The US going 100% EV by 2040 would save more than 100k lives, study says

研究称：若美国在2040年实现100%电动化，可挽救超10万条生命

Although climate change is the primary motivation behind electric vehicle adoption, it isn’t the only consideration. Removing internal combustion engines from the road directly saves lives by reducing airborne pollutants that can cause and trigger asthma and other lung diseases. Now, a report from the International Council on Clean Transportation has tried to quantify that effect, comparing various electrification scenarios over the next couple of decades. 尽管气候变化是推动电动汽车普及的主要动力，但这并非唯一的考量因素。淘汰内燃机汽车能直接减少空气污染物，从而降低哮喘及其他肺部疾病的诱发率，进而挽救生命。近日，国际清洁交通委员会（ICCT）发布了一份报告，试图通过对比未来几十年的各种电动化情景，对这一健康效益进行量化。

Currently, more than 41,800 premature deaths are attributable to air pollution from road transport, the ICCT says. We’ve long known that living near a busy road is associated with worse health outcomes. Combustion products like nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), particulates (PMs), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are all found around highways and busy intersections in concentrations high enough to cause health effects, and studies have repeatedly shown that living close to a major roadway is associated with increased mortality. ICCT指出，目前全球每年有超过41,800例过早死亡与道路交通空气污染有关。我们早已知晓，居住在繁忙道路附近与较差的健康状况有关。氮氧化物（NOx）、一氧化碳（CO）、颗粒物（PM）和挥发性有机化合物（VOCs）等燃烧产物在高速公路和繁忙路口附近的浓度足以对健康造成影响，多项研究也反复证明，居住在主干道附近与死亡率上升存在关联。

The ICCT worked with the FIA Foundation—yes, the road safety nonprofit is related to the same FIA that’s in charge of F1 and other global motorsport—to create a model to estimate road transport emissions through to 2050. The model included light-duty vehicles (passenger cars and trucks), heavy-duty vehicles (delivery trucks, buses, tractor-trailers, etc), and two- and three-wheel vehicles. It predicted levels of NOx, black carbon and organic carbon, sulfur oxides, ammonia, CO, and VOCs. ICCT与国际汽联基金会（FIA Foundation）合作，建立了一个模型来估算至2050年的道路交通排放量。该模型涵盖了轻型车辆（乘用车和卡车）、重型车辆（配送卡车、公交车、半挂车等）以及两轮和三轮车辆。模型预测了氮氧化物、黑碳和有机碳、硫氧化物、氨、一氧化碳和挥发性有机化合物的排放水平。

The study then calculated the heart impacts from conditions like asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes, ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, and stroke (all linked to PM2.5 exposure and ozone exposure), as well as pediatric asthma incidence caused by NOx and NOx-attributable premature mortality in adults. Several scenarios were then run. 该研究随后计算了哮喘、慢性阻塞性肺病（COPD）、糖尿病、缺血性心脏病、肺癌和中风（均与PM2.5和臭氧暴露有关）对心脏的影响，以及由氮氧化物引起的儿童哮喘发病率和成人过早死亡率。研究随后模拟了多种情景。

The primary reference scenario uses August 2025 as the baseline, with a US government that’s openly hostile to the idea of clean energy. Another scenario considers what would happen if there is an ambitious effort to adopt EVs, assuming that 100 percent of all vehicles are zero-emissions by 2045, with some regions going all-EV for light vehicles by 2035 and for heavy vehicles by 2040. 主要参考情景以2025年8月为基准，假设美国政府对清洁能源持公开抵制态度。另一种情景则考虑了积极推动电动汽车普及的情况，假设到2045年所有车辆实现100%零排放，其中部分地区在2035年实现轻型车辆全面电动化，2040年实现重型车辆全面电动化。

