The Strait of Hormuz Has Been Closed for 100 Days. Why Aren’t Oil Prices Higher?
The Strait of Hormuz Has Been Closed for 100 Days. Why Aren’t Oil Prices Higher?
霍尔木兹海峡已关闭100天，为何油价没有飙升？
Last week, President Donald Trump claimed a secret US mission had moved 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz while it was blockaded. The claim landed in an industry already consumed by the question of how much oil is actually getting out—and nobody, it turns out, can answer that with confidence. 上周，唐纳德·特朗普总统声称，美国执行了一项秘密任务，在霍尔木兹海峡被封锁期间，成功运送了1亿桶石油。这一说法在石油行业引发了震动，因为该行业目前正深陷于“到底有多少石油能够运出”的疑问中——事实证明，没有人能给出确切的答案。
“No one’s experienced this kind of disruption,” said Matt Stanley, head of market engagement at Kpler, the commodity intelligence and ship-tracking firm. The reason the numbers are so hard to pin down is what the industry calls the dark trade—vessels running without their AIS transponders on, moving at night, closer to the Omani border, sometimes with naval escort. 大宗商品情报与船舶追踪公司 Kpler 的市场参与主管马特·斯坦利（Matt Stanley）表示：“没有人经历过这种程度的中断。”之所以难以确定具体数字，是因为行业内所谓的“暗黑贸易”——船只在关闭自动识别系统（AIS）的情况下航行，选择在夜间靠近阿曼边境移动，有时甚至有海军护航。
There are ways to detect portions of outgoing oil anyway. Different grades of crude can only originate from specific fields. The UAE’s Murban crude can be exported via Fujairah, outside the strait. Another type of crude, Upper Zakum, cannot. One oil market analyst noted that their team has seen Upper Zakum crude oil appear in other markets. Those sightings are happening, yet the scale remains unknown. 不过，仍有一些方法可以探测到部分外运的石油。不同等级的原油只能产自特定的油田。阿联酋的穆尔班（Murban）原油可以通过海峡外的富查伊拉（Fujairah）出口，但另一种原油——扎库姆上层（Upper Zakum）原油则无法通过该途径。一位石油市场分析师指出，他们的团队已在其他市场发现了扎库姆上层原油的踪迹。虽然这些现象确实存在，但其规模仍然未知。
Stanley says it’s possible that 100 million barrels made it through the Strait of Hormuz since the first of May. “When you put into context, pre-conflict, it was about 20 million barrels a day that was going through, so five days worth of oil, in a normal traffic environment, and it’s taken over a month. 100 million barrels, it’s a good number, but it’s a relative drop in the ocean, literally, compared to previous traffic.” 斯坦利认为，自5月1日以来，可能有1亿桶石油通过了霍尔木兹海峡。“如果放在背景中看，冲突前每天约有2000万桶石油通过，也就是说，这相当于正常交通环境下5天的石油量，而现在却花了一个多月的时间。1亿桶是一个不小的数字，但与之前的运输量相比，这简直是沧海一粟。”
Why Prices Haven’t Exploded Yet
为什么油价尚未飙升？
The world’s most important oil chokepoint has been effectively shut for more than 100 days. World Trade Organization data shows a 95 percent reduction in crude oil shipments from Arabian Gulf ports and a 99 percent reduction in liquified natural gas carriers. The International Energy Agency has called it “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” Yet Brent crude sits at $87.55 per barrel—the lowest since before the conflict began. 世界上最重要的石油咽喉要道实际上已经关闭了100多天。世界贸易组织的数据显示，从阿拉伯湾港口运出的原油减少了95%，液化天然气运输船减少了99%。国际能源署称这是“全球石油市场历史上最大的供应中断”。然而，布伦特原油价格目前为每桶87.55美元，处于冲突开始以来的最低水平。
This is because of buffers. China has approximately 1.3 billion barrels in storage, drawing it down at around a million barrels a day, Stanley says. “We see their demand, about 7 million barrels a day from May, June, and July. They were buying 12.5 million barrels a day in December.” The US, Brazil, and Canada have also stepped in to fill part of the void. 这归功于缓冲储备。斯坦利表示，中国拥有约13亿桶的石油储备，目前正以每天约100万桶的速度消耗。“我们观察到他们在5月、6月和7月的需求约为每天700万桶，而去年12月他们每天购买1250万桶。”此外，美国、巴西和加拿大也已介入，填补了部分供应缺口。
