SpaceX is now a public company valued for its AI potential, so what comes next?
SpaceX is now a public company valued for its AI potential, so what comes next?
SpaceX 现已成为一家因 AI 潜力而备受估值的上市公司，接下来会发生什么？
Space Exploration Technologies, better known simply as SpaceX, became a publicly traded company on Friday nearly a quarter of a century after it was founded. The company began trading on the NASDAQ exchange in New York City at $135 a share, valuing SpaceX at nearly $1.8 trillion. By the end of the trading day the company’s shares were selling at $160.95, a respectable increase of more than 19 percent.
太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）在成立近四分之一个世纪后，于周五正式成为一家上市公司。该公司在纽约纳斯达克交易所挂牌交易，开盘价为每股 135 美元，估值近 1.8 万亿美元。截至收盘，公司股价报收于 160.95 美元，涨幅超过 19%，表现相当可观。
On paper, SpaceX founder Elon Musk became the world’s first trillionaire, with his personal stake in the company valued at more than $700 billion. Because of the company’s stock options plan, thousands of current and former employees became overnight millionaires. Employees at SpaceX have worked remarkably hard over the last 24 years, and now they will be richly compensated for having done so.
从账面上看，SpaceX 创始人埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）成为了世界上首位万亿富翁，其个人持股价值超过 7000 亿美元。得益于公司的股票期权计划，数千名现任和前任员工一夜之间成为了百万富翁。SpaceX 的员工在过去 24 年里工作极其努力，如今他们终于获得了丰厚的回报。
SpaceX now stands as one of a handful of the most valuable companies in the world. Should it be? There is broad disagreement about whether SpaceX is fool’s gold with its sky-high valuation, or represents a valuable opportunity to finally own a piece of a dominant space company that could some day command the business of data centers in orbit.
SpaceX 现已跻身全球最具价值的少数几家公司之列。它配得上这个估值吗？目前各界对此存在巨大分歧：有人认为 SpaceX 的高估值不过是“虚火”，也有人认为这是一个难得的机会，可以持有一家主导型航天公司的股份，而该公司未来或许能掌控轨道数据中心业务。
SpaceX is now largely an AI company
SpaceX 现已在很大程度上是一家 AI 公司
One thing is clear: SpaceX is now subject to significant public disclosures, and it will conduct much more of its business in the public eye. Although Musk retains complete autonomy in terms of ownership and voting rights, he will now be beholden to shareholders in a very important way: the price of his company’s stock.
有一点很明确：SpaceX 现在必须遵守严格的信息披露要求，其大部分业务将置于公众视野之下。尽管马斯克在所有权和投票权方面仍保持完全自主，但他现在必须在一个至关重要的方面对股东负责，那就是公司股价。
Most shareholders bought SpaceX stock today not to be part of the company’s long-term plans to settle Mars or to help NASA land humans on the Moon. Certainly, some space enthusiasts did. However, most people invest in stocks to make money. As SpaceX made clear in its S-1 document filed in May, however, the company’s value does not lie in its “space-enabled solutions” or its Starlink Internet constellation. As part of its “total addressable market,” the company views these as comprising less than 7 percent of its value. Rather, Musk and SpaceX see the majority of its value in providing AI services, mostly from space, and primarily for enterprise applications.
今天购买 SpaceX 股票的大多数股东，并非为了参与其移民火星的长期计划，也不是为了帮助 NASA 实现载人登月。当然，确实有一些太空爱好者是出于这些目的，但大多数人投资股票是为了赚钱。正如 SpaceX 在 5 月提交的 S-1 文件中所明确的那样，公司的价值并不在于其“太空赋能解决方案”或“星链”（Starlink）互联网卫星群。在公司的“总潜在市场”中，这些业务所占的价值比例不到 7%。相反，马斯克和 SpaceX 将公司的大部分价值寄托于提供 AI 服务——主要通过太空部署，并主要面向企业级应用。
If investors agree that’s where the vast majority of the company’s profit lies, it is where they will want to see SpaceX put its time and resources. So as of today, SpaceX is owned by investors who largely want to see it make money; to reach its enormous valuation, it must make that money through orbital data centers.
