The skeptic’s guide to humanoid robots going viral on the Internet

互联网疯传人形机器人：一份给怀疑论者的指南

It may appear that humanoid robots capable of handling any task have almost arrived—especially when tech companies showcase them performing acrobatic feats or handling household chores. But there is still a significant gap between these robot demonstrations and proving that the same robots can reliably and repeatedly manage such tasks in the real world.

看起来，能够处理任何任务的人形机器人似乎已经近在咫尺——尤其是当科技公司展示它们表演杂技或处理家务时。然而，在这些机器人演示与证明它们能够在现实世界中可靠且重复地完成这些任务之间，仍然存在巨大的鸿沟。

The latest wave of robot videos can be particularly tricky, given the human tendency to anthropomorphize objects with a humanoid figure. A robot arm doing a dance move may simply seem “cool,” but a humanoid robot doing the same dance move can trigger more misleading assumptions, said Jonathan Hurst, cofounder of Agility Robotics and a robotics researcher at Oregon State University.

最近涌现的机器人视频可能极具误导性，因为人类倾向于将人形物体拟人化。Agility Robotics 联合创始人、俄勒冈州立大学机器人研究员乔纳森·赫斯特（Jonathan Hurst）表示，一只机械臂跳舞可能看起来只是“很酷”，但一个人形机器人做同样的动作，却可能引发更多误导性的假设。

“People automatically extrapolate and assume that the robot that looks like a person can do all the things that a person who can dance could do—which is not true,” Hurst told Ars. “But a lot of the startup companies do kind of prey on that for being able to raise a lot of money.”

“人们会自动推断并认为，看起来像人的机器人就能做所有会跳舞的人能做的事——但这并非事实，”赫斯特告诉 Ars。“但许多初创公司确实利用了这种心理来筹集大量资金。”

One of the biggest challenges is developing robots that can generalize their skills across many different conditions and environments in the same way that humans can, said Sergey Levine, a computer scientist at the University of California, Berkeley, and cofounder of the AI and robotics company Physical Intelligence. But that degree of generalization is practically impossible to capture within a single robot demonstration.

加州大学伯克利分校计算机科学家、人工智能与机器人公司 Physical Intelligence 的联合创始人谢尔盖·莱文（Sergey Levine）表示，最大的挑战之一是开发出能够像人类一样，在多种不同条件和环境下推广其技能的机器人。但这种程度的泛化能力在单一的机器人演示中几乎是不可能体现出来的。

“Maybe the robot can pour a glass of wine, but can it pour it out of any bottle and into any glass in any environment?” Levine said. “That’s actually a lot harder than having a robot do a backflip in one stage demo.”

“也许机器人能倒一杯酒，但它能在任何环境下从任何瓶子里倒进任何杯子里吗？”莱文说。“这实际上比让机器人在舞台演示中做一个后空翻要难得多。”

The real measure for robotic capabilities involves conducting “quantitative, large-scale evaluations” in real-world environments, Levine explained. “There’s always a gap between the kind of things that somebody can show in a demo and what the real capability of the robot is,” he said.

莱文解释说，衡量机器人能力的真正标准在于在现实环境中进行“定量、大规模的评估”。他说：“演示中展示的内容与机器人的真实能力之间总是存在差距。”

What to watch out for

需要注意什么

There are several things to keep in mind when watching the surge of robot demonstration videos and even livestreams. First, such robotic demonstrations are not necessarily indicative of robots operating autonomously without human control or oversight, said Dipam Patel, a PhD candidate in computer science at Purdue University and a research assistant at the US Army DevCom Army Research Lab.

在观看大量机器人演示视频甚至直播时，有几点需要牢记。普渡大学计算机科学博士候选人、美国陆军 DevCom 陆军研究实验室研究助理迪帕姆·帕特尔（Dipam Patel）表示，首先，这些机器人演示并不一定意味着机器人是在没有人类控制或监督的情况下自主运行的。

Many demonstrations still rely on human operators directly controlling the robots’ actions through teleoperation. “Unless a research paper or a company is explicitly mentioning that [the robot] is completely autonomous, you should take it with a very big pinch of salt,” Patel told Ars.

许多演示仍然依赖人类操作员通过远程操作直接控制机器人的动作。“除非研究论文或公司明确提到（机器人）是完全自主的，否则你应该对演示内容持极大的怀疑态度，”帕特尔告诉 Ars。

Another question to consider is whether the demonstration shows robots tackling a completely new test environment for the first time, or whether the robots are simply repeating a task they had already learned to do in that specific training environment. The new test environment would be significantly more impressive at showcasing robots capable of doing tasks autonomously in a generalized way, Patel said.

另一个需要考虑的问题是，演示展示的是机器人首次应对全新的测试环境，还是仅仅在重复它们在特定训练环境中已经学会的任务。帕特尔说，全新的测试环境在展示机器人以通用方式自主完成任务的能力方面，会更有说服力。

It is also worth checking the video playback speed for any robot demonstration, because “usually the robots are very slow” for safety and other reasons, Patel said. Companies may sometimes disclose that a robot demonstration video is running at two times or four times normal speed—meaning the robot could be taking twice as long or four times as long as a human to do the same task.

帕特尔还指出，检查机器人演示视频的播放速度也很有必要，因为出于安全和其他原因，“机器人通常动作非常缓慢”。公司有时会披露演示视频是以两倍或四倍速播放的——这意味着机器人完成同样任务所需的时间可能是人类的两倍甚至四倍。

Robot demonstration videos can also vary wildly in their informative value and transparency. Some are clearly intended to be performative entertainment clips that can go viral on social media, or polished promotional videos from companies seeking new clients and investors. Others may provide more of a behind-the-scenes look at the robot training process while acknowledging robot mistakes along the way.

机器人演示视频的信息价值和透明度也参差不齐。有些视频显然旨在成为社交媒体上的表演性娱乐片段，或者是由寻求新客户和投资者的公司制作的精美宣传片。而另一些视频则可能更多地展示机器人训练过程的幕后花絮，并承认过程中出现的错误。

But even if a robot demo video appears incredibly impressive and authentic while coming from a more reputable company or research lab, just keep in mind that it’s still a small glimpse of the bigger picture. The real indicators of progress in robotic capabilities are not so easily packaged for Internet audiences.

但即使一段机器人演示视频看起来令人印象深刻且真实，且来自声誉良好的公司或研究实验室，也要记住，这仍然只是全貌的一小部分。机器人能力进步的真正指标，并不能轻易地包装给互联网受众。