This World Cup, Bigger Might Not Really Be Better

本届世界杯：规模越大，未必越好

It’s often said that bigger means better. This year’s FIFA World Cup may put that to the test. By almost any metric, the 2026 tournament is the largest ever: the most host countries; the longest distances between stadiums; the most players, teams, and matches; and then there’s the eye-watering ticket prices.

人们常说“越大越好”，但今年的国际足联（FIFA）世界杯或许会对此进行一番考验。从几乎任何指标来看，2026年世界杯都是史上规模最大的一届：主办国最多、场馆间距离最远、参赛球员、球队和比赛场次最多，此外还有令人咋舌的门票价格。

The scale is a logistical nightmare for fans, teams, and host cities. Held across three countries—Canada, Mexico, and the US—48 teams (up from the usual 32) will navigate 16 host cities separated by thousands of miles and four distinct time zones.

这种规模对于球迷、球队和主办城市来说是一场后勤噩梦。本届赛事由加拿大、墨西哥和美国三个国家共同举办，48支球队（此前通常为32支）将在相隔数千英里、横跨四个不同时区的16个主办城市之间奔波。

With FIFA expanding the tournament to defend soccer’s dominance over a host of growing contender sports, fans and teams alike should get used to the upscaling, experts tell WIRED Middle East. Going forward, only the richest or largest nations will ever be able to host a tournament alone.

专家向《连线》中东版（WIRED Middle East）表示，为了捍卫足球在众多新兴竞技体育项目中的统治地位，国际足联正在扩大赛事规模，球迷和球队都应习惯这种“扩容”。未来，恐怕只有最富有或领土最广阔的国家才有能力独立举办世界杯。

Ticket Prices and Average Spend

门票价格与平均支出

The sky-high prices to attend games in this year’s tournament have drawn global attention. FIFA has been accused of pricing normal people out of soccer by implementing exorbitant rates for all but the least desirable seats.

今年赛事高昂的观赛门票价格引起了全球关注。国际足联被指责通过对除最差座位以外的所有位置设定天价，将普通民众挡在了足球赛事之外。

Flights and Hotels

机票与酒店

Industry data suggests that hotel rooms in host cities across Canada, the US, and Mexico are also surging in price. “Average attendance cost in the US host cities is running north of $5,000 a head, before you’ve factored in flight costs between venues,” says Christos Anagnostopoulos, an assistant professor in sports management at Hamad Bin Khalifa University in Qatar.

行业数据显示，加拿大、美国和墨西哥主办城市的酒店客房价格也在飙升。卡塔尔哈马德·本·哈利法大学体育管理助理教授克里斯托斯·阿纳格诺斯托普洛斯（Christos Anagnostopoulos）表示：“在美国主办城市的平均观赛成本已超过每人5000美元，这还不包括场馆之间的机票费用。”

An average visitor is expected to spend around $5,400 in the US—far above the $720-$2,500 visitors to Qatar spent in 2022.

预计一名普通游客在美国的支出约为5400美元，远高于2022年卡塔尔世界杯期间游客720至2500美元的支出水平。

Transport at this year’s tournament is fundamentally different from that of the one-city tournament in Qatar, or in Russia in 2018, which provided free public transportation and an additional 500 trains to help people get around.

本届赛事的交通方式与卡塔尔的“一城式”世界杯，或2018年俄罗斯世界杯有着本质区别——后者提供了免费公共交通，并额外增开了500列火车以方便人员流动。

This year, because of the vast distances, the only option for fans and teams is flights, which airlines have been adding to accommodate potential World Cup travelers. “Teams and fans now must factor in flights, not metro rides, and the carbon and cost implications are real,” Anagnostopoulos says.

今年由于距离遥远，球迷和球队唯一的选择就是搭乘飞机，航空公司也一直在增加航班以满足潜在的世界杯旅客需求。阿纳格诺斯托普洛斯说：“球队和球迷现在必须考虑的是机票，而不是地铁票，这带来的碳排放和成本影响是实实在在的。”

The need to book flights, not trains or taxis, may also be decreasing demand for hotels simply because the travel costs are too high for some people. “US hotels are already reporting bookings below expectations,” Anagnostopoulos says. “Scale doesn’t guarantee the crowds will show up.”

由于旅行成本过高，人们需要预订机票而非火车或出租车，这可能也降低了对酒店的需求。阿纳格诺斯托普洛斯表示：“美国酒店业已经报告预订量低于预期。规模大并不保证观众一定会买账。”

Security

安保工作

For organizers and host cities, the scale of the tournament demands a massive investment in security, including against threats that would have barely crossed the minds of previous hosts.

对于组织者和主办城市而言，赛事的规模要求在安保方面进行巨额投资，包括防范那些以往主办国几乎不会考虑的安全威胁。

The US federal government has issued $625 million in grants for host cities to address security issues. On top of that, the Department of Homeland Security has made over $200 million worth of grants available to states to buy anti-drone technology, with the US State Department highlighting hostile actors’ increasing access to drones and other technology.

