1 in 4 World Cup Matches Could Be Played in Dangerous Temperatures
1 in 4 World Cup Matches Could Be Played in Dangerous Temperatures
四分之一的世界杯比赛可能在危险的高温下进行
Extreme heat will be one of the biggest challenges for players and fans during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. According to an analysis by the World Weather Attribution (WWA), around 25 percent of the 104 matches of the tournament could be played under temperatures that exceed the recommended thermal safety limits. The study points out that the probability of facing these conditions is almost double that recorded in the 1994 tournament held in the United States.
极端高温将成为 2026 年国际足联世界杯期间球员和球迷面临的最大挑战之一。根据“世界天气归因”（WWA）的一项分析，本届世界杯 104 场比赛中，约有 25% 的比赛可能在超过建议热安全限值的温度下进行。研究指出，出现这种情况的概率几乎是 1994 年美国世界杯时的两倍。
The projections were developed using a statistical model designed to calculate the probability of each match being played in extremely hot conditions. To assess the risk of physiological heat stress at host venues, the scientists used the wet-bulb globe temperature, known as WBGT. This indicator provides a more accurate measure of the thermal sensation experienced by the human body, because it incorporates not only ambient temperature, but variables such as humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed as well.
这些预测是利用一种统计模型得出的，该模型旨在计算每场比赛在极端高温条件下进行的概率。为了评估举办地生理热应激的风险，科学家们使用了湿球黑球温度（WBGT）。该指标能更准确地衡量人体感受到的热感，因为它不仅考虑了环境温度，还纳入了湿度、太阳辐射和风速等变量。
The analysis individually examined all the cities in the United States, Mexico, and Canada that will host 2026 World Cup matches. To do so, it considered specific local factors, including altitude, ambient humidity, regional climate, and the urban characteristics of each venue.
该分析对美国、墨西哥和加拿大所有将举办 2026 年世界杯比赛的城市进行了逐一考察。为此，研究考虑了特定的当地因素，包括海拔、环境湿度、区域气候以及每个场馆的城市特征。
The researchers analyzed historical daily WBGT records for the period between June 11 and July 19, the scheduled dates of the tournament. They then compared these values with the safety limits set by FIFPro, the international soccer players’ union.
研究人员分析了 6 月 11 日至 7 月 19 日（即赛事预定日期）期间的历史每日 WBGT 记录。随后，他们将这些数值与国际职业足球运动员联合会（FIFPro）设定的安全限值进行了对比。
The organization set a WBGT index of 26° Celsius (78.8° Fahrenheit) as the threshold above which additional hydration and cooling measures would need to be implemented to protect the players. A temperature of 28° C (82.4° F) is considered high risk, the ceiling at which the organization recommended delaying or even suspending matches to avoid a potential health hazard.
该组织将 26 摄氏度（78.8 华氏度）的 WBGT 指数设定为阈值，超过此阈值就需要采取额外的补水和降温措施来保护球员。28 摄氏度（82.4 华氏度）被视为高风险，这是该组织建议推迟甚至暂停比赛以避免潜在健康危害的上限。
Based on these parameters, the study concludes that one in four matches could be played under the first risk scenario, while at least five matches will be played in conditions equal to or above 82° F on the WBGT index.
基于这些参数，研究得出结论：四分之一的比赛可能在第一种风险情境下进行，而至少有五场比赛将在 WBGT 指数等于或高于 82 华氏度的条件下进行。
The report warns that Miami, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Houston present a particularly worrisome scenario. The findings indicate that these cities have a return period of just one year for events reaching 82.4° Fahrenheit WBGT. In other words, there is a high probability that these extreme conditions will recur virtually every year during the World Cup dates.
报告警告称，迈阿密、堪萨斯城、费城、达拉斯和休斯顿的情况尤其令人担忧。调查结果显示，这些城市达到 82.4 华氏度 WBGT 的事件重现期仅为一年。换句话说，在世界杯期间，这些极端天气几乎每年都有很大概率再次出现。
The same frequency trend for the 78.8° Fahrenheit WBGT threshold is also observed in the US cities of Atlanta, Boston, and New York, as well as in the Mexican city of Monterrey.
在美国的亚特兰大、波士顿、纽约以及墨西哥的蒙特雷市，也观察到了 78.8 华氏度 WBGT 阈值的相同频率趋势。
The study stresses that the increase in these risks is closely related to the increasing global warming recorded in recent decades. In the case of matches held in 82.4° F, the probability of occurrence has at least doubled since 1994 in cities such as Los Angeles, Seattle, San Francisco, Monterrey, Toronto, and Vancouver, all of which are hosting games in this World Cup.
