This Summer Travel Season Could Forever Alter the Future of Sustainable Aviation Fuel

这个夏季旅游季可能会永远改变可持续航空燃料的未来

Late last year, Vancouver-based aviation analyst Mark Miller bought airplane tickets to bring his family of four to Rome this summer. The Millers would spend Italy’s high season trawling the city’s ancient ruins, exploring the Vatican, and swooping down to Sardinia to experience the island’s dramatic sea cliffs, white sand beaches, and ancient limestone caves. 去年年底，常驻温哥华的航空分析师马克·米勒（Mark Miller）购买了机票，计划今年夏天带一家四口去罗马旅行。米勒一家本打算在意大利的旅游旺季游览古城遗迹、探索梵蒂冈，并前往撒丁岛，体验那里壮观的海崖、白沙滩和古老的石灰岩洞穴。

Five months later, Miller, a commentator for CBC News, watched in disbelief as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, through which nearly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply flows. 五个月后，身为加拿大广播公司（CBC）新闻评论员的米勒难以置信地看着伊朗封锁了霍尔木兹海峡——这条连接波斯湾和阿曼湾的关键水道，全球近20%的石油供应都要经此运输。

The unprecedented closure sent global stockpiles of jet fuel plunging, depleting strategic reserves in the UK, Germany, and France. “Reports out of Europe said that the fuel supply could run low by end of June, which was about the time we would have been there,” Miller says. “The last thing we wanted to do is get stuck in Europe.” 这次史无前例的封锁导致全球航空燃油库存骤降，英国、德国和法国的战略储备也随之耗尽。“来自欧洲的报告称，燃油供应可能会在6月底告急，那正好是我们计划在那里的时间，”米勒说，“我们最不想发生的事情就是被困在欧洲。”

The supply shortage has spread to the US as the war in Iran continues. On Thursday, an American Airlines spokesperson told USA Today that it would temporarily suspend several domestic routes in August and September due to rising jet fuel prices. 随着伊朗战争的持续，供应短缺已蔓延至美国。周四，美国航空的一位发言人告诉《今日美国》，由于航空燃油价格上涨，公司将在8月和9月暂时停飞多条国内航线。

In the end, the Millers canceled their trip, alongside millions of summer travelers performing the same mental calculus. With carriers canceling thousands of flights in advance of potential fuel shortages, Miller and other analysts have turned their attention to sustainable aviation fuel, commonly called SAF, which can cut emissions by up to 80 percent but costs two to five times the price of regular jet fuel. United Airlines, Delta, American, and Cathay Pacific are among the carriers now using SAF. 最终，米勒一家取消了行程，与数百万面临同样考量的夏季游客一样。由于航空公司在潜在的燃油短缺前取消了数千个航班，米勒和其他分析师将目光转向了可持续航空燃料（简称SAF）。这种燃料可减少高达80%的排放，但成本是普通航空燃油的2到5倍。目前，美联航、达美航空、美国航空和国泰航空等航空公司都在使用SAF。

“Right now, conventional jet fuel looks to be twice as expensive going into the summer travel season,” says Lauren Riley, chief sustainability officer for United Airlines. “That makes SAF look like a more competitive alternative financially. In fact, it’s the closest to parity we’ve ever seen. This is the first time in my career that we’re actually having conversations about it.” “目前看来，进入夏季旅游季后，传统航空燃油的价格翻了一番，”美联航首席可持续发展官劳伦·莱利（Lauren Riley）表示，“这使得SAF在财务上看起来更具竞争力。事实上，这是我们见过的最接近价格平价的一次。这是我职业生涯中第一次真正开始讨论这个问题。”

Before the blockade, the summer of 2026 was shaping up to be a post-Covid comeback for commercial aviation. With the FIFA World Cup, America’s semiquincentennial celebrations, and Harry Styles’ “Together, Together” world tour on tap, demand for summer travel had never been stronger, Riley says. 莱利表示，在封锁之前，2026年夏季本应是商业航空在疫情后的全面复苏期。随着国际足联世界杯、美国建国250周年庆典以及哈里·斯泰尔斯（Harry Styles）“Together, Together”世界巡回演唱会的举办，夏季旅游需求从未如此强劲。

