The “sad inevitability” of Europe’s heat wave

欧洲热浪的“悲哀必然性”

Europe is in the midst of its second big heat wave of the year, and it’s breaking more records. France just recorded its hottest day ever, with temperatures exceeding 44° Celsius in some places. Around 40 people have drowned in local water bodies, likely attempting to escape the heat, and thousands more are without electricity. 欧洲正处于今年第二波大规模热浪之中，且不断刷新纪录。法国刚刚记录了有史以来最热的一天，部分地区气温超过了44摄氏度。约有40人在当地水域溺亡，这很可能是为了避暑所致，另有数千人面临电力中断。

As temperatures hit a sweltering 36° in some regions of the United Kingdom, schools canceled classes and train delays abounded. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described London as “cooking.” As the city hosts its annual Climate Action Week, the UK meteorological service has issued a red alert for multiple regions, signaling that exceptionally hot and humid weather is forecasted and likely to impact the general public. Switzerland and Spain have also issued warnings to residents. 随着英国部分地区气温飙升至闷热的36摄氏度，学校纷纷停课，火车延误频发。联合国秘书长古特雷斯形容伦敦正在“被烘烤”。在伦敦举办年度气候行动周之际，英国气象局已对多个地区发布红色预警，预示着极端高温高湿天气即将来临，并可能影响公众生活。瑞士和西班牙也向居民发布了预警。

Emma Howard Boyd, the former chair of the London Climate Resilience Review who now chairs the National Heat Risk Commission in the UK, said that when it comes to heat resilience in the country, the problem is not just homes—which are usually not air-conditioned. “All of our infrastructure was built for a different type of climate,” she said. Even seemingly small things, like malfunctioning elevators in tall buildings, could become lethal during a fire. The London Climate Resilience Review found that 18 elevators in public housing blocks in a single city borough failed during the 2022 heat wave. 曾任伦敦气候适应力审查委员会主席、现任英国国家高温风险委员会主席的艾玛·霍华德·博伊德（Emma Howard Boyd）表示，谈到英国的抗热能力，问题不仅仅在于通常没有空调的住宅。她说：“我们所有的基础设施都是为另一种气候类型而建造的。”即使是看似微不足道的事情，比如高层建筑中电梯故障，在火灾发生时也可能致命。伦敦气候适应力审查发现，在2022年的热浪中，仅伦敦一个行政区就有18部公共住房电梯发生故障。

National policies to address the changing climate, she said, should also take into account those most vulnerable to heat stress, like children, the elderly, and pregnant women. On Monday, two children died in a hot car in France. Heat can adversely impact many different essential bodily functions, like sleeping and exercising. 她指出，应对气候变化的国家政策还应考虑到那些最易受高温压力影响的人群，如儿童、老人和孕妇。周一，法国有两名儿童在闷热的车内死亡。高温会对睡眠和运动等许多重要的身体机能产生不利影响。

For many climate scientists, the link between the frequency and duration of these heat waves and climate change cannot be overstated. Some have even gone public with their dissatisfaction with the media coverage of the heat wave. This past May, only 40 percent of British television and radio news stories about the heat wave linked it to climate change, according to Climate News Tracker. 对于许多气候科学家来说，这些热浪的频率、持续时间与气候变化之间的联系怎么强调都不为过。一些科学家甚至公开表达了对媒体报道热浪方式的不满。据“气候新闻追踪”（Climate News Tracker）统计，今年5月，英国电视和广播中关于热浪的新闻报道里，仅有40%将其与气候变化联系起来。

“There’s a sad inevitability to all of this, with scientists like me trotting out the same quotes year after year,” Friederike Otto, a professor of climate science at the Imperial College London who leads the World Weather Attribution, a group that works to link weather events to climate change, said in an email. “Simply put, we remain on a one-way trip towards a more dangerous future, and it’s time we hit the brakes.” “这一切有一种悲哀的必然性，像我这样的科学家年复一年地重复着同样的引语，”伦敦帝国理工学院气候科学教授、负责“世界天气归因”（World Weather Attribution，一个致力于将天气事件与气候变化联系起来的组织）的弗里德里克·奥托（Friederike Otto）在电子邮件中写道。“简单来说，我们仍处于通往更危险未来的单程旅途中，是时候踩下刹车了。”

With the planet on track to exceed 1.5° Celsius of human-induced warming, it is no surprise that extreme heat events increase in frequency, intensity, and duration, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the California Institute for Water Resources at University of California, Los Angeles. “A rising tide raises all boats,” he said. 加州大学洛杉矶分校加州水资源研究所的气候科学家丹尼尔·斯温（Daniel Swain）表示，随着地球人类活动引起的气候变暖即将超过1.5摄氏度，极端高温事件在频率、强度和持续时间上增加也就不足为奇了。“水涨船高，”他说。

Climate warming doesn’t just worsen heat waves by increasing temperatures by a few degrees. For the most extreme events, scientists have found that a warmer climate can amplify meteorological feedback loops, further worsening heat waves and sometimes even leading to droughts. In Western Europe, the incidence of a type of weather system called a blocking pattern—essentially an atmospheric traffic jam that can extend weather patterns—has increased, and scientists are currently researching the link between these patterns, human-induced global warming, and heat waves. 气候变暖不仅仅是通过提高几度气温来加剧热浪。科学家发现，对于最极端的事件，变暖的气候会放大气象反馈循环，进一步恶化热浪，有时甚至导致干旱。在西欧，一种被称为“阻塞模式”（blocking pattern）的天气系统——本质上是一种可以延长天气模式的大气交通堵塞——发生率有所增加，科学家们目前正在研究这些模式、人类活动引起的全球变暖与热浪之间的联系。

“Heat waves are going to keep getting hotter and more frequent until we reach net zero,” Helen Millman, a climate scientist and postdoctoral research fellow at the Global Systems Institute at University of Exeter, said in an email. “While people worry about the upfront cost of decarbonising, that investment is tiny compared to what we will pay to constantly repair a country battered by a harsher climate.” “在我们实现净零排放之前，热浪将持续变得更热、更频繁，”埃克塞特大学全球系统研究所的气候科学家兼博士后研究员海伦·米尔曼（Helen Millman）在电子邮件中表示。“虽然人们担心脱碳的前期成本，但与我们为了不断修复一个被更恶劣气候摧残的国家所付出的代价相比，那点投资微不足道。”

Noah Diffenbaugh, an earth system sciences professor at Stanford University who has served as a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said that even if the European Union meets its goal of reaching net zero by 2050, that’s still another quarter-century of planet-warming greenhouse emissions being released into the atmosphere. 斯坦福大学地球系统科学教授、曾担任政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）主要作者的诺亚·迪芬鲍（Noah Diffenbaugh）表示，即使欧盟实现了到2050年达到净零排放的目标，那也意味着未来四分之一个世纪里，仍会有导致地球变暖的温室气体被排放到大气中。