Four Russian satellites are now within striking distance of an ICEYE radarsat
Four Russian satellites are now within striking distance of an ICEYE radarsat
四颗俄罗斯卫星现已进入芬兰-美国 ICEYE 雷达卫星的打击范围
At least four Russian military satellites changed their orbits to match that of a Finnish-American radar surveillance satellite in the last week, raising questions about Russia’s intentions amid an ever-expanding standoff high above Earth. The maneuvers were identified through open source orbital tracking data. 在过去一周里，至少有四颗俄罗斯军事卫星改变了轨道，以匹配一颗芬兰-美国雷达监视卫星的轨道，这引发了人们对俄罗斯在地球上方日益紧张的对峙局势中意图的质疑。这些机动动作是通过开源轨道跟踪数据识别出来的。
Greg Gillinger, a retired Air Force space intelligence officer, revealed the orbit changes Friday in a special edition of his Integrity Flash newsletter, published by Integrity ISR, a private business that provides “combat-proven operational support and elite training that enhances mission success across ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance), cyber, space, and targeting domains.” 退役空军太空情报官员 Greg Gillinger 在周五发布的《Integrity Flash》通讯特别版中披露了这些轨道变化。该通讯由 Integrity ISR 出版，这是一家提供“经实战验证的作战支持和精英培训，以增强 ISR（情报、监视和侦察）、网络、太空和目标定位领域任务成功率”的私营企业。
The Russian satellites in question, designated Kosmos 2610 through 2613, launched together on April 16 on a Soyuz-2.1b rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia. Over the last week or so, the four satellites adjusted their inclinations—the angles of their orbits to the equator—by less than a degree. That may sound insignificant, but such “plane change” maneuvers use up a lot of fuel. The delta-v, or velocity change, required for a plane change maneuver of this magnitude is equivalent to the impulse needed to raise altitude by more than 100 miles. 涉事的俄罗斯卫星编号为 Kosmos 2610 至 2613，于 4 月 16 日搭乘联盟-2.1b 火箭从俄罗斯北部的普列谢茨克航天发射场共同发射升空。在过去一周左右的时间里，这四颗卫星调整了它们的轨道倾角（即轨道与赤道的夹角），调整幅度不到一度。这听起来可能微不足道，但这种“轨道面变更”机动会消耗大量燃料。进行这种量级的轨道面变更所需的 delta-v（速度增量）相当于将轨道高度提升 100 多英里所需的冲量。
The upshot is that these four Russian satellites are now positioned to routinely pass near a commercial radar surveillance satellite operated by the Finnish-American company ICEYE. This imaging platform, named ICEYE-X36, is part of a fleet of satellites providing all-weather overhead radar images to the US military and European governments. ICEYE also provides imagery to Ukraine’s military in its fight against Russia. ICEYE’s co-founder and CEO, Rafal Modrzewski, met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last year. 结果就是，这四颗俄罗斯卫星现在的位置可以定期经过芬兰-美国公司 ICEYE 运营的一颗商业雷达监视卫星附近。这个名为 ICEYE-X36 的成像平台是为美国军方和欧洲各国政府提供全天候高空雷达图像的卫星群的一部分。ICEYE 还为乌克兰军队对抗俄罗斯提供图像支持。ICEYE 的联合创始人兼首席执行官 Rafal Modrzewski 去年曾与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基会面。
According to Gillinger, the cross-track distances between the four Russian satellites and ICEYE-X36 now range between about 500 meters (1,640 feet) and 22 kilometers (13.7 miles). All of this is taking place in polar orbit at an altitude of approximately 340 miles (547 kilometers). Russian satellite operators are now in a position to close in on the ICEYE satellite with “minor adjustments” in “satellite eccentricity and average altitudes,” Gillinger wrote in his newsletter. A fifth satellite from the same Russian launch last month now appears to be performing a similar set of maneuvers to move closer to ICEYE-X36. 据 Gillinger 称，这四颗俄罗斯卫星与 ICEYE-X36 之间的横向距离目前在约 500 米（1640 英尺）到 22 公里（13.7 英里）之间。所有这些活动都发生在高度约为 340 英里（547 公里）的极地轨道上。Gillinger 在通讯中写道，俄罗斯卫星操作员现在可以通过对“卫星偏心率和平均高度”进行“微调”，从而靠近 ICEYE 卫星。上个月同一批次发射的第五颗卫星目前似乎也在执行类似的机动动作，以靠近 ICEYE-X36。
