Is It a Super El Niño Year? It Could Turn the World’s Weather Upside Down

今年是“超级厄尔尼诺”年吗？它可能会颠覆全球气候

The wait is finally over: El Niño has officially begun. On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared that the semiannual climate phenomenon has arrived. Congratulations if you took the pre-July 1 prediction on Kalshi. 等待终于结束了：厄尔尼诺现象已正式开始。周四，美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）宣布，这一半年度气候现象已经到来。如果你在 Kalshi 上押注了 7 月 1 日前到来，那么恭喜你。

Prediction markets aren’t the only places with a lot riding on El Niño. The phenomenon—characterized by hotter-than-normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—has a huge impact on weather in nearly every corner of the globe. And with this year’s iteration projected to be among the strongest ever recorded, the impacts are likely to be particularly acute. 预测市场并不是唯一受厄尔尼诺现象影响的地方。这种以东太平洋热带地区海水异常升温为特征的现象，对全球几乎每个角落的天气都有巨大影响。由于预计今年的厄尔尼诺现象将是有记录以来最强的一次，其影响可能会尤为剧烈。

There are a handful of ways to measure El Niño, but NOAA’s threshold hinges on temperatures being 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.5 C) above average for a three-month period in a specific part of the Pacific. (That area is dubbed NINO3.4 if you want to impress and/or bore someone at a party.) The Pacific surpassed that threshold thanks to a rapid upswing in temperatures in record weeks. But there are other signs of El Niño, including a surge in sea levels of up to 7 inches (18 centimeters) in the eastern tropical Pacific, thanks to winds blowing from the west that cause water to pile up there. 衡量厄尔尼诺现象的方法有很多，但 NOAA 的标准取决于太平洋特定区域在三个月内的平均气温是否比常年高出 1 华氏度（0.5 摄氏度）。（如果你想在聚会上给别人留下深刻印象或让对方感到无聊，这个区域被称为 NINO3.4。）得益于近期气温的迅速飙升，太平洋气温已超过了这一阈值。但厄尔尼诺现象还有其他迹象，包括东太平洋热带地区海平面上升了多达 7 英寸（18 厘米），这是由于西风吹拂导致海水在那里堆积所致。

The shift in ocean temperatures in turn influences the atmosphere regionally, which then has knock-on effects on weather around the globe, from increasing the odds of wet weather in the southwestern US to lowering the odds of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Drought also becomes more likely in places like Indonesia and the Sahel region of Africa. El Niño also releases extra heat into the atmosphere, warming the already-heating planet even further. In essence, El Niño is like the engine of a car: Fire it up and the atmosphere gets moving. 海洋温度的变化反过来会影响区域大气，进而对全球天气产生连锁反应，从增加美国西南部潮湿天气的概率，到降低大西洋飓风活跃季的可能性。印度尼西亚和非洲萨赫勒地区发生干旱的可能性也随之增加。厄尔尼诺现象还会向大气中释放额外的热量，使本已变暖的地球进一步升温。本质上，厄尔尼诺就像汽车的引擎：一旦启动，大气就开始“运转”起来。

The key questions now are how strong this year’s edition of El Niño will be and how that will affect its impacts. The answers appear to be “very” and “quite a bit.” NOAA gives this year’s El Niño a 63 percent chance of exceeding the 3.6-degree F threshold, which would qualify it as a super El Niño. But climate models are bullish that it could surpass that threshold by a wide margin. Some have it surpassing 5.4 F, which would make this the strongest El Niño on record. 现在的关键问题是，今年的厄尔尼诺现象会有多强，以及它将如何影响其后果。答案似乎是“非常强”和“影响巨大”。NOAA 认为今年厄尔尼诺现象超过 3.6 华氏度阈值的概率为 63%，这将使其被定义为“超级厄尔尼诺”。但气候模型普遍看好它将大幅超过这一阈值。一些模型预测它将超过 5.4 华氏度，这将使其成为有记录以来最强的厄尔尼诺现象。

There have been four other El Niños that have reached the super threshold, and all led to widespread problems around the globe. To revisit the car analogy, if your average El Niño is like the engine in a Toyota Prius, a super El Niño is more akin to the one in a Ferrari Luce. 此前还有四次厄尔尼诺现象达到了“超级”阈值，它们都导致了全球范围内的广泛问题。回到汽车的比喻，如果普通的厄尔尼诺现象就像丰田普锐斯的引擎，那么超级厄尔尼诺就更像是法拉利 Luce 的引擎。

The 1982-83 event—the first one in recorded history—caused Lake Mead to overflow, while the 1997-98 version caused what was Indonesia’s worst drought on record. The most recent iteration in 2023-24 caused Southern Africa’s worst drought in 100 years, leading to 61 million people requiring food assistance. All the heat in the ocean also fries coral reefs, which are already struggling to adapt to the rising temperatures caused by burning fossil fuels. 1982-83 年的事件（有记录以来的第一次）导致米德湖溢出，而 1997-98 年的版本则导致了印度尼西亚有记录以来最严重的干旱。最近一次 2023-24 年的厄尔尼诺现象导致了南部非洲 100 年来最严重的干旱，造成 6100 万人需要粮食援助。海洋中的所有热量还会灼伤珊瑚礁，而珊瑚礁本已在努力适应化石燃料燃烧引起的温度上升。

And really, that’s the other issue at play with what will happen with this year’s El Niño. The world has never been hotter in human history. Pile an El Niño on and it’s likely there will be a burst of warming in the pipeline for this year and next. If I was a betting person, I would definitely take the over on 2026 being among the hottest years on record. 事实上，这就是今年厄尔尼诺现象带来的另一个问题。人类历史上，世界从未像现在这样炎热。再加上厄尔尼诺现象，今年和明年很可能会出现一波升温。如果我是个赌徒，我绝对会押注 2026 年将成为有记录以来最热的年份之一。