AI was supposed to kill engineering jobs, but new data suggests they’re the most resilient

AI 本应终结软件工程岗位，但最新数据表明该领域最具韧性

Whether AI is already replacing jobs is the subject of fierce debate. Tech layoffs hit their highest single month total in years in May, and AI was the most-cited reason, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Software engineering, in theory, is the professional field most vulnerable to automation, given the rapid adoption of AI-powered coding tools. 人工智能是否已经开始取代工作岗位，目前正引发激烈争论。据就业安置公司 Challenger, Gray & Christmas 的数据显示，5 月份科技行业的裁员人数创下了多年来的单月最高纪录，而人工智能是裁员理由中被提及次数最多的原因。从理论上讲，鉴于 AI 编程工具的迅速普及，软件工程是受自动化影响最脆弱的专业领域。

However, researchers at venture firm SignalFire say the hiring data tells a different story. “The rationale given for lots of layoffs is consistently AI, and specifically they’ll say AI with respect to code; they’ll say one engineer could do the job of however many engineers in the past,” said Asher Bantock, SignalFire’s head of research. “What we’re seeing on the ground is a little inconsistent with that.” 然而，风险投资公司 SignalFire 的研究人员表示，招聘数据揭示了截然不同的情况。SignalFire 研究主管 Asher Bantock 表示：“许多裁员给出的理由始终是人工智能，特别是针对代码领域；他们声称一名工程师现在可以完成过去多名工程师的工作。但我们在实地观察到的情况与此并不完全一致。”

SignalFire’s analysis, which tracked the careers of millions of employees across more than 80 million companies, suggests that engineering was the most resilient job function in 2025. Instead of focusing on layoffs, which are difficult to track because people often delay updating their employment status after job cuts, SignalFire examined hiring data as a more accurate indicator of real-time workforce trends. SignalFire 的分析追踪了超过 8000 万家公司中数百万员工的职业生涯，结果显示，工程岗位是 2025 年最具韧性的职能。由于人们在被裁员后往往会延迟更新就业状态，导致裁员数据难以追踪，因此 SignalFire 转而将招聘数据作为衡量实时劳动力趋势的更准确指标。

While total hiring across large tech companies dropped 25% compared to 2019 levels, engineering roles saw a much smaller decline of just 11%, according to SignalFire’s latest “State of Talent Report.” In fact, engineers comprised 55% of all new hires in 2025 across the 12 companies SignalFire classifies as “Tech Majors” — Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, Tesla, Uber, Airbnb, Block, and Stripe. This is a significant jump from 2019, when engineers represented only 46% of new recruits, according to the report. 根据 SignalFire 最新的《人才状况报告》，虽然大型科技公司的整体招聘人数较 2019 年水平下降了 25%，但工程岗位的降幅要小得多，仅为 11%。事实上，在 SignalFire 归类的 12 家“科技巨头”（Alphabet、Meta、Apple、Amazon、Microsoft、Netflix、Nvidia、Tesla、Uber、Airbnb、Block 和 Stripe）中，2025 年新招聘员工中工程师占比高达 55%。报告显示，这一比例较 2019 年的 46% 有了显著提升。

The continued need for engineers was even more evident at early-stage startups, which collectively brought on 7% more engineers in 2025 than they did in 2019, SignalFire’s data shows. If AI were truly substituting for engineering talent, Bantock argued, engineering hiring would be the first to fall amid the current tech hiring contraction. Instead, SignalFire’s data shows that engineering headcount is growing faster than most other job functions in tech. SignalFire 的数据显示，早期初创公司对工程师的持续需求更为明显，它们在 2025 年招聘的工程师总数比 2019 年增加了 7%。Bantock 认为，如果人工智能真的在取代工程人才，那么在当前的科技行业招聘紧缩中，工程岗位的招聘应该是首当其冲受到影响的。然而，SignalFire 的数据表明，工程岗位的增长速度快于科技行业中的大多数其他职能。

While Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned last year that AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment as high as 20% within five years, the company’s own head of economics, Peter McCrory, told TechCrunch in March that he had not yet seen any significant AI-driven effects on the workforce. 尽管 Anthropic 首席执行官 Dario Amodei 去年曾警告称，人工智能可能会在五年内消灭一半的入门级白领工作，并将失业率推高至 20%，但该公司自己的经济学主管 Peter McCrory 在 3 月份告诉 TechCrunch，他尚未看到人工智能对劳动力市场产生任何显著影响。

Said McCrory at the time: “There’s at least no larger material difference in unemployment rates” between workers who use Claude for the “most central task of their job in automated ways” — like technical writers, data entry clerks, and software engineers — and workers in jobs less exposed to AI that require “physical interaction and dexterity with the real world.” McCrory 当时表示：“至少在失业率方面，没有出现明显的实质性差异。”他对比了那些使用 Claude 以“自动化方式处理核心工作任务”的员工（如技术文档撰写员、数据录入员和软件工程师），与那些较少接触人工智能、需要“与现实世界进行物理交互和灵巧操作”的员工，两者之间并无显著区别。

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang went further still, outright rejecting the theory that AI will replace engineers. “Somebody said that AI is going to destroy all of the software engineering jobs,” Huang said in an interview at the Stanford Graduate School of Business in April. He then argued the opposite of that is true. Now that all engineers at Nvidia are using agentic AI, “software engineers are busier than ever,” he said. 英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋则更进一步，直接反驳了人工智能将取代工程师的理论。黄仁勋在 4 月份斯坦福大学商学院的一次采访中说：“有人说人工智能将摧毁所有的软件工程工作。”他随后反驳称事实恰恰相反。他说，现在英伟达所有的工程师都在使用智能体 AI（agentic AI），“软件工程师比以往任何时候都更忙碌”。

Huang added that while agents are writing code near instantaneously, they are constantly pushing engineers to generate “the next idea.” For now at least, it seems that armed with AI, engineering has become a classic example of the Jevons paradox — the idea that greater efficiency doesn’t reduce demand for a resource; it increases it, because the work expands to fill the new capacity. As Bantock said of engineering talent in this moment: “They’re suddenly a lot more productive, and there’s endless work for them to do.” 黄仁勋补充说，虽然智能体几乎可以瞬间编写代码，但它们也在不断推动工程师去构思“下一个创意”。至少目前看来，在人工智能的武装下，工程领域已成为“杰文斯悖论”（Jevons paradox）的经典案例——即更高的效率并不会减少对资源的需求，反而会增加需求，因为工作量会随着新产能的出现而扩张。正如 Bantock 对当下工程人才的评价：“他们突然变得高效多了，而且有做不完的工作等着他们。”