Why the 2026 Hurricane Season Might Not Be That Bad

为什么 2026 年飓风季可能不会那么糟糕

Atlantic hurricane season is almost upon us, and the early signs indicate it might be less active than usual. But that’s no reason to delete your weather app and ignore the forecast. 大西洋飓风季即将来临，早期迹象表明其活跃程度可能低于往年。但这并不是你卸载天气应用或无视预报的理由。

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting eight to 14 named tropical systems, of which three to six will become hurricanes and one to three will be Category 3 or higher. 美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）预测，今年将有 8 到 14 个获得命名的热带气旋系统，其中 3 到 6 个将发展为飓风，1 到 3 个将达到三级或以上强度。

“What’s driving this forecast is largely an El Niño event,” said NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs. “这一预测主要受厄尔尼诺现象驱动，”NOAA 局长尼尔·雅各布斯（Neil Jacobs）表示。

Characterized by a tongue of hot water stretching across the Pacific, El Niño is likely to emerge this summer. That stretch of warm ocean rearranges weather patterns around the world. In the case of the tropical Atlantic, El Niño stirs up winds that make it hard for hurricanes to spin up. Those that do can sometimes be torn apart by what’s going on in the upper atmosphere. (The opposite is true in the Pacific, and NOAA is predicting a very active season in that ocean basin.) 厄尔尼诺现象的特征是横跨太平洋的一股暖流，预计将于今年夏天出现。这片温暖的洋面会重塑全球的天气模式。对于热带大西洋而言，厄尔尼诺会搅动风场，使飓风难以形成。即便飓风生成，有时也会被高层大气中的气流撕裂。（太平洋的情况则相反，NOAA 预测该洋盆今年的飓风季将非常活跃。）

During the three past super El Niños, accumulated cyclone energy—a metric that factors in storms’ strength and longevity—was well below normal. 在过去三次超级厄尔尼诺现象期间，累积气旋能量（衡量风暴强度和持续时间的指标）均远低于正常水平。

That said, El Niño, even an extremely strong one, is only one of many factors that impact hurricane season. Hot local ocean temperatures can help storms form and gain strength, and the Atlantic is currently warmer than normal. 话虽如此，厄尔尼诺现象——即使是极强的厄尔尼诺——也只是影响飓风季的众多因素之一。局部海域的高温有助于风暴的形成和增强，而目前大西洋的海水温度高于往年平均水平。

At the same time, Sahara dust can gum up the atmosphere and inhibit storms from forming. It’s also notoriously hard to predict when plumes of it will kick up. That’s what happened last year, when a below-average number of named storms formed despite an active forecast. Despite the lower-than-expected activity, last year still spawned Hurricane Melissa, one of the strongest storms to ever make landfall in the Atlantic basin. 与此同时，撒哈拉沙漠的沙尘会干扰大气，抑制风暴形成。而且，预测沙尘暴何时扬起向来非常困难。去年就是这种情况，尽管预报显示活跃，但最终形成的命名风暴数量却低于平均水平。尽管活跃度低于预期，去年仍出现了“梅丽莎”（Melissa）飓风，这是大西洋盆地有史以来登陆的最强风暴之一。

All of which is to say that the seasonal forecast is a handy guide for what to expect, and it’s great for federal and state agencies to preposition supplies and resources. But it’s what happens with individual storms that ultimately matters. 综上所述，季节性预报只是一个方便的参考指南，有助于联邦和州政府提前部署物资和资源。但最终起决定性作用的，还是每一个具体风暴的发展情况。

“Even though we’re expecting a below average season in the Atlantic, it’s important to understand it only takes one,” Jacobs said, noting that even in quiet years, Category 5 storms have still made landfall. “尽管我们预计大西洋飓风季的活跃度将低于平均水平，但必须明白，只要一个风暴就足以造成严重影响，”雅各布斯说道。他指出，即使在平静的年份，也曾有过五级飓风登陆的先例。

The Trump administration has slashed staffing at NOAA and reduced the collection of some data, such as weather balloons, that can impact forecasts. Jacobs touted the value of new observations, including aerial drones that will be deployed operationally for the first time. 特朗普政府削减了 NOAA 的人员编制，并减少了气象气球等部分数据的收集，这可能会影响预报准确性。雅各布斯强调了新技术观测的价值，包括将首次投入业务运行的空中无人机。

NOAA has also ramped up the use of artificial intelligence weather models trained on historical data. During the 2025 hurricane season, the agency tested an experimental hurricane model developed with Google DeepMind. Late last year, it also rolled out a suite of AI weather models to use in operational forecasting, in addition to traditional weather models that use equations to forecast the weather. NOAA 还加强了对基于历史数据训练的人工智能天气模型的应用。在 2025 年飓风季期间，该机构测试了与 Google DeepMind 共同开发的实验性飓风模型。去年年底，除了使用方程进行天气预报的传统模型外，该机构还推出了一套用于业务预报的 AI 天气模型。

The agency says that the AI version of its flagship model provides better prediction of the tracks of tropical cyclones—the generic name for hurricanes—though it lags traditional weather models in predicting their intensity. 该机构表示，其旗舰模型的 AI 版本在预测热带气旋（飓风的统称）路径方面表现更佳，但在预测其强度方面仍落后于传统天气模型。