如果投资者认同这是公司绝大部分利润的来源，他们就会希望 SpaceX 将时间和资源投入到这些领域。因此，从今天起，SpaceX 的所有者是那些主要希望公司盈利的投资者；为了支撑其庞大的估值，公司必须通过轨道数据中心来实现盈利。
This is a sobering thought for NASA, which was the company’s most important backer during its early years when bankruptcy was never too far away. Even a decade ago, a majority of the value of SpaceX’s contracts were coming from NASA and other US government entities. Since then, however, revenues from Starlink have begun to significantly outstrip NASA’s contracts, and this will likely become even more true in the future.
这对 NASA 来说是一个发人深省的消息。在 SpaceX 成立初期、濒临破产的岁月里，NASA 是其最重要的支持者。即使在十年前，SpaceX 大部分合同价值仍来自 NASA 和其他美国政府机构。然而，自那以后，星链的收入已开始显著超过 NASA 的合同金额，未来这种趋势可能会更加明显。
How much of a priority is Artemis?
“阿尔忒弥斯”计划的优先级有多高？
NASA relies on SpaceX for so much right now: flying its astronauts and most important science payloads into space and playing an important part in the Artemis campaign. But the $2.9 billion contract NASA signed with SpaceX in 2021 to build a Human Landing System for the Moon program is now regularly dwarfed by the AI compute contracts SpaceX is signing with companies like Anthropic and Google, which are worth tens of billions of dollars. For SpaceX, the money (at least in the near term) is in AI—it is not in NASA government contracts.
目前，NASA 在许多方面都依赖 SpaceX：运送宇航员和最重要的科学载荷进入太空，并在“阿尔忒弥斯”（Artemis）登月计划中发挥关键作用。然而，NASA 在 2021 年与 SpaceX 签署的 29 亿美元月球载人着陆系统合同，如今在 SpaceX 与 Anthropic 和 Google 等公司签署的价值数百亿美元的 AI 计算合同面前，已显得相形见绌。对于 SpaceX 而言，（至少在短期内）钱在 AI 领域，而不在 NASA 的政府合同中。
Yet NASA is desperate for SpaceX to begin delivering on critical milestones for the Artemis program in the coming months and develop the capacity to land humans on the Moon. Key to all of the work for NASA is the massive Starship rocket and how SpaceX will prioritize its further development. The large rocket appears to be close to reaching operational status, with the ability to put about 100 metric tons into low-Earth orbit.
尽管如此，NASA 仍迫切希望 SpaceX 能在未来几个月内实现“阿尔忒弥斯”计划的关键里程碑，并具备载人登月的能力。对于 NASA 的所有工作而言，关键在于巨大的“星舰”（Starship）火箭，以及 SpaceX 将如何优先考虑其后续开发。这款大型火箭似乎已接近投入运营状态，具备将约 100 公吨载荷送入近地轨道的能力。
Assuming that happens in the coming months, how will SpaceX use its Starship launches? Will it spend its energies on preparing and launching a critical refueling demonstration in orbit, which will require back-to-back Starship launches? Will it fill up a lander prototype next year, which will mean a dozen or more tanker flights simply to enable an uncrewed lunar landing test for NASA? Or will the company focus on putting profit-making Starlink satellites into orbit, followed by critical tests of data center satellites? In short, will it follow the money? It’s a valid question, because investors will be watching closely.
假设这一切在未来几个月内实现，SpaceX 将如何利用其“星舰”的发射能力？它是会投入精力准备并执行轨道关键加油演示（这需要连续多次发射“星舰”），还是会在明年为着陆器原型机加注燃料（这意味着需要十几次甚至更多的加油船飞行，仅仅是为了完成 NASA 的一次无人登月测试）？又或者，公司会专注于将盈利的星链卫星送入轨道，并进行数据中心卫星的关键测试？简而言之，它会选择“向钱看”吗？这是一个值得深思的问题，因为投资者们正密切关注着。