A Chinese rocket breaks apart dangerously close to the Starlink constellation
A Chinese rocket breaks apart dangerously close to the Starlink constellation
一枚中国火箭在星链卫星星座附近发生危险解体
The upper stage from a commercial Chinese rocket that launched last week has broken apart in space, spreading debris in a heavily trafficked part of low-Earth orbit home to the International Space Station and a significant portion of SpaceX’s Starlink broadband network. 上周发射的一枚中国商业火箭的上面级在太空中发生解体，在近地轨道的一个繁忙区域散布了碎片。该区域不仅是国际空间站的所在地，也分布着SpaceX星链宽带网络的大量卫星。
The breakup occurred shortly after the Zhuque-2E rocket reached orbit on June 9 with two satellites providing direct-to-cell communications, perhaps around the time the upper stage was expected to perform a disposal burn. 此次解体发生在6月9日“朱雀二号”火箭入轨后不久，当时火箭搭载了两颗提供手机直连通信功能的卫星。解体可能发生在上面级预定进行离轨燃烧的时间点前后。
The US Space Force confirmed the breakup event in a post on space-track.org, a website used by the military to distribute orbit data to the public. “The tracked pieces are being incorporated into routine conjunction assessment to support spaceflight safety,” the Space Force wrote in an advisory. “There are currently no threats to human spaceflight. Analysis is ongoing.” 美国太空军在space-track.org网站上发布公告确认了此次解体事件，该网站是军方用于向公众发布轨道数据的平台。太空军在公告中写道：“目前追踪到的碎片已被纳入常规碰撞评估，以支持航天飞行安全。目前对载人航天飞行没有威胁，相关分析仍在进行中。”
Counting the pieces
碎片清点
So far, the Space Force has not added any of the debris fragments to the official catalog of human-made space objects. Darren McKnight, a senior technical fellow at the orbital intelligence company LeoLabs, told Ars the fragmentation event likely generated 100 to 150 pieces of debris. 到目前为止，太空军尚未将任何碎片加入官方的人造空间物体目录。轨道情报公司LeoLabs的高级技术研究员达伦·麦克奈特（Darren McKnight）告诉Ars，此次解体事件可能产生了100到150块碎片。
In one piece, the second stage of the Zhuque-2E rocket, made by a Chinese company called LandSpace, measured between 25 and 30 feet (about 8 meters) long and 11 feet (3.35 meters) in diameter. The main body of the rocket’s upper stage is now orbiting between 208 miles and 263 miles (335-by-424 kilometers) at an inclination of 54.5 degrees to the equator. 作为整体的一部分，由中国蓝箭航天（LandSpace）制造的“朱雀二号”火箭二级长约25至30英尺（约8米），直径为11英尺（3.35米）。该火箭上面级的主体目前正以54.5度的轨道倾角，在208英里至263英里（335至424公里）的高度运行。
The uppermost part of this orbit crosses the orbit of the International Space Station, but aerodynamic drag will quickly pull all the debris fragments below the ISS. The debris could pose a greater threat to hundreds of Starlink satellites, particularly those providing direct-to-device connectivity and newly launched satellites, which fly at lower altitudes than the bulk of the Starlink constellation. 该轨道的最高点穿过了国际空间站的轨道，但大气阻力将很快把所有碎片拉至国际空间站轨道高度以下。这些碎片可能对数百颗星链卫星构成更大威胁，特别是那些提供手机直连功能以及新发射的卫星，因为它们的飞行高度低于星链星座的大部分卫星。
The good news is that this altitude is low enough for aerodynamic drag to cause most of the Zhuque-2E debris to reenter the atmosphere within a matter of months. Most of the material will burn up during reentry. The worst-case scenario is a debris-generating event over 400 miles (650 kilometers), where it will take decades or longer for an object to naturally fall back into the atmosphere. 好消息是，该高度足够低，大气阻力将导致大部分“朱雀二号”碎片在几个月内重返大气层。大部分材料会在重返过程中烧毁。最坏的情况是在400英里（650公里）以上发生碎片产生事件，在这种高度下，物体需要几十年甚至更长时间才能自然坠入大气层。
The bad news is that the Zhuque-2E’s breakup is the latest chapter in China’s growing contribution to the space junk problem. After decades of leaving spent rocket bodies in orbit, launch operators in most countries now reserve enough fuel to steer their upper stages back to Earth for controlled reentries. 坏消息是，“朱雀二号”的解体是中国在太空垃圾问题上“贡献”不断增加的最新篇章。在经历了数十年的轨道遗留废弃火箭箭体后，大多数国家的发射运营商现在都会预留足够的燃料，引导上面级返回地球进行受控再入。
Rocket bodies attributed to Russia and the former Soviet Union account for the bulk of the launch-related debris in long-lived orbits, followed by China and the United States. But the Russian and American numbers are declining or holding steady, while the mass of Chinese rocket bodies in these long-lived orbits has grown by more than 150 percent in the past five years, according to a new analysis by Space Domain Awareness expert Jim Shell. 归属于俄罗斯和前苏联的火箭箭体占据了长寿命轨道上发射相关碎片的大部分，其次是中国和美国。但根据空间领域感知专家吉姆·谢尔（Jim Shell）的一项新分析，俄美两国的相关数量正在下降或保持稳定，而中国在这些长寿命轨道上的火箭箭体质量在过去五年中增长了超过150%。
The increase comes as China ramps up launches of its own megaconstellations designed to compete with SpaceX’s Starlink. Ars reported on these numbers last month. 这一增长正值中国加大力度发射旨在与SpaceX星链竞争的自有巨型星座之际。Ars上个月曾报道过这些数据。
Rocket bodies are the most concerning sources of space debris because they are typically fairly large in size and mass, often with residual propellant and high-pressure gases that can trigger an explosion. There is no way to maneuver or dispose of them if left abandoned in orbit after releasing their payloads. 火箭箭体是太空碎片中最令人担忧的来源，因为它们通常体积和质量较大，且往往残留有推进剂和高压气体，可能引发爆炸。如果它们在释放载荷后被遗弃在轨道上，将无法进行机动或处置。
McKnight characterized the recent breakup of the Zhuque-2E rocket as a “slight space safety issue,” but the trend is not good. China’s Long March 6A rocket has an especially bad track record, including two explosions that littered a higher-altitude low-Earth orbit with more than 1,000碎片. 麦克奈特将最近“朱雀二号”火箭的解体描述为“轻微的空间安全问题”，但这种趋势并不乐观。中国的长征六号甲运载火箭记录尤其糟糕，包括两次爆炸，在更高高度的近地轨道上留下了1000多块碎片。
“Three of the top four breakup events in LEO are of Chinese origin, with two of these events being from Chinese (rocket body) explosions in the last four years,” McKnight said. “近地轨道上排名前四的解体事件中，有三起源自中国，其中两起是过去四年内中国（火箭箭体）的爆炸事件，”麦克奈特说道。