Why China is betting on big nuclear reactors
Why China is betting on big nuclear reactors
为什么中国押注大型核反应堆
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY It’s a tale of two nuclear industries. In China, large reactors are coming together at a stunning pace. The country has nearly doubled its nuclear fleet since 2016, reaching nearly 60 gigawatts of total power capacity. The new facilities are nearly all gigawatt-scale pressurized-water reactors. Meanwhile, the US has built just two reactors in that time—Unit 3 and Unit 4 at Plant Vogtle in Georgia.
执行摘要 这是两个核工业截然不同的故事。在中国，大型反应堆正以惊人的速度建成。自2016年以来，中国的核电装机容量几乎翻了一番，达到近60吉瓦。这些新设施几乎全部是吉瓦级的压水堆。与此同时，美国在此期间仅建造了两座反应堆——位于佐治亚州的沃格特勒（Vogtle）核电站3号和4号机组。
Smaller reactors are attracting a lot of excitement and investment, though. A microreactor developer just saw its reactor reach criticality in a new Department of Energy pilot program. The world is racing to meet rising electricity demand, and many countries are interested in energy sources, like nuclear power, that don’t come with greenhouse-gas emissions. The key question: Which of these strategies will really pay off in terms of getting electrons on the grid quickly?
不过，小型反应堆正吸引着大量的关注和投资。一家微型反应堆开发商的反应堆刚刚在美国能源部的一项新试点计划中实现临界。全球都在竞相满足日益增长的电力需求，许多国家对核能等不产生温室气体排放的能源来源很感兴趣。关键问题在于：哪种策略能真正有效地实现电力快速并网？
Today, the US and France are known as leaders in the nuclear industry. The US has the world’s largest fleet, with France coming in second. France is heavily dependent on nuclear for its grid—about two-thirds of the country’s power comes from nuclear reactors. But they have hardly added any new reactors to their fleets in recent years. The US can point only to Vogtle, and France connected its latest reactor to the grid in December 2024—the first in over 20 years.
如今，美国和法国被公认为核工业的领导者。美国拥有世界上最大的核电规模，法国位居第二。法国的电网高度依赖核能——该国约三分之二的电力来自核反应堆。但近年来，它们几乎没有增加任何新反应堆。美国只能拿出沃格特勒核电站作为代表，而法国在2024年12月才将其最新反应堆并网——这是该国20多年来的首个新反应堆。
It’s incredibly difficult to build the massive projects that dominate the nuclear industry today. Up-front investment can run well into the billions, so investors need to wait decades to break even. Designs are complex and can often change during the regulatory process, tacking on cost and time. Many are hoping that the key to turning things around in these countries could be smaller reactors. The idea is that shrinking the footprint of a reactor cuts down the initial investment needed to prove out the new technology. The reactors could even be put together in a factory rather than being built on-site, allowing for a lower price over time.
建造目前主导核工业的大型项目极其困难。前期投资可能高达数十亿美元，因此投资者需要等待数十年才能回本。设计复杂，且往往会在监管过程中发生变更，从而增加成本和时间。许多人希望，扭转这些国家局面的关键可能是小型反应堆。其理念是，缩小反应堆的占地面积可以减少验证新技术所需的前期投资。反应堆甚至可以在工厂组装，而不是在现场建造，从而随着时间的推移降低价格。
These smaller reactors are the target of tons of interest and investment in the US, including a new Department of Energy pilot program. The department set a goal last year of having three test reactors reach criticality by July 4, 2026, the nation’s 250th anniversary. (Criticality is the point at which a reactor achieves a self-sustaining chain reaction that can release energy.) Last week, California-based Antares hit the milestone with its Mark-0 reactor. The company plans to eventually build microreactors, designed to produce between 100 kilowatts and 1 megawatt of electricity (large reactors on the grid today are at least 1,000 times that size).
