Polymarket’s viral videos showed people winning big, but the bets were fake

Polymarket 的病毒式视频展示了人们赢得大奖，但这些赌注全是假的

Polymarket paid dozens of social media users to film themselves making fake bets for a promotion that aimed to convince people they can strike it rich on the prediction market, according to a Wall Street Journal investigation published on Saturday. 据《华尔街日报》周六发表的一项调查显示，Polymarket 曾向数十名社交媒体用户付费，让他们拍摄自己进行虚假投注的视频。此举旨在通过促销活动说服人们，让他们相信自己可以在该预测市场上发大财。

“In its push to draw users to its unregulated platform, Polymarket has flooded social media with videos like [George] Makihara’s, which appear genuine at first glance,” the article said. “In reality, Polymarket built near-perfect copies of its website, then instructed creators to make simulated trades on those dummy sites and hide that they were being paid by Polymarket.” 文章称：“为了吸引用户进入其不受监管的平台，Polymarket 在社交媒体上充斥着像 [George] Makihara 那样的视频，这些视频乍看之下非常真实。实际上，Polymarket 制作了几乎完美的网站副本，然后指示创作者在这些虚假网站上进行模拟交易，并隐瞒他们收受了 Polymarket 报酬的事实。”

Makihara, a college student, posted a video in January “that showed him winning $100,000 on a wager that President Trump would publicly say the word ‘McDonald’s’ that month.” But trade data showed that no one on Polymarket won such a bet in January, according to the Journal. This was one of 145 bets that Makihara appeared to place on Polymarket between January and May, but all of those bets were fake, the article said. 大学生 Makihara 在一月份发布了一段视频，“展示了他因押注特朗普总统当月会公开说出‘麦当劳’一词而赢得了 10 万美元”。但据《华尔街日报》报道，交易数据显示，一月份并没有人在 Polymarket 上赢得过此类赌注。文章指出，这是 Makihara 在 1 月至 5 月间在 Polymarket 上进行的 145 笔赌注之一，但所有这些赌注都是假的。

“Many of the videos share a template: The creators open Polymarket, place a bet, and frequently refer to their winnings as ‘free money.’ Dozens of social-media creators have posted videos with almost identical formats,” the Journal reported. “Polymarket sends creators bullet-point guidance on what to say, according to creators who have worked with the company and a recruiting website.” 《华尔街日报》报道称：“许多视频都遵循一个模板：创作者打开 Polymarket，下注，并频繁地将他们的奖金称为‘免费的钱’。数十名社交媒体创作者发布了格式几乎完全相同的视频。据曾与该公司合作的创作者和一个招聘网站透露，Polymarket 会向创作者发送关于该说什么的要点指南。”

Polymarket’s main platform barred in US

Polymarket 的主平台在美国被禁

The promotion reportedly targeted US residents by paying creators only when at least 60 percent of their viewers were in the United States. Polymarket’s main platform technically hasn’t been available in the US since 2022, when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) determined Polymarket was operating an illegally unregistered exchange. 据报道，该促销活动针对的是美国居民，只有当创作者至少 60% 的观众位于美国时，他们才会获得报酬。自 2022 年美国商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 认定 Polymarket 在运营一个未经注册的非法交易所以来，Polymarket 的主平台在技术上一直无法在美国使用。

Polymarket’s main website is restricted to view-only mode in the United States, but users can get around the block by using a virtual private network to change their apparent location. Polymarket is seeking the CFTC’s permission to bring its main exchange back to the US, but also offers a more limited, US-regulated version of its trading service through a mobile app. Polymarket launched the app last year after acquiring QCX, a firm that is licensed by the CFTC and now operates under the name Polymarket US. Polymarket 的主网站在美国被限制为仅查看模式，但用户可以通过使用虚拟专用网络 (VPN) 更改其显示位置来绕过封锁。Polymarket 正在寻求 CFTC 的许可，以将其主交易所带回美国，同时也通过移动应用程序提供了一个更受限、符合美国监管的交易服务版本。Polymarket 在去年收购了 QCX 后推出了该应用程序，QCX 是一家获得 CFTC 许可的公司，目前以 Polymarket US 的名义运营。

The Journal said it reviewed 1,105 videos made by 10 creators and identified fake bets totaling $1.9 million. While most of the videos were of fake bets being placed, there were 118 videos of “creators reacting to outdated footage or fake headlines suggesting they’d won.” Those 118 videos showed creators winning almost $900,000, but the bets in reality would have lost over $166,000, the report said. 《华尔街日报》表示，他们审查了由 10 位创作者制作的 1,105 个视频，并识别出总额为 190 万美元的虚假赌注。虽然大多数视频是关于进行虚假投注的，但有 118 个视频是“创作者对过时的镜头或暗示他们获胜的虚假头条新闻做出反应”。报告称，这 118 个视频显示创作者赢得了近 90 万美元，但实际上这些赌注会亏损超过 16.6 万美元。

