Soaring solar and a surge in hydro push more coal off the US grid
Soaring solar and a surge in hydro push more coal off the US grid
太阳能发电激增与水电增长，进一步将煤炭挤出美国电网
Last year, the first few months of data from the US grid suggested that fears of a data-center-driven surge in demand were becoming a reality. Demand had risen by about 3 percent, triggering a surge in coal, interrupting what had been a long downward trend. But over the course of the year, both trends slowed considerably. A year later, all of that seems to be in the past, as the US has returned to its normal pattern: slow growth, with renewables pushing coal off the grid.
去年，美国电网最初几个月的数据显示，人们对于数据中心驱动电力需求激增的担忧正在成为现实。当时电力需求增长了约 3%，引发了煤炭发电量的激增，中断了此前长期的下降趋势。但随着时间的推移，这两种趋势在去年下半年都显著放缓。一年后的今天，这一切似乎已成过去，美国已回归常态：电力需求缓慢增长，而可再生能源正持续将煤炭挤出电网。
The one oddity is that hydroelectric production has surged without a corresponding increase in capacity, likely due to unusually warm weather in the western US causing the snowpack to melt early. That may have consequences later in the year.
一个反常的现象是，水电产量在没有相应装机容量增加的情况下出现了激增，这很可能是由于美国西部异常温暖的天气导致积雪提前融化所致。这可能会在今年晚些时候产生后续影响。
Pushing fossil fuels out
挤出化石燃料
Overall demand in the US grew by only 1.5 percent in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period the year before. Often, changes in demand during this part of the year are driven by weather-related heating demand. But the US had an unusual combination set of weather conditions to start 2026, with the western half baking in unseasonal warm temperatures, while the eastern half suffered a deep freeze. So we’ll probably need data from more of the year before we read too much into the small rise in demand we’ve seen so far.
2026 年第一季度，美国总电力需求较去年同期仅增长了 1.5%。通常情况下，这一时期的需求变化主要受天气相关的供暖需求驱动。但 2026 年初，美国遭遇了一组异常的天气组合：西部地区处于反季节的高温炙烤中，而东部地区则遭受了严寒冰冻。因此，在得出过多结论之前，我们可能需要今年更多的数据来分析目前所见的微小需求增长。
As has been the case for a while now, the biggest trend on the US grid was the growth of solar. Compared to the same quarter the year earlier, solar was up by 24 percent. On its own, that was enough to offset 80 percent of the rising demand. Overall, the output of the major renewables (wind, solar, and hydro) grew by 11 percent compared to the same period the year prior, or about 1.8 times the growth in demand.
正如近段时间以来的情况一样，美国电网最大的趋势是太阳能的增长。与去年同期相比，太阳能发电量增长了 24%。仅此一项就足以抵消 80% 的电力需求增长。总体而言，主要可再生能源（风能、太阳能和水电）的产出较去年同期增长了 11%，约为需求增长幅度的 1.8 倍。
Given that renewable growth greatly exceeded demand, there was nowhere to go for fossil fuels but down. Overall, they saw a drop of about 3 percent year-over-year, with an absolute change similar in magnitude (if not sign) to the growth in demand. But natural gas use actually grew slightly in the first quarter, which meant coal took an even greater hit, with its use dropping by over 10 percent. That may change as the Persian Gulf conflict drives global natural gas prices higher, but it was not yet a major factor in this data.
鉴于可再生能源的增长远超需求，化石燃料的份额只能下降。总体而言，化石燃料发电量同比下降了约 3%，其绝对变化幅度（尽管方向相反）与需求增长量相当。但天然气的使用量在第一季度实际上略有增长，这意味着煤炭受到的冲击更大，其使用量下降了超过 10%。随着波斯湾冲突推高全球天然气价格，这种情况可能会发生变化，但这在目前的数据中尚未成为主要因素。
As mentioned above, the most unusual event was a surge in hydroelectric generation; it rose by 22 percent in the first quarter. In absolute terms, this was about the same as solar growth; in contrast to solar, however, it came without a building boom, as no major new dams have been completed. This happened at a time when winter temperatures were unusually warm in the west and likely represent the early loss of snowpack. (Though snowpack in the Colorado River basin is unusually low due to a lack of precipitation.) If that turns out to be a major factor, we’ll likely see a relative drop in productivity over the summer and autumn, canceling out the early surge.
如上所述，最不寻常的事件是水力发电的激增；第一季度增长了 22%。从绝对值来看，这与太阳能的增长大致相当；然而与太阳能不同的是，水电的增长并非源于建设热潮，因为目前没有大型新水坝完工。这种情况发生时，西部冬季气温异常温暖，很可能代表了积雪的提前流失。（尽管由于降水不足，科罗拉多河流域的积雪量异常偏低。）如果这被证明是一个主要因素，我们很可能会在夏季和秋季看到水电产量的相对下降，从而抵消掉早期的激增。
Against the current
逆流而行
Overall, fossil fuels continue to generate about half the electricity put onto the grid, a figure that doesn’t change when you account for small-scale solar projects that produce power that never appears on the grid. The three major renewable technologies accounted for more than a quarter of the total. When nuclear power is also considered for emissions-free electricity, the total exceeds 45 percent.
总体而言，化石燃料仍承担着电网约一半的电力供应，即使计入那些不并网的小型太阳能项目，这一比例也未改变。三大主要可再生能源技术占总发电量的四分之一以上。如果将核电也纳入无排放电力计算，总占比则超过了 45%。
The major change compared to last year’s data is that the surge in hydro moved it slightly ahead of solar, which had passed it as a source of US electricity in 2025. That’s very likely to reverse before the year is over. We’re still building lots of solar projects, its peak months of productivity are just starting, and as mentioned above, hydro is likely to drop considerably before the year is over.
与去年数据相比，主要变化在于水电的激增使其略微领先于太阳能，而太阳能在 2025 年曾超过水电成为美国主要的电力来源。这种情况很可能在今年结束前发生逆转。我们仍在建设大量太阳能项目，其生产高峰期才刚刚开始，且如前所述，水电产量很可能在年底前大幅下降。
The most notable thing about the trends in generation is how they are roughly the reverse of the Trump Administration’s priorities. Despite multiple attempts to block its development, renewable power continues to grow, and wind is likely to benefit from the opening of the US’s first large offshore wind farms in 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, coal is dropping even as the administration is ordering plants to stay open past their planned closure dates. A lawsuit is in progress to challenge the legality of those orders, and the fact that coal is dropping would seemingly support the view that the orders are unnecessary.
关于发电趋势最值得注意的一点是，它们与特朗普政府的优先事项大致相反。尽管多次试图阻挠其发展，可再生能源仍在持续增长，且风能很可能会受益于 2025 年和 2026 年美国首批大型海上风电场的投产。与此同时，尽管政府下令要求电厂在计划关闭日期后继续运营，煤炭发电量仍在下降。目前针对这些行政命令合法性的诉讼正在进行中，而煤炭发电量下降的事实似乎支持了这些命令是不必要的观点。