Even under the baseline 2025 scenario, high-income regions like North America and Western Europe should see significant reductions in PM2.5 and NOx pollution. But in other parts of the world where incomes are lower, pollution could rise by 50 percent or more due to lax regulations and slower vehicle replacement. The ambitious scenario sees these disparities largely eliminated, with even the poorest countries seeing as much reduction in PM2.5 and NOx as the richest did in the baseline 2025 scenario. 即使在2025年的基准情景下，北美和西欧等高收入地区PM2.5和氮氧化物污染也应有显著下降。但在收入较低的其他地区，由于监管宽松和车辆更新缓慢，污染可能会增加50%甚至更多。而在积极情景下，这些差距基本被消除，即使是最贫穷的国家，其PM2.5和氮氧化物的减排量也能达到最富裕国家在基准情景下的水平。

A disproportionate amount of pollution comes from heavy-duty diesel-powered vehicles. Even though they account for only about one in 20 vehicles on the road, heavy-duty vehicles are responsible for 36 percent of transport energy consumption, 60 percent of tailpipe NOx, 55 percent of tailpipe PM2.5, and 65 percent of tailpipe SO2. Two- and three-wheelers are also rather dirty; despite representing just 4 percent of transport energy consumption, they contribute 14 percent of tailpipe PM2.5, 19 percent of tailpipe VOC, and 12 percent of tailpipe CO, according to the ICCT report. 重型柴油车排放了不成比例的污染物。尽管它们仅占道路车辆总数的约1/20，但重型车辆消耗了36%的交通能源，排放了60%的尾气氮氧化物、55%的尾气PM2.5和65%的尾气二氧化硫。据ICCT报告，两轮和三轮车也相当“脏”；尽管仅占交通能源消耗的4%，但它们贡献了14%的尾气PM2.5、19%的尾气VOC和12%的尾气一氧化碳。

The current health impact from transportation pollution amounted to almost 700,000 premature deaths worldwide in 2024 and nearly 250,000 new pediatric asthma cases. China saw the highest number of premature deaths, but the US was at the top of the chart for new asthma cases, with 23,100. Even under the baseline 2025 scenario, the US and other wealthy nations should see a 50 percent reduction in premature deaths and a slightly greater reduction in pediatric asthma cases. Ambitious EV adoption still has the potential to help prevent 108,400 premature deaths and 42,100 new pediatric asthma cases in the US by 2050. 2024年，交通污染对全球健康的影响导致了近70万例过早死亡和近25万例新增儿童哮喘病例。中国是过早死亡人数最多的国家，但美国以23,100例新增哮喘病例位居榜首。即使在2025年基准情景下，美国和其他富裕国家预计也能实现50%的过早死亡率下降，儿童哮喘病例的降幅则略高。而积极普及电动汽车仍有望帮助美国在2050年前避免108,400例过早死亡和42,100例新增儿童哮喘病例。

While there is a growing number of zero-emissions heavy-duty vehicles, including both battery EVs and hydrogen fuel cell EVs, adoption lags behind light-duty passenger vehicles. Zero-emissions heavy truck adoption reached 4 percent in the second half of 2025, with a cumulative total by December last year of 72,308 nationwide. While that doesn’t sound like much, it’s almost 20,000 more trucks than at the end of 2024, which is promising growth, even in the absence of tax credits or corporate environmental stewardship goals. 尽管零排放重型车辆（包括纯电动和氢燃料电池车）的数量在不断增加，但其普及速度仍落后于轻型乘用车。2025年下半年，零排放重型卡车的普及率达到4%，截至去年12月，全国累计总量为72,308辆。虽然这个数字看起来不多，但比2024年底增加了近2万辆，即便在缺乏税收抵免或企业环境管理目标的情况下，这仍是令人鼓舞的增长。

“Zero-emission freight makes economic sense across a growing number of routes, especially where diesel health impacts are greatest,” said Ray Minjares, program director at the International Council on Clean Transportation. “With smart policies that further drive down the cost and drive up the sales of electric freight vehicles, US states will deliver economic growth, energy savings and a pollution-free future.” “在越来越多的运输路线上，零排放货运在经济上是合理的，特别是在柴油污染对健康影响最严重的地区，”国际清洁交通委员会项目主任Ray Minjares表示。“通过进一步降低成本并提高电动货运车辆销量的明智政策，美国各州将实现经济增长、能源节约和一个无污染的未来。”