The Polymarket “campaign racked up more than 140 million views on TikTok, YouTube and Instagram,” the report said, citing data from analytics provider Tubular. Polymarket “hired and worked closely with” a marketing firm that enlisted a “social-media army to repost content made by 10 Polymarket creators in particular, Makihara among them,” the article said. The Journal said it reviewed “nearly 20,000 messages from a chat group for Polymarket’s online content-creating contractors, and instructional documents and videos prepared for them.” 据分析提供商 Tubular 的数据显示，Polymarket 的“这项活动在 TikTok、YouTube 和 Instagram 上获得了超过 1.4 亿次的观看量”。文章称，Polymarket “聘请并与一家营销公司密切合作”，该公司招募了一支“社交媒体大军，专门转发由 10 位 Polymarket 创作者制作的内容，其中就包括 Makihara”。《华尔街日报》表示，他们审查了“来自 Polymarket 在线内容创作承包商聊天群的近 2 万条消息，以及为他们准备的指导文件和视频”。

Videos used fake “poiymarket” site

视频使用了虚假的“poiymarket”网站

Video creators were reportedly told to make their posts seem “personal and organic,” to ensure that the word “Polymarket” did not appear in their account names, and to not disclose that they were paid. Creators were reportedly paid $2,000 to $3,000 a month. “These creators didn’t initially identify themselves as paid by Polymarket, although one offered a $20 bonus code in his social-media bio. The creators started adding ‘@polymarket partner’ to their bios after the Journal started asking the company about its marketing operation,” the article said. 据报道，视频创作者被告知要让他们的帖子看起来“个性化且自然”，确保“Polymarket”一词不出现在他们的账户名称中，并且不要透露他们获得了报酬。据称，创作者每月可获得 2,000 至 3,000 美元的报酬。文章称：“这些创作者最初并没有表明自己是由 Polymarket 付费的，尽管其中一人在社交媒体简介中提供了一个 20 美元的奖励代码。在《华尔街日报》开始向该公司询问其营销运作情况后，创作者们才开始在简介中添加‘@polymarket partner’。”

The Journal said it identified various discrepancies between the real Polymarket site and the fake ones used by creators. “One password-protected website has the creatively misspelled URL poiymarket.com, which is indistinguishable from polymarket.com when the ‘i’ is capitalized,” the report said. The Journal report said a person familiar with the matter confirmed that Polymarket itself built poiymarket.com. “The ‘poiymarket’ website was taken down after the Journal reached out to Polymarket for comment,” the article said. 《华尔街日报》表示，他们发现了真实的 Polymarket 网站与创作者使用的虚假网站之间的各种差异。报告称：“一个受密码保护的网站使用了拼写错误的 URL poiymarket.com，当‘i’大写时，它与 polymarket.com 无法区分。”《华尔街日报》的报道称，一位知情人士证实，poiymarket.com 本身就是由 Polymarket 建立的。文章称：“在《华尔街日报》联系 Polymarket 置评后，‘poiymarket’网站已被关闭。”

Creators told the Journal that they sent videos to Polymarket for review and that Polymarket asked for videos to be reshot if they were too obviously fake. Despite that precaution, some videos “contained short glimpses of URLs indicating the sites were test environments for Polymarket engineers.” 创作者告诉《华尔街日报》，他们会将视频发送给 Polymarket 进行审核，如果视频看起来太假，Polymarket 会要求重拍。尽管有此预防措施，但一些视频“还是短暂地露出了 URL，表明这些网站是 Polymarket 工程师的测试环境”。

Polymarket pledges “comprehensive audit”

Polymarket 承诺进行“全面审计”

When contacted by Ars today, Polymarket did not specifically address the WSJ’s findings but said it is conducting an audit of its promotional content. “As the world’s leading prediction market, we are committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets,” the Polymarket statement said. “We are part of a rapidly growing industry and are constantly evaluating ways to improve how we’re engaging and earning the trust of our audience. As part of that commitment, we are conducting a comprehensive audit of active promotional content to ensure it complies with our standards, as well as applicable regulatory and legal disclosure requirements.” 当 Ars 今天联系 Polymarket 时，该公司没有具体回应《华尔街日报》的调查结果，但表示正在对其促销内容进行审计。Polymarket 的声明称：“作为全球领先的预测市场，我们致力于维护准确、公平和透明的市场。我们处于一个快速发展的行业中，并不断评估如何改善我们与受众互动并赢得其信任的方式。作为该承诺的一部分，我们正在对活跃的促销内容进行全面审计，以确保其符合我们的标准以及适用的监管和法律披露要求。”

While false and misleading promotions can be punished by the Federal Trade Commission, the Trump administration has tried to limit regulation of prediction markets. The CFTC has been suing states that try to impose strict rules on prediction markets to ensure that the entities remain under the more permissive federal regulatory scheme. Polymarket and its rival Kalshi both have Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor, and a Trump Jr.-backed venture capital firm invested. 虽然虚假和误导性的促销活动可能会受到联邦贸易委员会的惩罚，但特朗普政府一直试图限制对预测市场的监管。CFTC 一直在起诉那些试图对预测市场实施严格规则的州，以确保这些实体保持在更为宽松的联邦监管框架之下。Polymarket 及其竞争对手 Kalshi 都有小唐纳德·特朗普担任顾问，且一家由小特朗普支持的风险投资公司也进行了投资。