研究强调，这些风险的增加与近几十年来全球变暖的加剧密切相关。在洛杉矶、西雅图、旧金山、蒙特雷、多伦多和温哥华等本届世界杯举办城市，82.4 华氏度高温比赛发生的概率自 1994 年以来至少翻了一番。
Rubén del Campo, spokesman for Spain’s State Meteorological Agency, explained to SMC Spain that, since 1994, the global average temperature has increased by between 0.5 and 0.7 degrees Celsius. “It is a figure that may not seem very high, but it represents approximately half of the warming observed in the last century and a half. Moreover, since the mid-1990s, when the previous World Cup was held in the United States, the effects of climate change have intensified all over the planet, especially heat waves,” del Campo told SMC Spain.
西班牙国家气象局发言人鲁本·德尔·坎波（Rubén del Campo）向西班牙科学媒体中心（SMC Spain）解释说，自 1994 年以来，全球平均气温上升了 0.5 到 0.7 摄氏度。“这个数字看起来可能不高，但它大约相当于过去一个半世纪以来观测到的变暖幅度的一半。此外，自 20 世纪 90 年代中期上届美国世界杯举办以来，气候变化的影响在全球范围内加剧，尤其是热浪，”德尔·坎波告诉 SMC Spain。
The 2026 World Cup Will Be Played in Stifling Heat
2026 年世界杯将在闷热中进行
The WWA report joins other recent research that warns of extreme weather conditions predicted for the World Cup. At the end of 2024, a study published in the journal Scientific Reports warned that 10 of the 16 host stadiums present a “very high” risk of extreme heat, and that two of them could particularly affect players and attendees.
WWA 的这份报告与近期其他警告世界杯极端天气的相关研究不谋而合。2024 年底，发表在《科学报告》期刊上的一项研究警告称，16 个举办场馆中有 10 个存在“极高”的极端高温风险，其中两个场馆可能会对球员和观众造成特别严重的影响。
According to this research, the stadiums with the highest risk of generating severe heat stress are those of Arlington and Houston, both in Texas, as well as the BBVA Stadium in Monterrey.
根据这项研究，产生严重热应激风险最高的场馆是位于德克萨斯州的阿灵顿和休斯顿场馆，以及蒙特雷的 BBVA 体育场。
“This set of studies underscores the need to plan ahead for major events such as the World Cup, as well as implement proactive policies to mitigate heat. As the WBGT index only considers environmental conditions and does not incorporate sport’s own metabolic heat production or the insulating effects of clothing, which can limit heat loss, more advanced models and predictive tools are required to ensure the safety of athletes,” Julien Périard, director of the Institute of Sport and Exercise Research at the University of Canberra, told SMC Spain.
堪培拉大学运动与锻炼研究所所长朱利安·佩里亚德（Julien Périard）告诉 SMC Spain：“这一系列研究强调了为世界杯等重大赛事提前规划的必要性，以及实施主动政策以缓解高温的紧迫性。由于 WBGT 指数仅考虑环境条件，并未纳入运动本身产生的代谢热或衣物的隔热效应（这会限制散热），因此需要更先进的模型和预测工具来确保运动员的安全。”
FIFA maintains that the 2026 World Cup match schedule was designed based on a technical analysis of all venues, which took into account factors such as average temperatures, cooling infrastructure, public transport, and security conditions.
国际足联坚称，2026 年世界杯的赛程安排是基于对所有场馆的技术分析而设计的，其中考虑了平均气温、冷却基础设施、公共交通和安全状况等因素。
In response to warnings about high temperatures, the sporting body announced the implementation of three-minute hydration breaks at the halfway point of each half in all tournament matches.
针对有关高温的警告，该体育机构宣布在所有比赛的上下半场中途实施三分钟的补水休息时间。
However, WWA specialists believe that this measure should be accompanied by other preventive strategies, including adjustments to the warm-up times for players, improvements in infrastructure and cooling systems in stadiums, and stricter medical supervision during matches for both players and fans.
然而，WWA 的专家认为，这一措施还应辅以其他预防策略，包括调整球员的热身时间、改善场馆的基础设施和冷却系统，以及在比赛期间对球员和球迷进行更严格的医疗监督。
This article originally appeared on WIRED en Español and has been translated from Spanish. 本文最初发表于《连线》西班牙语版，由西班牙语翻译而来。