产生的后果做准备。
The primary is on May 26 and the president’s decision to make an endorsement just a week beforehand caught some of his own aides by surprise, sources familiar with the dynamics inside the White House told WIRED. But on Truth Social, Trump said he was backing Paxton because the candidate has “gone through a lot.” 初选定于5月26日举行，据熟悉白宫内部动态的消息人士告诉《连线》（WIRED），总统在选前仅一周做出背书的决定让其部分助手感到意外。但在“真实社交”（Truth Social）平台上，特朗普表示他支持帕克斯顿，因为这位候选人“经历了很多”。
Indeed Paxton has. In 2023, he faced impeachment charges; he took a plea deal in 2024 and paid roughly $300,000 in restitution—without admitting guilt—to avoid a felony securities fraud trial. And in 2025, he was accused of adultery by his wife, who filed for divorce on “biblical grounds.” He also faced a yearslong federal grand jury investigation into his alleged misuse of office, which the DOJ closed without charges in the last weeks of Joe Biden’s presidency. 帕克斯顿确实经历颇多。2023年，他面临弹劾指控；2024年，他达成认罪协议并支付了约30万美元的赔偿金——在未承认罪名的情况下——以避免重罪证券欺诈审判。2025年，他被妻子指控通奸，妻子以“圣经理由”提出离婚。他还面临联邦大陪审团长达数年的调查，涉及其涉嫌滥用职权的行为，该调查在乔·拜登总统任期的最后几周被司法部结案，未提出指控。
Paxton’s baggage means that should he defeat Cornyn, as many in Washington now expect following Trump’s endorsement, it will come with consequences for Republicans later in the midterms, and for the White House as it deals with Congress. 帕克斯顿的这些“包袱”意味着，如果他像华盛顿许多人在特朗普背书后所预期的那样击败科宁，这将对共和党随后的中期选举产生影响，也会影响白宫与国会的博弈。
Chief among the concerns is whether Paxton’s history and his framing as the MAGA candidate might be too objectionable to voters in the general election in November, making Democrats more energized because they see Paxton as easier to beat than Cornyn. 最主要的担忧在于，帕克斯顿的过往经历及其作为“MAGA（让美国再次伟大）候选人”的标签，是否会让11月大选中的选民感到难以接受，从而激发民主党人的斗志，因为他们认为帕克斯顿比科宁更容易击败。
As a result, if the Democratic candidate James Talarico can emulate Beto O’Rourke in 2018 and post big fundraising numbers from small-dollar donors, Republicans would need to respond by spending more themselves—money that could have been used for vulnerable Republicans in other races. 因此，如果民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）能效仿2018年的贝托·奥罗克（Beto O’Rourke），从小额捐赠者那里筹集到巨额资金，共和党人就必须投入更多资金进行回应——而这些钱本可以用于支持其他选区中处于劣势的共和党候选人。
Meanwhile, the White House will now have to focus on whether Trump’s endorsement will upend dynamics in the Senate for the next six months until the midterms, two longtime Republican campaign strategists told WIRED. 与此同时，两位资深的共和党竞选战略家告诉《连线》，白宫现在必须关注特朗普的背书是否会颠覆未来六个月直到中期选举期间参议院的动态。
Senator Bill Cassidy, apparently furious with Trump after losing his primary in Louisiana last week, has already started making clear his opposition to the president’s legislative priorities. The fear is that Cornyn may soon feel the same way. 参议员比尔·卡西迪（Bill Cassidy）在上周输掉路易斯安那州的初选后，显然对特朗普感到愤怒，并已开始明确表示反对总统的立法优先事项。人们担心科宁可能很快也会有同样的感觉。
“It is short-sighted thinking,” says one Republican strategist who worked on the Trump 2024 campaign and spoke on the condition of anonymity. “Cornyn has been a reliable vote on big issues and now Trump risks battles in the Senate.” “这是一种短视的思维，”一位曾参与特朗普2024年竞选活动、要求匿名的共和党战略家表示，“科宁在重大议题上一直是一张可靠的选票，而现在特朗普冒着在参议院引发冲突的风险。”
The problem with the slim 53-47 Senate majority is that it would only take two disaffected Republicans, in addition to Cassidy and Cornyn, to vote with Democrats to block Trump from using congressional funds to pay for his ballroom or further military action in Iran. 参议院53对47的微弱多数优势带来的问题是，除了卡西迪和科宁之外，只需再有两名不满的共和党人与民主党人投票，就能阻止特朗普动用国会资金来支付其宴会厅费用或在伊朗采取进一步军事行动。
Finally, Trumpworld is watching the possible fallout inside Trump’s orbit if Paxton wins. 最后，特朗普阵营正在密切关注如果帕克斯顿获胜，特朗普核心圈内可能产生的余波。