With rising prices and increased demand, the airline industry is hopeful that SAF can help bridge the gap. Made from renewable resources like used cooking oil and leftover french fry grease, SAF can be blended with conventional jet fuel as a substitute without any need to alter the aircraft’s design. 面对价格上涨和需求增加，航空业寄希望于SAF能填补这一缺口。SAF由废弃食用油和炸薯条剩下的油脂等可再生资源制成，可以与传统航空燃油混合使用，无需对飞机设计进行任何改动。

US conglomerate World Energy began converting agricultural waste, fats, oils, and greases into SAF at its production facility in Paramount, California in 2016, becoming the fuel’s first commercial-scale producer. “There’s hardly any difference downstream of the treatment process and the blending process,” says Joseph Ran, vice president of asset optimization for World Energy. “You just add an additional blending step of mixing the SAF and the fossil fuel.” 美国企业集团World Energy于2016年开始在其位于加利福尼亚州派拉蒙的生产设施中将农业废弃物、脂肪、油类和油脂转化为SAF，成为该燃料的首个商业规模生产商。“在处理过程和混合过程的下游，几乎没有什么区别，”World Energy资产优化副总裁约瑟夫·兰（Joseph Ran）说，“你只需要增加一个将SAF与化石燃料混合的额外步骤。”

The technology is simple, according to Ran. The problem is creating a reliable supply. Bottlenecks such as scarcity of raw materials called feedstocks, complex infrastructure, and expensive production processes have kept the industry’s use of SAF below 1 percent of total global jet fuel consumption. World Energy, which supplied SAF to United Airlines, Air France, KLM, and others ended SAF production last year “as part of an overall effort to better focus company resources,” according to a company spokesperson. 据兰介绍，这项技术很简单。问题在于如何建立可靠的供应。原材料（即原料）匮乏、基础设施复杂以及生产过程昂贵等瓶颈，使得SAF在行业内的使用量一直低于全球航空燃油总消耗量的1%。据公司发言人称，曾为美联航、法航、荷航等提供SAF的World Energy去年停止了SAF生产，这是“为了更好地集中公司资源”的整体努力的一部分。

But this year’s oil crisis has highlighted the need for an alternative to jet fuel. “The closing of the strait has been a very vivid example of overreliance on a single commodity,” says Scott Lewis, president of World Energy’s Net-Zero Services group. In April, United formed a consortium with Microsoft, DSV, and Houston-based multinational energy company Phillips 66 to scale production and unlock 11 million gallons of SAF. 但今年的石油危机凸显了寻找航空燃油替代品的必要性。“海峡的关闭是一个非常生动的例子，说明了对单一商品的过度依赖，”World Energy净零服务集团总裁斯科特·刘易斯（Scott Lewis）说。今年4月，美联航与微软、DSV以及总部位于休斯顿的跨国能源公司Phillips 66组建了一个财团，旨在扩大生产规模并释放1100万加仑的SAF。

Riley says that American farming is well positioned to participate in the SAF industry: “Think about biofuels: soy, corn, ethanol, and all of those crop-based feedstocks that you then collect, whether it’s the waste or the crop itself, and convert into jet fuel.” 莱利表示，美国农业在参与SAF行业方面处于有利地位：“想想生物燃料：大豆、玉米、乙醇，以及所有那些你可以收集的作物基原料，无论是废弃物还是作物本身，都可以转化为航空燃油。”

Domestic production and domestic travel are seeing a boost, at least in the short term. Ultimately, the Miller family put Rome on hold, especially since the trip would depend upon multiple carriers, and planned an alternate vacation. “It was just a risk we could not absorb, so we’ve decided to holiday in North America instead,” he says. After ruling out the Caribbean due to its hurricane season, the family decided to stay much closer to home. The Okanagan Valley—a lakeside summer haven for golfers, wine aficionados, and boaters in British Columbia—is five hours from Vancouver by car and one hour by flight. 至少在短期内，国内生产和国内旅游正在得到提振。最终，米勒一家搁置了罗马之行，因为这次旅行需要依赖多家航空公司，他们转而计划了另一个假期。“这是一个我们无法承担的风险，所以我们决定改在北美度假，”他说。在排除了飓风季节的加勒比地区后，他们决定留在离家更近的地方。奥肯那根谷（Okanagan Valley）是位于不列颠哥伦比亚省的一个湖畔夏季避暑胜地，深受高尔夫球手、葡萄酒爱好者和划船者的喜爱，距离温哥华车程五小时，飞行时间仅需一小时。

“We are feeling good about our decision,” Miller says. “我们对这个决定感到满意，”米勒说。