Elon Musk has given up on solar power (on Earth)
Elon Musk has given up on solar power (on Earth)
埃隆·马斯克已经放弃了（地球上的）太阳能
Has Elon Musk given up on Tesla’s Master Plans, on the electrified economy, on solar power as we know it? From the SpaceX IPO filing released this week, it sure seems like it. A recap for those not enmeshed in the Musk-verse: Tesla has released four Master Plans over the years, and while details have varied, the through line has been electrification of the economy. Musk put it best in his first edition: “the overarching purpose of Tesla motors…is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy towards a solar electric economy.”
埃隆·马斯克是否已经放弃了特斯拉的“总体规划”、放弃了电气化经济，以及我们所熟知的太阳能？从本周发布的 SpaceX IPO（首次公开募股）文件中看，情况似乎确实如此。对于那些不了解“马斯克宇宙”的人，我们来回顾一下：多年来，特斯拉发布了四份“总体规划”。尽管细节有所不同，但其核心主线始终是经济的电气化。马斯克在第一版规划中总结得最好：“特斯拉汽车的总体目标……是帮助加速从‘开采并燃烧’的碳氢化合物经济向‘太阳能电力’经济的转型。”
But recently, one of Musk’s companies, xAI, has embraced the mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy, using dozens of unregulated natural gas turbines to power its data centers with plans to buy $2.8 billion more, effectively cementing the fossil fuel’s role in the company’s AI operations. It’s a curious turn for a businessman who built his empire on clean energy — and who has no qualms directing his companies to buy from one another. SpaceX spent $131 million on 1,279 Cybertrucks, and xAI has spent $697 million in the last two years on Tesla Megapacks, it’s grid-scale battery storage systems that the company will use to manage peak loads. But so far, xAI hasn’t bought a materially significant number of solar panels from Tesla.
但最近，马斯克旗下的公司 xAI 却拥抱了“开采并燃烧”的碳氢化合物经济，使用数十台不受监管的天然气涡轮机为其数据中心供电，并计划再购买价值 28 亿美元的设备，这实际上巩固了化石燃料在公司人工智能业务中的地位。对于一位靠清洁能源建立商业帝国，且毫不避讳让旗下公司相互采购的商人来说，这是一个令人好奇的转变。SpaceX 花费 1.31 亿美元购买了 1,279 辆 Cybertruck，而 xAI 在过去两年中花费 6.97 亿美元购买了特斯拉的 Megapack（用于管理峰值负载的电网级电池储能系统）。但到目前为止，xAI 尚未从特斯拉购买过任何具有实质意义的太阳能电池板。
Solar power isn’t missing in the SpaceX filing, it’s just all concentrated on space, which the company touts as the future of data center power. Terrestrial solar garners a few mentions — not as a power source for xAI data centers but instead to show how much better SpaceX thinks space-based solar will be. It’s no secret that Musk and other Silicon Valley executives have become obsessed with space-based solar power. SpaceX says that space-based solar arrays can generate “more than five-times the energy” of terrestrial ones thanks to 24/7 illumination. As AI data centers have run into opposition here on Earth, CEOs like Musk have started mulling big server racks in space powered by that 24/7 sunshine. Hammer, meet nail.
SpaceX 的文件中并非没有提到太阳能，只是它全部集中在太空领域，该公司将其吹捧为数据中心能源的未来。地面太阳能虽然被提及了几次，但并非作为 xAI 数据中心的能源，而是为了展示 SpaceX 认为太空太阳能有多么优越。马斯克和其他硅谷高管对太空太阳能的痴迷已不是什么秘密。SpaceX 表示，得益于 24/7 全天候光照，太空太阳能阵列产生的能量是地面太阳能的“五倍以上”。随着人工智能数据中心在地球上遭遇阻力，像马斯克这样的首席执行官们开始考虑将大型服务器机架部署在太空中，利用那 24/7 的阳光供电。这简直是“一拍即合”。
Even if SpaceX is able to bring down the cost of boosting a data center into orbit, the economics are challenging at best. Power prices for Starlink satellites are multiples higher than what a terrestrial data center typically spends, and protecting chips from the rigors of space won’t be easy or cheap. It’s also not clear whether AI training can be distributed across multiple satellites, leaving a significant chunk of AI work earthbound. It’s not just one problem that SpaceX needs to solve, but many.