The three analysts interviewed agree that the oil market’s response has been robust. “The oil market responded to this outage significantly well in terms of cutting parts of demand,” says Iman Nasseri, managing director, Middle East of FGE NexantECA, an energy and chemical advisory company. “There is also a significant amount of stock that has come to market, but we doubt that they will continue to do that. We expect that by July [if the strait remains closed], things will change.” 受访的三位分析师一致认为，石油市场的反应非常稳健。能源与化学咨询公司 FGE NexantECA 的中东董事总经理伊曼·纳塞里（Iman Nasseri）表示：“石油市场在削减部分需求方面对此次中断的反应非常出色。此外，有大量库存进入市场，但我们怀疑这种供应能否持续。我们预计，如果海峡继续关闭，到7月份情况将会发生变化。”
The buffers will run out. One analyst said stocks are approaching what the industry calls operationally critical levels—where oil in storage and additional supply needs to be replenished. They added that the US, currently acting as a swing producer, faces its own deadline as the end of the year approaches, and the US will have to prioritize its own domestic production to accommodate people needing to heat their homes. 缓冲储备终将耗尽。一位分析师表示，库存正接近行业所谓的“运营临界水平”，即需要补充库存和额外供应的阶段。他们补充说，目前作为调节生产国的美国，随着年底临近也面临着自己的最后期限，美国将不得不优先考虑国内生产，以满足民众的取暖需求。
“People looking at October, you really think that it would be sorted out by the middle of August,” Stanley says. “That’s what I think the market is hoping for.” “人们展望10月时，真的认为问题会在8月中旬得到解决，”斯坦利说，“我认为这正是市场所期待的。”
Back Online
恢复供应
Global oil supply fell 10.1 million barrels per day in March, with OPEC+ production dropping by 9.4 million barrels per day month-on-month. The harder question is how much comes back, and when. 3月份全球石油供应量每天减少了1010万桶，其中欧佩克+（OPEC+）的产量环比每天减少了940万桶。更棘手的问题是，有多少供应能恢复，以及何时恢复。
Analysis by S&P Global CERA estimates restart timelines of 10 weeks to seven months for fields shut down for two months. IEA executive director Fatih Birol has said more than 80 energy facilities have been damaged, and recovery “could take as long as two years.” The UAE’s national oil company estimates full Hormuz flows won’t resume until 2027. 标普全球 CERA 的分析估计，对于关闭了两个月的油田，重启时间需要10周到7个月不等。国际能源署执行署长法提赫·比罗尔（Fatih Birol）表示，已有超过80处能源设施受损，恢复工作“可能需要长达两年时间”。阿联酋国家石油公司估计，霍尔木兹海峡的全面运输要到2027年才能恢复。
Stanley adds that basic infrastructure, including everything from husbandry services, vessels, even inspection may have closed down due to a lack of business. He estimates it could take three months just to get operations back up and running. 斯坦利补充说，由于业务停滞，包括船舶维护服务、船只甚至检查在内的基础设施可能已经关闭。他估计，仅让运营恢复正常就需要三个月的时间。
Counterintuitively, a fast, clean resolution carries its own risk. “If oil isn’t at $200 because supply has been sourced from elsewhere, and then the strait reopens and all this oil is now available— prices are in danger of getting to $50,” Stanley says. 反直觉的是，快速、彻底的解决方案本身也带有风险。斯坦利说：“如果因为从其他地方获得了供应，油价没有涨到200美元，而随后海峡重新开放，所有这些石油现在又可以供应了——油价就有跌至50美元的风险。”
Countries like Iraq, starved of revenue for months, could export aggressively the moment they can. “OPEC might have to manage what Iraq does, or the Saudis might have to manage. I think there may be another body formed—something like an actual Middle East OPEC—because supply management, second half of the year, is what everyone will talk about.” 像伊拉克这样几个月来缺乏收入的国家，一旦有机会，可能会大举出口。“欧佩克可能不得不管理伊拉克的行为，或者沙特可能不得不进行干预。我认为可能会成立另一个机构——类似于一个真正的‘中东欧佩克’——因为下半年的供应管理将是每个人都会谈论的话题。”
This story originally appeared on WIRED Middle East. 本文最初发表于《连线》中东版。