Why Wall Street thinks US memory maker Micron is the next Nvidia
Why Wall Street thinks US memory maker Micron is the next Nvidia
为什么华尔街认为美国存储芯片制造商美光（Micron）是下一个英伟达
Micron, the Boise, Idaho-based memory chip maker, has captured Wall Street’s heart. Whether the love affair endures will heavily depend on how long the AI-driven supply crunch for memory chips lasts. Micron promises that it has shored up its position for the long term, which would allow it to withstand a sudden drop in demand or overcapacity of supply.
总部位于爱达荷州博伊西的存储芯片制造商美光（Micron）已经俘获了华尔街的心。这段“恋情”能否持久，很大程度上取决于人工智能驱动的存储芯片供应短缺将持续多久。美光承诺，公司已为长期发展巩固了地位，这将使其能够抵御需求突然下降或供应过剩的风险。
And Wall Street has become a believer, helping Micron briefly surpass the market valuation of Meta and Tesla for the first time on Thursday, though it floated back down by Friday to nearly match them. Specifically Micron closed Friday’s trading with a market cap close to $1.27 trillion, while Meta was at $1.39 trillion and Tesla was at $1.42 trillion. Micron’s stock has soared over 236% in the past month alone, closing Friday at $1,132 a share. In comparison, it spent years upon years before mid-2025 at below $100 a share.
华尔街对此深信不疑，助力美光在周四首次短暂超越了 Meta 和特斯拉的市值，尽管周五股价回落，与两者基本持平。具体而言，美光周五收盘时市值接近 1.27 万亿美元，而 Meta 为 1.39 万亿美元，特斯拉为 1.42 万亿美元。美光股价仅在过去一个月就飙升了超过 236%，周五收于每股 1,132 美元。相比之下，在 2025 年年中之前，该股曾多年徘徊在每股 100 美元以下。
It’s a dizzying rise for a company that most consumers associated with the tiny memory cards that, back in the day, were commonly needed to boost PCs, smartphones, or other device storage. Wall Street isn’t sweating over that product line. Micron is benefiting from the AI data center buildout boom that has created a shortage of system memory chips, both DRAM and NAND, which Micron makes, particularly High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM).
对于一家大多数消费者只将其与过去常用于提升个人电脑、智能手机或其他设备存储空间的小型存储卡联系在一起的公司来说，这是一个令人眩晕的崛起。华尔街并不担心那条产品线。美光正受益于人工智能数据中心建设的繁荣，这种繁荣导致了美光所生产的系统存储芯片（包括 DRAM 和 NAND，尤其是高带宽内存 HBM）的短缺。
A single AI server requires magnitudes more memory than a laptop. AI system makers like Nvidia, as well as the hyperscalers building their own systems, are buying up large quantities of memory, such as Microsoft, Amazon AWS, Google, Meta and Oracle. This is forcing all the other companies who need memory to hoard it as well, from PC makers like Dell and HP, to other kinds of device makers. This lack of supply, which has been dubbed RAMageddon, is predicted to persist into 2027. And it’s already driving up the price of consumer electronics like Apple products and Xbox consoles.
单台人工智能服务器所需的内存比笔记本电脑多出几个数量级。像英伟达这样的人工智能系统制造商，以及微软、亚马逊 AWS、谷歌、Meta 和甲骨文等正在构建自有系统的超大规模云服务商，都在大量采购内存。这迫使所有其他需要内存的公司，从戴尔和惠普等个人电脑制造商到其他类型的设备制造商，也开始囤积内存。这种被称为“内存末日”（RAMageddon）的供应短缺预计将持续到 2027 年。它已经推高了苹果产品和 Xbox 游戏机等消费电子产品的价格。
With the whole tech industry clamoring for more memory, Micron’s delivered blockbuster third-quarter earnings last week. Revenue quadrupled year-over-year to $41.45 billion, and profits skyrocketed from $1.88 billion to $28.2 billion over the same period. Micron also provided a positive outlook, forecasting fourth-quarter revenue of between $49 billion and $51 billion. And Wall Street, which has been eager to find more public AI-related companies that may do as well as Nvidia, became even more enamored.
随着整个科技行业对内存的需求激增，美光上周公布了重磅的第三季度财报。营收同比增长四倍，达到 414.5 亿美元，利润则从同期的 18.8 亿美元飙升至 282 亿美元。美光还给出了积极的展望，预计第四季度营收将在 490 亿至 510 亿美元之间。华尔街一直渴望找到更多像英伟达那样表现出色的公开上市人工智能相关公司，因此对美光更加青睐。
The historic problem for memory chip makers like Micron and Samsung is that building out manufacturing facilities to increase capacity is a time-consuming, expensive endeavor. And demand often falls just as companies can increase capacity, creating a glut and subsequent price drop. Micron got ahead of any AI bust chatter by emphasizing a series of long-term supply agreements, including with Nvidia and AI lab Anthropic, that would presumably protect it.
对于美光和三星等存储芯片制造商来说，历史性的难题在于，建设制造设施以提高产能是一项耗时且昂贵的工程。而且，往往在公司能够提高产能时，需求却下降了，从而导致供应过剩和随后的价格下跌。美光通过强调一系列长期供应协议（包括与英伟达和人工智能实验室 Anthropic 的协议）来应对任何关于人工智能泡沫破裂的讨论，这些协议理应能保护公司。
The company said in its earnings presentation that it has signed 16 strategic customer agreements across the data center, consumer, and auto market segments, which it expects to fundamentally transform its business model. That seemed to convince a number of analysts that this company could be another long-term, profitable investment. In a research note, William Blair tech analyst Sebastien Naji noted demand growth continues to outpace the rate that new cleanroom space can come online.
美光在财报演示中表示，已在数据中心、消费和汽车市场领域签署了 16 项战略客户协议，预计这将从根本上改变其商业模式。这似乎说服了许多分析师，认为该公司可能成为另一项长期盈利的投资。威廉·布莱尔（William Blair）的科技分析师塞巴斯蒂安·纳吉（Sebastien Naji）在一份研究报告中指出，需求增长持续超过新洁净室空间的投产速度。
“Given the strong likelihood of continued ASP growth in the coming quarters and improving revenue visibility thanks to a rapidly expanding set of long-term agreements (SCAs) with key customers, we see potential for more durable earnings growth and reiterate our Outperform rating,” Naji wrote.
纳吉写道：“鉴于未来几个季度平均售价（ASP）持续增长的可能性很大，且得益于与关键客户不断扩大的长期协议（SCA）带来的收入可见度提升，我们看到了更持久的盈利增长潜力，并重申我们的‘跑赢大盘’评级。”
Whether Micron really can sustain itself for long-term without a bust cycle remains to be seen. But for a brief moment on Thursday, this U.S. company was more valuable than some of the industry’s giants.
美光是否真的能在没有周期性崩盘的情况下实现长期持续发展，还有待观察。但在周四的短暂时刻，这家美国公司确实比一些行业巨头更具价值。