Starship’s path to reusability looks murky after SpaceX’s S-1
Starship’s path to reusability looks murky after SpaceX’s S-1
SpaceX S-1 文件披露：星舰（Starship）的可重复使用之路前途未卜
SpaceX’s recent IPO and Starship rocket test flight delivered two big data points that offer a realistic vision for the coming years — and one that may disappoint both the company’s boosters and its critics. Hidden behind the fantastic expectations for AI enterprise profits and plans for a moon base is a more grounded reality: An expendable Starship could keep SpaceX in business, but doesn’t achieve the cost reductions — or frontier business models — Elon Musk is betting on.
SpaceX 最近的 IPO（首次公开募股）和星舰火箭的试飞提供了两个重要数据点，为未来几年勾勒出了一幅现实的图景——但这幅图景可能会让该公司的支持者和批评者都感到失望。在对 AI 企业利润和月球基地计划的宏大预期背后，隐藏着一个更务实的现实：一次性使用的星舰或许能维持 SpaceX 的运营，但无法实现埃隆·马斯克所押注的成本削减，也无法支撑他所构想的前沿商业模式。
SpaceX is many businesses, but right now only one is producing significant revenue. Starlink, its satellite communications network, is the tent pole of the firm’s public offering. The top line is fairly incredible; SpaceX’s connectivity business generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year, the bulk of the company’s earnings. But underneath, you can see the capital expenditure treadmill that scared previous entrepreneurs away from this model. SpaceX needs to replace about a fifth of its satellites every year just to maintain its current level of service. It has invested more in its satellite business ($11.4 billion) since the beginning of 2023 than it has building Starship and its launch infrastructure ($8.4 billion).
SpaceX 旗下拥有多项业务，但目前只有一项产生了可观的收入。其卫星通信网络 Starlink 是该公司上市的支柱。其营收数据相当惊人：SpaceX 的连接业务去年创造了 114 亿美元的收入，占据了公司收益的大头。但在光鲜的表面之下，你可以看到那种曾让早期创业者对该模式望而却步的“资本支出跑步机”：SpaceX 每年需要更换约五分之一的卫星，才能维持目前的运营水平。自 2023 年初以来，该公司在卫星业务上的投入（114 亿美元）已经超过了其在建造星舰及其发射基础设施上的投入（84 亿美元）。
SpaceX’s S-1 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission predicts costs will continue growing, but expects that improvements to its technology will allow it to reduce them as a percentage of its revenue. Musk has said that Starship is the key to keeping Starlink’s costs under control, even saying that SpaceX could go bankrupt without the vehicle’s ability to replace those satellites cheaply. In that context, a note that stood out in SpaceX’s S-1 was the first acknowledgment that full reusability of Starship isn’t necessary to launch the new generation of Starlink satellites.
SpaceX 向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的 S-1 文件预测，成本将持续增长，但预计技术改进将使其成本占营收的比例下降。马斯克曾表示，星舰是控制 Starlink 成本的关键，甚至称如果没有星舰低成本更换卫星的能力，SpaceX 可能会破产。在此背景下，SpaceX S-1 文件中一个引人注目的细节是：该公司首次承认，发射新一代 Starlink 卫星并不一定需要星舰实现完全可重复使用。
But without full reusability, the cost will go up, making the business less attractive. “If this reusability is not achieved then the cost of launch on Starship may not be much lower than Falcon 9, even if the full 100 ton capability is realized (which is by no means a foregone conclusion),” satellite market analyst Tim Farrar wrote in a note to clients last week. “The cost per launch may be as much as $100M (i.e. $1000 per kg) while tempo remains constrained by the rate at which second stages can be manufactured and first stages can be refurbished.”
但如果没有完全可重复使用，成本就会上升，从而降低该业务的吸引力。卫星市场分析师 Tim Farrar 上周在给客户的报告中写道：“如果无法实现这种可重复使用性，那么星舰的发射成本可能不会比猎鹰 9 号低多少，即使实现了 100 吨的满载能力（这绝非定局）。单次发射成本可能高达 1 亿美元（即每公斤 1000 美元），而发射频率仍受限于二级火箭的制造速度和一级火箭的翻新速度。”
Last week’s test flight of the third version of Starship and its booster bore those concerns out. The newest rocket’s maiden flight saw issues with a key capability for reusability — relighting the Raptor rocket engines on both the booster and Starship in order to make a controlled return to Earth. Starship did, however, deploy a set of dummy satellites and two test vehicles in space. That helps square SpaceX’s prediction that it will begin launching a new generation of higher-throughput Starlink satellites 60 at a time, a twentyfold increase in capacity compared to a single Falcon 9 launch, later this year.