We know little about what these particular Kosmos satellites can do. Perhaps, as one retired US military space official recently told Ars, this is another example of Russia rattling a dull saber. Russian military officials seem to enjoy probing US and allied forces, often flying strategic bombers near US and European airspace. This same behavior now appears to extend into space, with Russia’s launch of several military spacecraft shadowing the US government’s most sophisticated spy satellites in low-Earth orbit several hundred miles above the planet. US officials believe at least some of these Russian satellites are part of an anti-satellite weapons program. 我们对这些特定的 Kosmos 卫星的功能知之甚少。正如一位美国退役军事太空官员最近告诉 Ars 的那样，这或许是俄罗斯虚张声势的又一个例子。俄罗斯军方官员似乎喜欢试探美国及其盟军，经常派遣战略轰炸机在美欧领空附近飞行。这种行为现在似乎延伸到了太空，俄罗斯发射了几颗军事航天器，在地球上方数百英里的近地轨道上跟踪美国政府最先进的间谍卫星。美国官员认为，其中至少部分俄罗斯卫星属于反卫星武器计划。
Targeting a single spacecraft, such as ICEYE-X36, in a constellation of similar imaging satellites would do little to inhibit the access of Ukraine or other Western nations to radar surveillance imagery. ICEYE, itself, operates dozens more radar imaging satellites. Unlike optical spy satellites, radars provide imagery day and night, regardless of cloud cover. But Russia’s maneuvers to match the plane of ICEYE-X36’s orbit appear to be intentional. Russian military satellites have conducted similar operations to move into “co-planar” orbits with Keyhole-class spy satellites owned by the National Reconnaissance Office. 针对像 ICEYE-X36 这样的一颗卫星进行打击，对于由类似成像卫星组成的卫星群来说，几乎无法阻碍乌克兰或其他西方国家获取雷达监视图像。ICEYE 本身还运营着数十颗雷达成像卫星。与光学间谍卫星不同，雷达卫星无论云层覆盖如何，都能昼夜提供图像。但俄罗斯为匹配 ICEYE-X36 轨道面而进行的机动似乎是有意为之。俄罗斯军事卫星此前曾进行过类似操作，进入与美国国家侦察局（NRO）拥有的“锁眼”（Keyhole）级间谍卫星“共面”的轨道。
“We do not know Russia’s intentions or the capabilities of these particular satellites,” Gillinger wrote. “However, maneuvering into a co-planar orbit is alarming. Plane matching is the first (and most fuel expensive) step to conducting Rendezvous Proximity Operations (RPO), likely necessary for the Russian satellites to target (kinetically or non-kinetically) ICEYE-X36. We also do not know the satellites’ total fuel capacity, however the expenditure [during these maneuvers] is evidence the satellites are capable of conducting high-energy maneuvers. This capability is not common for satellites conducting typical Earth observation, signal collection, or communications missions.” “我们不知道俄罗斯的意图或这些特定卫星的能力，”Gillinger 写道。“然而，机动进入共面轨道是令人担忧的。轨道面匹配是执行交会近距离操作（RPO）的第一步（也是最耗燃料的一步），这很可能是俄罗斯卫星对 ICEYE-X36 进行（动能或非动能）打击的必要条件。我们也不知道这些卫星的总燃料容量，但（在这些机动过程中）的消耗证明这些卫星有能力进行高能机动。这种能力对于执行典型地球观测、信号收集或通信任务的卫星来说并不常见。”
ICEYE did not respond to questions from Ars on Friday; the company announced in January that it was expanding its partnership with the Ukrainian military. ICEYE’s newest satellite capture images with a resolution of up to 16 centimeters, about the size of a grapefruit. “ICEYE is proud and humbled to have supported Ukraine’s defense teams with reliable, near-real-time space-based intelligence since the beginning of the invasion,” said John Cartwright, senior vice president of data product at ICEYE. “This agreement strengthens assured access to our high-resolution SAR imagery, helping Ukraine make decisions faster and with greater confidence.” ICEYE 周五未回应 Ars 的置评请求；该公司在 1 月份宣布正在扩大与乌克兰军方的合作关系。ICEYE 最新的卫星拍摄的图像分辨率高达 16 厘米，大约是一个葡萄柚的大小。“自入侵开始以来，ICEYE 很荣幸能为乌克兰国防团队提供可靠的、近乎实时的天基情报，”ICEYE 数据产品高级副总裁 John Cartwright 表示。“该协议加强了对我们高分辨率合成孔径雷达（SAR）图像的可靠访问，帮助乌克兰更快、更自信地做出决策。”