What Europe’s heat wave means for the power grid

欧洲热浪对电网意味着什么

It’s been hard to look away from headlines about the European heat wave this week. Temperatures are breaking records across the continent, and the weather is threatening lives, shutting down schools, and in one particularly ironic case, forcing the cancellation of a London Climate Action Week event about extreme heat. 本周，欧洲热浪的新闻占据了各大头条，让人难以移开视线。整个欧洲大陆的气温不断打破纪录，极端天气不仅威胁着人们的生命安全，导致学校停课，甚至还出现了一个极具讽刺意味的案例：伦敦气候行动周一场关于极端高温的活动被迫取消。

As the summer ramps up and we see this kind of weather sweep around the Northern Hemisphere, I’m always keeping my eye on the power grid. And one notable update that caught my attention this week was news that a nuclear power plant in the south of France had to close down because of the heat. 随着夏季升温，这种天气席卷北半球，我始终密切关注着电网的情况。本周引起我注意的一个重要动态是：法国南部的一座核电站因高温被迫关闭。

Climate change is squeezing the grid from all sides, affecting both supply and demand. Heat can affect power availability, from generation to transmission infrastructure, as I covered in my latest story. But climate change is also helping push electricity use higher—and countries in Europe and around the world will need to adapt. 气候变化正从各个方面挤压电网，同时影响着电力供应和需求。正如我在最近的文章中所述，高温会影响从发电到输电基础设施的电力可用性。但气候变化同时也推高了用电需求，欧洲乃至全球各国都必须做出调整。

In the US, nearly 90% of homes have air-conditioning. That means many grids see their highest demand in the summer months, and the risk of brownouts and blackouts is at its worst. People are often quick to cast air-conditioning as a villain, and it’s true that the technology will account for a major chunk of the globe’s rising energy demand in the future. 在美国，近 90% 的家庭安装了空调。这意味着许多电网在夏季面临最高需求，也是电压骤降和停电风险最高的时期。人们往往很快将空调视为“罪魁祸首”，诚然，这项技术确实将占据未来全球能源需求增长的很大一部分。

But the reality is that heat waves can be incredibly dangerous, and as climate change pushes temperatures higher, that risk is becoming more real in parts of the world that haven’t historically had to worry quite so much about heat. In Europe, air-conditioning is historically much less common, with about 20% of homes across the continent using it. Some countries, including those getting hit by this heat wave, have even lower rates—the UK comes in at about 5%, and Germany is around 3%. 但现实情况是，热浪可能极其危险。随着气候变化推高气温，对于那些历史上无需过多担心高温的地区来说，这种风险正变得越来越真实。在欧洲，空调的普及率历来较低，整个大陆约有 20% 的家庭使用空调。一些国家（包括此次受热浪袭击的国家）的普及率甚至更低——英国约为 5%，德国约为 3%。

But those numbers are starting to tick up as people adapt to increasingly brutal summers. As they do, we should expect higher electricity demand, and stress for the grid—just as in the US. And utilities often have to look across borders to buy more power, driving prices up for everyone. 但随着人们逐渐适应日益严酷的夏季，这些数字开始上升。随之而来的，我们将看到更高的电力需求以及电网压力——正如美国的情况一样。公用事业公司往往不得不跨国购买电力，从而推高了所有人的用电成本。

“The main pressure comes from a triple squeeze: Cooling demand rises sharply, while power plants and grids become less efficient, and some thermal and nuclear plants must cut output because cooling water is too warm or scarce,” says Simone Tagliapietra, senior fellow at Bruegel, an economic and policy think tank, via email. 经济与政策智库 Bruegel 的高级研究员西蒙·塔利亚皮特拉（Simone Tagliapietra）在邮件中表示：“主要的压力来自三重挤压：制冷需求急剧上升，同时发电厂和电网的效率下降，且一些火电厂和核电厂因冷却水过热或短缺而不得不削减产量。”

Grid planning in the age of climate change generally means that we need a lot more supply, and quickly. But one interesting facet to this challenge is that in some places, seasonal patterns are shifting, compounding the difficulty of meeting demand. Generally, grid operators plan maintenance and outages at power plants around expected peaks in demand. 在气候变化时代，电网规划通常意味着我们需要更多、更快的电力供应。但这一挑战的一个有趣方面是，在某些地方，季节性模式正在发生变化，这增加了满足需求的难度。通常，电网运营商会根据预期的需求高峰来安排发电厂的维护和停机。

Take nuclear power, for example. In the US, planned outages for maintenance and refueling tend to come in the spring and fall when demand falls below the summer and slightly smaller winter peaks. Europe, however, has historically seen its grid peak in the winter, because electric heating is more common than air-conditioning. So some planned outages happen in the spring and into the summer, which is affecting the supply right now. 以核电为例。在美国，为了维护和换料而进行的计划性停机通常安排在春季和秋季，因为此时的需求低于夏季和冬季的小高峰。然而，欧洲的电网需求历来在冬季达到峰值，因为电采暖比空调更普遍。因此，一些计划性停机发生在春季和夏季，这正在影响当前的电力供应。

At the Golfech power plant near Toulouse in France, for example, unit two had to shut down this week because of the water temperatures in the nearby river, which is used to cool the reactor. But unit one was already offline because of planned maintenance and refueling, according to EDF, the plant’s operator. 例如，在法国图卢兹附近的戈尔费什（Golfech）核电站，二号机组本周被迫关闭，原因是附近用于冷却反应堆的河水温度过高。据该电站运营商法国电力公司（EDF）称，一号机组此前已因计划内的维护和换料而处于离线状态。

We’re going to continue to see record-high temperatures around the world because of climate change. Communities are adapting, and utilities will have to follow. And if you thought this summer was hot, just wait until next year. With the El Niño weather pattern, 2027 could very well blow these heat waves out of the water. 由于气候变化，我们将继续看到全球气温创下新高。社区正在适应，公用事业公司也必须跟进。如果你觉得今年夏天已经够热了，那就等着明年吧。随着厄尔尼诺天气模式的影响，2027 年的气温很可能会让现在的热浪相形见绌。