这些小型反应堆在美国受到了极大的关注和投资，包括美国能源部的一项新试点计划。能源部去年设定了一个目标，即到2026年7月4日（美国建国250周年纪念日）前，让三座测试反应堆实现临界。（临界是指反应堆实现可释放能量的自持链式反应的状态。）上周，总部位于加州的Antares公司凭借其Mark-0反应堆实现了这一里程碑。该公司计划最终建造微型反应堆，设计发电量在100千瓦到1兆瓦之间（目前电网上的大型反应堆规模至少是其1000倍）。
The core design is a sodium-cooled reactor, and it uses TRISO fuel, self-contained graphite-coated spheres of a more concentrated fuel than what most reactors use today. But there is still a long way to go before it can actually produce power—the Mark-0 doesn’t have any power conversion or heat removal systems. The company plans to produce electricity in late 2027 and deploy in the field by 2028, CEO Jordan Bramble told the Associated Press.
其核心设计是钠冷反应堆，并使用TRISO燃料，这是一种自包含的石墨涂层球体，其燃料浓度比大多数现代反应堆使用的燃料更高。但要真正实现发电还有很长的路要走——Mark-0目前没有任何电力转换或除热系统。首席执行官乔丹·布兰布尔（Jordan Bramble）告诉美联社，该公司计划在2027年底发电，并于2028年投入实地部署。
The private sector is interested—and invested—too. Big Tech companies are throwing money at new reactors they hope can help power data centers. But look to the other side of the globe, and others are sticking with the established blueprint: China is absolutely churning out large nuclear reactors. Construction started on six new reactors there in 2025, and two more got underway in the first five months of 2026. The country is on course to overtake both the US and the European Union in installed nuclear capacity by 2030.
私营部门也对此深感兴趣并进行了投资。大型科技公司正投入资金研发新反应堆，希望以此为数据中心供电。但放眼全球另一端，其他国家正坚持既定的蓝图：中国正在全力以赴地建造大型核反应堆。2025年，中国有六座新反应堆开工建设，2026年前五个月又有两座开工。中国有望在2030年前在核电装机容量上超过美国和欧盟。
The speed here is staggering. As of 2024, the average time to build a new reactor in China came in at between five and seven years. The global average is about nine years, and the two most recent reactors in the US took about 15 years. One key to this speed is standardization: China has set up a uniform project management system to design, license, and build new reactors. They’re built in batches of six or more to take advantage of economies of scale. It’s one of the ideas meant to give the edge to smaller reactors, but China is working to realize the same benefits for larger projects.
这种速度令人震惊。截至2024年，中国建造一座新反应堆的平均时间为5到7年。全球平均水平约为9年，而美国最近的两座反应堆耗时约15年。这种速度的关键之一是标准化：中国建立了一套统一的项目管理系统来设计、许可和建造新反应堆。它们以六座或更多为一批进行建造，以利用规模经济。这本是赋予小型反应堆优势的理念之一，但中国正致力于在大型项目中实现同样的效益。
A huge amount of government investment is certainly helping. Larger reactors generally provide more electricity to the grid for a lower price, a key consideration in view of China’s steeply increasing electricity demand. While smaller reactors require less up-front investment than larger ones because of their size, they’ll actually be more expensive per unit of electricity produced. That’s not to say China is exclusively focused on big reactors: the country is also expected to see its first operational small modular reactor, the Linglong-1, start sending power to the grid this year.
大量的政府投资无疑起到了推动作用。考虑到中国急剧增长的电力需求，大型反应堆通常能以更低的价格向电网提供更多电力，这是一个关键考量因素。虽然小型反应堆因其规模较小，前期投资低于大型反应堆，但其单位发电成本实际上更高。这并不是说中国只关注大型反应堆：预计中国首个可运行的小型模块化反应堆“玲龙一号”今年也将开始并网发电。
But looking ahead, it’ll be interesting to see if smaller reactors can help the West keep building new nuclear power. At the moment, with China’s quick progress, it’s looking as if bigger might just be better.
展望未来，小型反应堆能否帮助西方国家持续建设新的核电项目，将是一个值得关注的问题。目前，随着中国取得的快速进展，看起来“越大越好”或许正是答案。