Mark Zuckerberg wants Meta to launch its own prediction market

马克·扎克伯格希望 Meta 推出自己的预测市场

Mark Zuckerberg is betting that prediction markets are the future. The New York Times reports that Zuck wants Meta to have its own Polymarket-like smartphone app and has given the go-ahead to develop one, internally calling it “Arena.” 马克·扎克伯格押注预测市场是未来趋势。《纽约时报》报道称，扎克伯格希望 Meta 拥有一款类似 Polymarket 的智能手机应用，并已批准开发，内部代号为“Arena”。

The app would be independent of Meta’s other social media offerings, although sources told the paper that those social sites could direct users to engagement with the app. Sources said the current concept for Arena can be described as “experimental but a top priority,” and it weirdly wouldn’t involve money. Instead, it would essentially be a video game where users would earn points for betting correctly on particular topics. The sources added that money could be added later. 该应用将独立于 Meta 旗下的其他社交媒体产品，不过消息人士告诉该报，这些社交网站可能会引导用户参与该应用。消息人士称，Arena 目前的概念可以被描述为“实验性但属于优先事项”，且奇怪的是，它不会涉及金钱交易。相反，它本质上更像是一款电子游戏，用户通过对特定话题进行正确预测来赚取积分。消息人士补充说，未来可能会引入金钱交易。

Over the past year, prediction markets have fueled big profits and controversy. As of April, trading volume on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi had reached tens of billions of dollars. Other social media sites — like X (which forged a partnership with Polymarket last summer) — have sought to capitalize on the industry. 在过去的一年里，预测市场带来了巨额利润，同时也引发了争议。截至四月，Polymarket 和 Kalshi 等平台的交易额已达到数百亿美元。其他社交媒体网站——例如去年夏天与 Polymarket 建立合作关系的 X——也一直在寻求从该行业中获利。

Legal cases have also spiked. A notable case involves a former high-ranking special forces soldier who was accused of using insider knowledge to profit from the operation to capture Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. George Santos is also currently under investigation over alleged Kalshi trades. 法律诉讼案件也随之激增。一个值得注意的案例涉及一名一名前高级特种部队士兵，他被指控利用内幕消息从抓捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的行动中获利。乔治·桑托斯（George Santos）目前也因涉嫌 Kalshi 交易而受到调查。

States have also begun to sue prediction markets over what they allege are violations of gambling laws. To complicate things further, the current administration, which is decidedly pro-prediction market, has sued states for having sued prediction markets. 各州也已开始起诉预测市场，指控其违反了赌博法。更复杂的是，现任政府明确支持预测市场，并已起诉那些起诉预测市场的州。