Trump’s 2024 campaign co-chief Chris LaCivita and 2024 pollster Tony Fabrizio both work on Cornyn’s campaign. Within minutes of Trump’s Paxton endorsement, LaCivita’s longtime nemesis Corey Lewandowski posted on X declaring the Cornyn campaign to be dead. 特朗普2024年竞选活动的联合负责人克里斯·拉西维塔（Chris LaCivita）和2024年民调专家托尼·法布里齐奥（Tony Fabrizio）都在为科宁的竞选工作。在特朗普宣布支持帕克斯顿后的几分钟内，拉西维塔的长期宿敌科里·莱万多夫斯基（Corey Lewandowski）就在X上发文，宣称科宁的竞选活动已经“死亡”。
The White House declined to comment on the races they were following, and referred WIRED to the president’s Paxton endorsement. 白宫拒绝就他们关注的选区发表评论，并将《连线》的询问转至总统对帕克斯顿的背书声明。
Curiosity in California
对加利福尼亚州的好奇
As the White House tracks the final week of campaigning in Texas, some campaign strategists in Trumpworld tell WIRED that they are also keeping an eye on what happens in the primary for the California gubernatorial race set for June 2. 在白宫追踪得克萨斯州竞选最后一周动态的同时，特朗普阵营的一些竞选战略家告诉《连线》，他们也在密切关注定于6月2日举行的加利福尼亚州州长初选。
The interest in the race has been mostly academic, because they expect the seat to remain solidly Democratic. But California uses a primary system where the two top candidates—regardless of their party—will advance to the general election in November. 对这场竞选的兴趣大多是学术性的，因为他们预计该席位将稳固地保持在民主党手中。但加州采用的是一种初选制度，即得票率最高的两名候选人——无论其党派如何——都将进入11月的大选。
Trump’s strategists are looking to see whether the fragmented Democratic field, which has no candidate endorsed by the current governor Gavin Newsom or former vice president Kamala Harris, might allow Republican Steve Hilton to advance to the general election. 特朗普的战略家们正在观察，由于民主党阵营四分五裂，且没有候选人获得现任州长加文·纽森（Gavin Newsom）或前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）的背书，这是否可能让共和党人史蒂夫·希尔顿（Steve Hilton）进入大选。
“Maybe Steve Hilton can pull it off because he’s a moderate and the Dems are all duds,” says one Trump 2024 strategist. “也许史蒂夫·希尔顿能成功，因为他是温和派，而民主党人都是些平庸之辈，”一位特朗普2024年的战略家说道。
The frontrunner Democrats have weathered torrid campaigns. President Joe Biden’s former Health and Human Services secretary Xavier Becerra had to disavow prior praise for the Church of Scientology, former congresswoman Katie Porter was caught on camera berating an aide to “Get out of my fucking shot!” during a taped meeting, and billionaire Tom Steyer paid for campaign boosts from influencers who did not properly disclose they were paid. 领先的民主党候选人们经历了一场场激烈的竞选。乔·拜登总统的前卫生与公众服务部部长泽维尔·贝塞拉（Xavier Becerra）不得不否认此前对科学教派的赞美；前女众议员凯蒂·波特（Katie Porter）在一次录制的会议中被镜头拍到斥责助手“滚出我的镜头！”；亿万富翁汤姆·斯泰尔（Tom Steyer）则为网红提供的竞选宣传付费，但这些网红并未适当披露他们收到了报酬。
Senate Majority in Maine
缅因州的参议院多数席位
Two Republican campaign strategists tell WIRED that they are also looking at the Democratic primary for senate in Maine because of the potential implications for the Senate majority. The primary is scheduled for June 9. 两位共和党竞选战略家告诉《连线》，他们也在关注缅因州的民主党参议院初选，因为这可能对参议院的多数席位产生影响。初选定于6月9日举行。
Their expectation is that Graham Platner will almost certainly win the Democratic primary to face incumbent senator Susan Collins, whose seat the GOP will likely need to retain for Republicans to keep the majority. While Platner’s margin of victory won’t really provide insight into how he performs in the general election since his opponent, governor Janet Mills, dropped out, Trumpworld will closely be tracking the results anyways, the strategists say. 他们预计格雷厄姆·普拉特纳（Graham Platner）几乎肯定会赢得民主党初选，从而面对现任参议员苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）。共和党若要保持多数席位，很可能需要保住柯林斯的席位。战略家们表示，虽然普拉特纳的获胜优势并不能真正反映他在大选中的表现（因为他的对手、州长珍妮特·米尔斯已经退选），但特朗普阵营无论如何都会密切关注结果。
This is an edition of Hugo Lowell’s Inner Loop newsletter. Read previous newsletters here. 这是雨果·洛厄尔（Hugo Lowell）的《Inner Loop》通讯。点击此处阅读往期通讯。