美国联邦政府已向主办城市发放了6.25亿美元的拨款，用于解决安全问题。此外，国土安全部还向各州提供了价值超过2亿美元的拨款，用于购买反无人机技术，美国国务院也强调了敌对势力获取无人机及其他技术的能力正在增强。

In Canada, federal authorities have issued around $104 million worth of grants to host cities Vancouver and Toronto. That brings total public grants in Canada and the US alone to nearly $1 billion—likely just a fraction of the real costs of securing the tournament.

在加拿大，联邦政府已向温哥华和多伦多这两个主办城市发放了约1.04亿加元的拨款。仅美加两国的公共拨款总额就已接近10亿美元，而这可能只是保障赛事安全实际成本的一小部分。

The size of the tournament, and the fact that it crosses borders, has pushed the price tag higher. “Qatar 2022 benefited from a highly compact geography, with venues operating within a relatively unified environment. The 2026 World Cup will involve multiple cities, jurisdictions, agencies, and technology ecosystems across the United States, Canada, and Mexico,” says Leo Levit, chair of Onvif, a membership body focused on standardization of physical security products.

赛事的规模以及跨国举办的事实推高了成本。“2022年卡塔尔世界杯受益于高度集中的地理位置，场馆在相对统一的环境中运作。而2026年世界杯将涉及美国、加拿大和墨西哥境内的多个城市、司法管辖区、机构和技术生态系统，”专注于物理安防产品标准化的会员组织Onvif的主席利奥·莱维特（Leo Levit）表示。

“The challenge is not simply the number of systems involved, but whether those systems can exchange information efficiently,” he adds.

他补充道：“挑战不仅在于涉及的系统数量，还在于这些系统能否高效地交换信息。”

The Future of the World Cup

世界杯的未来

The numbers tell a story of a tournament straining under its own ambition. It’s not yet clear whether these investments will pay off in terms of tickets bought and advertising slots sold. Why, then, is FIFA pursuing growth at all costs?

这些数字讲述了一个因自身野心而倍感压力的赛事故事。目前尚不清楚这些投资能否在门票销售和广告位售卖方面获得回报。那么，为什么国际足联要不惜一切代价追求增长呢？

According to Simon Chadwick, professor of sport and geopolitical economy at the international SKEMA Business School, the reason may be growing competition from other sports.

国际SKEMA商学院体育与地缘政治经济学教授西蒙·查德威克（Simon Chadwick）认为，原因可能在于来自其他体育项目的竞争日益激烈。

“What [FIFA president Gianni] Infantino is trying to do is to ensure that football remains robust, relevant, prominent and that it doesn’t begin losing market share—to the NBA, which is in China, India, Africa, and the Gulf region; to the NFL, which is making moves on Europe; and to Formula One, which has grown hugely in popularity, particularly in North America,” Chadwick says.

查德威克说：“（国际足联主席）因凡蒂诺试图确保足球运动保持强劲、相关且突出，不至于失去市场份额——比如输给在中国、印度、非洲和海湾地区发展的NBA；输给正在进军欧洲的NFL；以及在北美地区人气暴涨的一级方程式赛车（F1）。”

Adding more teams to the tournament means that more space for players and fans is required, but it also means more viewers and tickets sold. FIFA is forecasting 6 billion engagements across TV, streaming, and digital platforms this year, up from last tournament’s 5 billion. Over 5 million people will attend in person, compared with Qatar’s 3.4 million.

增加参赛球队意味着需要为球员和球迷提供更多空间，但也意味着会有更多的观众和门票销售。国际足联预计今年电视、流媒体和数字平台的参与度将达到60亿次，高于上届的50亿次。现场观赛人数将超过500万人，而卡塔尔世界杯为340万人。

But protecting soccer’s global primacy comes with a trade-off: It looks increasingly likely that only a select few economies will ever be able to host the tournament alone. The World Cup is now “too big for most nations,” Anagnostopoulos says, explaining that the tournament has even outgrown France, Germany, Russia, or England.

但维护足球的全球首要地位是有代价的：看起来越来越只有少数几个经济体才有能力独立举办世界杯。阿纳格诺斯托普洛斯表示，世界杯现在对大多数国家来说“太大了”，他解释说，这项赛事的规模甚至已经超过了法国、德国、俄罗斯或英国的承办能力。

“From here, you either have to be enormously rich—China, Saudi Arabia—and willing to build a host nation from scratch—India—or you have to share the load across borders,” he says. “The days of a single traditional football nation hosting alone are probably numbered.”

“从现在起，你要么必须极其富有（如中国、沙特阿拉伯），并愿意从零开始建设主办国（如印度），要么就必须跨国分担压力，”他说，“传统的足球强国独立举办世界杯的日子恐怕屈指可数了。”

This article originally appeared on WIRED Middle East. 本文最初发表于《连线》中东版。