上周第三版星舰及其助推器的试飞证实了这些担忧。这枚最新火箭的首飞在实现可重复使用的关键能力上出现了问题——即无法重新点燃助推器和星舰上的猛禽发动机，以实现受控返回地球。不过，星舰确实在太空中部署了一组模拟卫星和两台测试飞行器。这有助于印证 SpaceX 的预测：即今年晚些时候，该公司将开始一次性发射 60 颗新一代高吞吐量 Starlink 卫星，其容量是单次猎鹰 9 号发射的 20 倍。
At first glance a classic example of Musk’s timelines, it may actually be an expectation that initial launches will expend the Starship. If so, SpaceX might not be able to count on as much free satellite cash as expected, and its plans to launch space data centers will become untenable until the rocket is reusable.
乍一看，这似乎是马斯克一贯的“时间表风格”，但实际上这可能意味着最初的发射任务将把星舰作为一次性耗材。如果是这样，SpaceX 可能无法像预期的那样获得充足的卫星业务现金流，而在火箭实现可重复使用之前，其发射太空数据中心的计划也将变得难以实现。
Starlink growth slows
Starlink 增长放缓
At the same time, SpaceX’s S-1 shows that Starlink’s growth is slowing. SpaceX’s total addressable market calculation is based on its ability to offer service to every fixed-broadband subscriber or mobile handset in the world. That’s unlikely, though, because Starlink isn’t competing on price with terrestrial fiber. The rest of the document suggests SpaceX continues to see direct-to-device as a complement, rather than a replacement, for terrestrial mobile providers.
与此同时，SpaceX 的 S-1 文件显示 Starlink 的增长正在放缓。SpaceX 对其潜在市场总额（TAM）的计算基于其能够为全球每一位固定宽带用户或移动手机用户提供服务的能力。然而，这不太可能实现，因为 Starlink 在价格上无法与地面光纤竞争。文件其余部分表明，SpaceX 仍将“直连设备”（direct-to-device）视为地面移动运营商的补充，而非替代品。
Starlink has just over 10 million subscribers, more than any other satellite communications network. But Farrar notes the rate of user growth fell over the course of the first quarter of 2026. Quilty Space, a space consulting firm, projected earlier this year that SpaceX would end the year with 16.8 million subscribers. That would require the company’s quarterly growth rate to roughly double from where it is now, which may be difficult after recent price increases.
Starlink 目前拥有超过 1000 万用户，超过了任何其他卫星通信网络。但 Farrar 指出，2026 年第一季度用户增长率有所下降。太空咨询公司 Quilty Space 今年早些时候预测，SpaceX 年底用户数将达到 1680 万。这意味着该公司的季度增长率需要比现在翻一番，而在最近涨价之后，这可能非常困难。
Growth matters for SpaceX because its new Starlink users are paying less than previous ones. Starlink’s average revenue per user has fallen from $99 in 2023 to $66 in the first quarter of 2026 — a change propelled by its expansion into new international markets where it can’t charge as much as it does in developed economies. Without a fast-growing user base, each new satellite launched is making less money.
增长对 SpaceX 至关重要，因为其新用户的付费能力低于老用户。Starlink 的每用户平均收入（ARPU）已从 2023 年的 99 美元降至 2026 年第一季度的 66 美元——这一变化源于其向新的国际市场扩张，在这些市场，它无法像在发达经济体那样收取高额费用。如果没有快速增长的用户群，每一颗新发射的卫星所带来的收益都在减少。
Increased competition also threatens Starlink. Amazon’s Leo network is approaching the scale required to put pressure on SpaceX, although it is waiting for the Federal Communications Commission to extend a deadline that requires it to launch 1,600 internet satellites by July. Data in the SpaceX filing presents a gloomy growth forecast for the company as well as rivals like Blue Origin. Farrar says that if SpaceX — much further ahead than any other company — is seeing slowing demand, that may signal the market for space broadband is smaller than the players anticipated.
日益激烈的竞争也威胁着 Starlink。亚马逊的 Leo 网络正接近足以对 SpaceX 构成压力的规模，尽管它正在等待美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）延长其在 7 月前发射 1600 颗互联网卫星的最后期限。SpaceX 文件中的数据为该公司及其竞争对手（如蓝色起源）呈现了黯淡的增长前景。Farrar 表示，如果连遥遥领先于其他公司的 SpaceX 都出现了需求放缓，这可能预示着太空宽带市场的规模比各参与方预期的要小。