Kalshi sues Illinois over new tax on prediction market sports bets
Kalshi sues Illinois over new tax on prediction market sports bets
Kalshi 起诉伊利诺伊州，反对针对预测市场体育博彩征收新税
A fight between states and the federal government over who should regulate sports betting is heating up, as states accuse prediction markets like Kalshi of taking the exact same sports bets as gambling platforms without paying taxes or adhering to stricter controls. 各州与联邦政府之间关于谁应监管体育博彩的争端正在升温。各州指责像 Kalshi 这样的预测市场在进行与赌博平台完全相同的体育博彩业务时，却未缴纳税款或遵守更严格的监管规定。
Last Tuesday, Kalshi sued Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, Governor J.B. Pritzker, and other officials after the state classified Kalshi and other prediction markets as unlicensed sports wagering operators. It’s not the first legal battle between a prediction market and a state, but it is perhaps the most urgent for Kalshi, which is the biggest prediction market for sports bets. 上周二，在伊利诺伊州将 Kalshi 及其他预测市场归类为“无证体育博彩运营商”后，Kalshi 对伊利诺伊州总检察长夸梅·拉乌尔（Kwame Raoul）、州长 J.B. 普利兹克（J.B. Pritzker）及其他官员提起了诉讼。这并非预测市场与州政府之间的首次法律纠纷，但对于作为体育博彩领域最大预测市场的 Kalshi 而言，这或许是最紧迫的一次。
Across the board, prediction markets just had their biggest week ever, amid major sporting events like the NBA Finals, the World Cup, and the Stanley Cup. If the law stands, Kalshi would owe taxes no other state is charging and could face felony charges if violations are found. 在 NBA 总决赛、世界杯和斯坦利杯等重大体育赛事的推动下，预测市场刚刚度过了有史以来交易量最大的一周。如果该法律生效，Kalshi 将面临其他州未曾征收的税款，且一旦被认定违规，还可能面临重罪指控。
For Illinois, regulating prediction markets has fast become a priority. Kalshi’s lawsuit came after Illinois logged its most devastating year of legal sports betting losses on record in 2025, when residents lost close to $1.5 billion, the Daily Herald reported. And it’s not just existing exchanges that could siphon more losses off residents. As Meta toys with building a similar sport-wagering platform that could one day accept real money and plug into its vast social networks, it seems likely Illinois is hoping to get ahead on regulatory plans before such betting becomes even more popular and normalized. 对于伊利诺伊州而言，监管预测市场已迅速成为当务之急。据《每日先驱报》报道，在伊利诺伊州记录了 2025 年有史以来最惨重的合法体育博彩损失（居民损失近 15 亿美元）后，Kalshi 提起了诉讼。不仅是现有的交易平台可能导致居民损失加剧，随着 Meta 也在考虑构建类似的体育博彩平台，未来可能接入真实货币并整合进其庞大的社交网络，伊利诺伊州显然希望在此类博彩变得更加普及和常态化之前，提前制定监管计划。
Moving to regulate more sports betting in the state, Illinois passed a law adding new taxes specifically on sports betting conducted on prediction markets. Starting July 1, Kalshi would have owed a 1.75 percent tax on the first 5 million sports wagers per fiscal year, then a 3.5 percent tax on every subsequent wager. Additionally, getting the state license would have cost Kalshi $15 million for the first four years, then $1 million annually. Kalshi—valued at $22 billion—considers the license too “costly and burdensome,” the complaint said. 为了加强州内的体育博彩监管，伊利诺伊州通过了一项法律，专门针对在预测市场上进行的体育博彩征收新税。从 7 月 1 日起，Kalshi 需为每个财年的前 500 万笔体育投注缴纳 1.75% 的税款，随后的每笔投注则需缴纳 3.5% 的税款。此外，获得州政府牌照的前四年需支付 1500 万美元，之后每年需支付 100 万美元。诉状称，估值 220 亿美元的 Kalshi 认为该牌照“成本过高且负担沉重”。
Kalshi wants exclusive CFTC oversight
Kalshi 要求由商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）进行独家监管
Specifically, Kalshi sued to block Illinois from requiring the platform to obtain the expensive sports betting license, verify that bettors are located in the state, and pay additional taxes. The company has alleged that states like Illinois are overstepping in attempting to regulate prediction markets as if they were sports wagering operators. Instead, a federal agency, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has exclusive authority to regulate Kalshi, the platform argued. 具体而言，Kalshi 提起诉讼旨在阻止伊利诺伊州要求其获取昂贵的体育博彩牌照、核实投注者是否位于州内，以及缴纳额外税款。该公司声称，像伊利诺伊州这样的州政府试图将预测市场视为体育博彩运营商进行监管，属于越权行为。该平台辩称，联邦机构——商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）才拥有监管 Kalshi 的独家权力。
Further, Kalshi alleged that complying with Illinois law and restricting residents there would violate the CFTC’s requirements to provide uniform access nationwide to its platform. Without the court’s intervention, Kalshi will be forced to choose between violating state law or federal law, the platform argued. It has asked the court to clarify that the CFTC alone can regulate prediction markets and to order a preliminary injunction stopping Illinois from lumping Kalshi in with traditional betting platforms like FanDuel. Without an injunction, Kalshi may face civil and criminal penalties, the platform said. 此外，Kalshi 指出，遵守伊利诺伊州的法律并限制当地居民使用，将违反 CFTC 关于其平台必须在全国范围内提供统一访问权限的要求。该平台辩称，若没有法院的干预，Kalshi 将被迫在违反州法或联邦法之间做出选择。它已请求法院明确只有 CFTC 能够监管预测市场，并发布初步禁令，阻止伊利诺伊州将 Kalshi 与 FanDuel 等传统博彩平台混为一谈。Kalshi 表示，如果没有禁令，它可能面临民事和刑事处罚。
According to Kalshi, complying with Illinois law—and a patchwork of state laws that could follow—would also require the platform to invest in expensive “technological solutions to limit access.” And there’s no guarantee that Illinois would grant the license, threatening irreparable harms, including income and reputation loss, Kalshi argued. 据 Kalshi 称，遵守伊利诺伊州的法律（以及随后可能出现的各州法律大杂烩）还将要求该平台投入昂贵的“限制访问的技术解决方案”。Kalshi 认为，伊利诺伊州并不保证会授予牌照，这威胁到了其收入和声誉损失等不可挽回的损害。
What is a sports bet according to Kalshi?