即使 SpaceX 能够降低将数据中心送入轨道的成本，其经济性充其量也充满挑战。星链（Starlink）卫星的电力成本是地面数据中心通常支出的数倍，而且保护芯片免受太空严酷环境的影响既不容易也不便宜。此外，目前尚不清楚人工智能训练是否可以分布在多颗卫星上，这意味着很大一部分人工智能工作仍需留在地球上完成。SpaceX 需要解决的不仅仅是一个问题，而是许多问题。
It’s likely that Musk considers xAI’s current data centers as stopgaps, that once SpaceX is able to loft gigawatts worth of servers into orbit — probably just a few years away, in his mind — he’ll scrap what’s here on the ground, natural gas turbines included and not have to think about NIMBYs anymore. The risk, of course, is that he’s wrong.
马斯克很可能将 xAI 目前的数据中心视为权宜之计。在他看来，一旦 SpaceX 能够将吉瓦（GW）级的服务器送入轨道——这可能只需几年时间——他就会废弃地面上的设施，包括天然气涡轮机，从而不必再为“邻避效应”（NIMBY）而烦恼。当然，风险在于他可能是错的。
It’s not just NIMBYs that Musk is worried about, though. He’s clearly concerned that computing demands from AI will quickly outstrip what we can provide here on Earth. Sprinkled throughout the SEC filing are references to “terawatt-scale annual AI compute growth,” which will require power to match. That’s a stunning figure when you consider that all the world’s data centers use around 40 gigawatts today. This is Musk’s “first principles” thinking in action. At some point, he assumed the world will need an additional terawatt worth of compute every year, and he worked back from there.
不过，马斯克担心的不仅仅是“邻避效应”。他显然担心人工智能的计算需求将迅速超过地球所能提供的能源。SEC（美国证券交易委员会）文件中散布着关于“太瓦（TW）级年度人工智能计算增长”的提法，这将需要相应的电力支持。考虑到目前全球所有数据中心的用电量仅为 40 吉瓦左右，这是一个惊人的数字。这就是马斯克“第一性原理”思维的体现。在某个时刻，他假设世界每年将需要额外一太瓦的计算能力，并以此为起点进行反向推导。
“We believe that third-party estimates on data center demand are constrained by the practical supply limitations that exist in a terrestrial context and the power shortage may be far greater than what research estimates suggest,” the company argues. Possible? Sure, I suppose. But consider that humanity today uses about 35,000 terawatt-hours of energy annually, or about 4 terawatts on a continuous basis. Energy demand has risen lately, and for AI, it probably is in an phase of exponential growth, which could either continue or level off. We have no way of knowing at this point, but if there’s one thing Musk is good at, it’s spotting a trend at its inflection point and extrapolating wildly.
该公司辩称：“我们认为，第三方对数据中心需求的研究受到地球环境下实际供应限制的制约，电力短缺可能远比研究估计的要严重。”这可能吗？当然，我想是有可能的。但请考虑一下，人类目前每年消耗约 35,000 太瓦时的能源，即持续功率约为 4 太瓦。能源需求近期有所上升，而对于人工智能来说，它可能正处于指数级增长阶段，这种增长可能会持续，也可能会趋于平缓。目前我们无法预知，但如果说马斯克有什么擅长之处，那就是在趋势的拐点发现它，并进行大胆的推演。
Here’s where Musk’s problems settle back down to Earth. I’m no rocket scientist, but I suspect that shipping solar panels on a flatbed truck uses less energy than sending them into orbit. Plus, space-ready solar panels will need to be manufactured at unprecedented scale. Not insurmountable problems, but also maybe a distraction. We’ve barely scratched solar’s potential here on Earth, for example. The perfect doesn’t have to be the enemy of the good. There’s plenty of room to improve things here on Earth even while we chase after our dreams in the stars. Just three years ago, Musk and his colleagues at Tesla released the “Master Plan Part 3,” which thoughtfully outlined a “plan to eliminate fossil fuels.” A good starting point might be xAI’s data centers.
这就是马斯克的问题回归现实的地方。我不是火箭科学家，但我怀疑用平板卡车运输太阳能电池板所消耗的能源，要比将它们送入轨道少得多。此外，太空级太阳能电池板需要以前所未有的规模进行制造。这些问题并非无法克服，但也可能是一种干扰。例如，我们在地球上对太阳能潜力的开发才刚刚起步。“完美”不必成为“优秀”的敌人。即使我们在追逐星辰大海的梦想时，地球上仍有巨大的改进空间。就在三年前，马斯克和他在特斯拉的同事发布了“总体规划第三部分”，其中深思熟虑地概述了“消除化石燃料的计划”。一个好的起点，或许就是 xAI 的数据中心。