Polymarket and Kalshi Say Influencer Partners Can’t Deny Election Results, Actually
Polymarket and Kalshi Say Influencer Partners Can’t Deny Election Results, Actually
Polymarket 和 Kalshi 表示：网红合作伙伴不得否认选举结果
As the United States heads into an especially contentious midterm election season, prediction markets have already run into trouble with the political commentators they pay to promote their platforms. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have asked influencers to take down “paid partnership” tags on social media posts questioning the results of the Los Angeles mayoral election, the platforms confirmed to WIRED.
随着美国进入一个竞争尤为激烈的中期选举季，预测市场平台已经因其付费推广的政治评论员而陷入麻烦。Kalshi 和 Polymarket 向《连线》（WIRED）证实，他们已要求相关网红撤下社交媒体帖子上关于质疑洛杉矶市长选举结果的“付费合作”标签。
As conservative former reality television star Spencer Pratt fell to third place behind incumbent Karen Bass and city counselor Nithya Raman, several popular right-wing creators published posts casting doubt on the race. In one post, a MAGA influencer known as Gunther Eagleman, who has over 1.7 million followers, suggested that Pratt’s opponents were “stealing” the election. Kalshi asked the creators to remove the posts last Friday, as Semafor first reported.
当保守派前真人秀明星斯宾塞·普拉特（Spencer Pratt）落后于现任市长凯伦·巴斯（Karen Bass）和市议员尼蒂亚·拉曼（Nithya Raman）跌至第三名时，几位颇具影响力的右翼创作者发布了质疑选举结果的帖子。其中，一位拥有超过 170 万粉丝、被称为“Gunther Eagleman”的 MAGA（让美国再次伟大）网红发帖暗示，普拉特的竞争对手正在“窃取”选举。据 Semafor 最先报道，Kalshi 已于上周五要求这些创作者删除相关帖子。
The company does not publicly disclose its contracts with paid partners, but Kalshi’s rules specifically ban affiliates from questioning the integrity or accuracy of official election results and legal rulings made in connection with elections. “These are internal policies to guide our affiliates and partners, and they include standards around the promotion of and marketing of Kalshi markets on elections,” spokesperson Dani Lever told WIRED.
该公司并未公开其与付费合作伙伴的合同，但 Kalshi 的规则明确禁止其关联方质疑官方选举结果及相关法律裁决的完整性或准确性。发言人丹妮·利弗（Dani Lever）告诉《连线》：“这些是指导我们关联方和合作伙伴的内部政策，其中包括关于推广和营销 Kalshi 选举市场的标准。”
Polymarket, meanwhile, has asked two creators to remove paid-partnership tags from posts critical of the election results, including a post from right-wing influencer Benny Johnson suggesting the reason Raman’s odds had improved in Polymarket was because “the public has so little faith in California’s elections that they just assume Democrats are going to dramatically rig it.” Johnson’s post was tagged as paid content from June 4 until June 8, when the partnership tag was removed.
与此同时，Polymarket 也要求两名创作者从批评选举结果的帖子中移除“付费合作”标签。其中包括右翼网红本尼·约翰逊（Benny Johnson）的一篇帖子，他暗示拉曼在 Polymarket 上的胜率之所以提高，是因为“公众对加州的选举缺乏信心，以至于他们直接认定民主党人会大规模操纵选举”。约翰逊的帖子从 6 月 4 日起被标记为付费内容，直到 6 月 8 日合作标签被移除。
Johnson did not respond to requests for comment. He has not posted any new Polymarket affiliate content since the takedown.
约翰逊未回应置评请求。自帖子被撤下后，他没有再发布任何新的 Polymarket 关联内容。
“Our existing marketing guidelines explicitly prohibit affiliates from providing misleading or false information, and we will continue to monitor and ensure compliance with our paid contributors,” Olivia Chalos, Polymarket’s deputy chief legal officer, told WIRED in a statement.
Polymarket 副首席法务官奥利维亚·查洛斯（Olivia Chalos）在一份声明中告诉《连线》：“我们现有的营销准则明确禁止关联方提供误导性或虚假信息，我们将继续监督并确保付费贡献者遵守规定。”
Polymarket declined to share the language it uses in contracts with affiliates, although the company confirmed that its guidelines prohibit false and misleading statements. As the newsletter Popular Information first reported earlier today, other posts labeled as paid partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi that promote election-denial narratives remain online, demonstrating how enforcing their guidelines has become a game of whack-a-mole for prediction-market firms. (Polymarket is pursuing additional accounts that have violated its policies, it tells WIRED.)
Polymarket 拒绝分享其与关联方合同中的具体条款，尽管该公司确认其准则禁止虚假和误导性陈述。正如时事通讯《Popular Information》今天早些时候最先报道的那样，其他标记为与 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 付费合作、且宣扬“选举舞弊”叙事的帖子仍然在线，这表明对于预测市场公司而言，执行其准则已变成了一场“打地鼠”游戏。（Polymarket 告诉《连线》，他们正在追查其他违反其政策的账户。）
Last week, Politico reported that Polymarket chief marketing officer Matthew Modabber pays content creators directly using PayPal, an unorthodox arrangement. It is unclear whether Modabber paid Johnson or right-wing commentator Kangmin Lee, whose post was also removed, for these specific partnerships. Polymarket declined to comment on the form of payment.
上周，《政客》（Politico）报道称，Polymarket 首席营销官马修·莫达伯（Matthew Modabber）直接使用 PayPal 向内容创作者付款，这是一种非传统的安排。目前尚不清楚莫达伯是否为这些特定的合作向约翰逊或右翼评论员康敏·李（Kangmin Lee，其帖子也被删除）支付了费用。Polymarket 拒绝就付款方式发表评论。
Kalshi and Polymarket offer a wide range of politics- and elections-themed markets, and prediction-market odds are increasingly incorporated into media coverage of elections. (CNN, for example, entered into a formal partnership with Kalshi late last year.) But both platforms are under intense scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators. Many state officials believe that these startups should be regulated like gambling platforms rather than commodities exchanges, and dozens of ongoing lawsuits are attempting to force them to abide by state gambling laws. There’s also bipartisan concern over how these markets can incentivize and facilitate insider trading and market manipulation.
Kalshi 和 Polymarket 提供广泛的政治和选举主题市场，预测市场的赔率正越来越多地被纳入选举的媒体报道中。（例如，CNN 在去年年底与 Kalshi 建立了正式合作伙伴关系。）但这两个平台都受到立法者和监管机构的严密审查。许多州官员认为，这些初创公司应该像赌博平台而非商品交易所那样受到监管，目前有数十起诉讼试图迫使它们遵守州赌博法。此外，两党对于这些市场如何激励和助长内幕交易及市场操纵也表示担忧。
This latest incident raises yet another alarm: These companies have entangled themselves with influencers embracing election denialism. The odds that this is a one-off, and this army of firebrand commentators will otherwise exercise sterling judgment over what counts as appropriate paid promotional materials, look poor.
这一最新事件再次敲响了警钟：这些公司已与信奉“选举舞弊论”的网红纠缠在一起。认为这只是孤立事件，且这群激进的评论员在判断什么是合适的付费宣传材料时会表现出极高判断力的可能性，看起来微乎其微。