根据 Kalshi 的定义，什么是体育博彩？
The key fight that Kalshi and other prediction markets must win is over the legal definition of sports betting. Kalshi’s lawsuit comes after the CFTC sued Illinois in April. In that complaint, the CFTC alleged that what Illinois defined as illegal sports bets on Kalshi were rather permissible “swaps” on “directives contracts” known as “event contracts” that the CFTC allows, so that stakeholders can hedge their risks when navigating uncertain but financially significant events. Kalshi 和其他预测市场必须赢得的关键之战，在于体育博彩的法律定义。Kalshi 的诉讼是在 CFTC 于 4 月起诉伊利诺伊州之后提起的。在当时的诉状中，CFTC 指出，伊利诺伊州所定义的 Kalshi 上的非法体育博彩，实际上是 CFTC 允许的“事件合约”（event contracts）下的合规“掉期交易”（swaps），旨在让利益相关者在应对不确定但具有重大财务影响的事件时能够对冲风险。
In its complaint, Kalshi explained that event contracts “are financial tools used to mitigate risk” caused by future events. As Kalshi explained: “They identify a future event with several possible outcomes, a payment schedule for the outcomes, and an expiration date. Most commonly, event contracts involve a binary question: Every ‘yes’ position has an equal and opposite ’no’ position. For example, a derivatives contract might center around whether a magnitude 8 earthquake will take place in Los Angeles County before January 1, 2027. A purchaser may trade on either the ‘yes’ or the ‘no’ position on the contract. If an earthquake does take place in Los Angeles County before the end of the calendar year, then the ‘yes’ positions would be paid out.” 在诉状中，Kalshi 解释称，事件合约是“用于减轻未来事件风险的金融工具”。Kalshi 解释道：“它们确定了一个具有多种可能结果的未来事件、支付时间表以及到期日。最常见的是，事件合约涉及一个二元问题：每一个‘是’的头寸都有一个相等且相反的‘否’头寸。例如，一份衍生品合约可能围绕 2027 年 1 月 1 日之前洛杉矶县是否会发生 8 级地震。购买者可以交易合约中的‘是’或‘否’头寸。如果地震确实在日历年结束前在洛杉矶县发生，那么‘是’头寸将获得赔付。”
The primary difference flagged by Kalshi is that there is no “bet” against the “house.” “Traders do not take a position against the exchange itself,” Kalshi said. Instead, “traders’ ability to hedge risk requires counterparties willing to assume risk in the hope of seeing a return.” Unlike sports bets, sports event contracts are financial tools for sports industry stakeholders, Kalshi argued. Examples included media companies hedging risks tied to viewership, advertisers weighing how lucrative a sponsorship might be, or insurance companies impacted by ticket revenue. Kalshi 指出的主要区别在于，这里不存在与“庄家”（house）对赌的情况。“交易者不是与交易所本身对赌，”Kalshi 表示。相反，“交易者对冲风险的能力需要有愿意承担风险以期获得回报的交易对手。”Kalshi 认为，与体育博彩不同，体育事件合约是为体育行业利益相关者提供的金融工具。例如，媒体公司可以对冲与收视率相关的风险，广告商可以评估赞助的盈利能力，或者保险公司可以对冲受门票收入影响的风险。
States disagree on sports bet definition
各州对体育博彩的定义存在分歧
However, most states disagree that the “swaps” of “event contracts” made on Kalshi—where Pew Research found sports made up 80 percent of trading volume since 2024—are different in any way from traditional sports bets. The outcome for bettors in both scenarios is always binary, states argued, since they either win or they lose. 然而，大多数州不同意 Kalshi 上进行的“事件合约”掉期交易与传统体育博彩有任何不同（皮尤研究中心发现，自 2024 年以来，体育类交易占了 Kalshi 交易量的 80%）。各州认为，在这两种情况下，投注者的结果始终是二元的，因为他们要么赢，要么输。