Penalty Shootouts: Is the Team That Kicks First More Likely to Win?
Penalty Shootouts: Is the Team That Kicks First More Likely to Win?
点球大战：先踢的一方胜算更大吗？
In a World Cup, some of the most important matches are decided by a penalty shootout. When that moment comes, the captains want to win the coin toss to decide the order of the kicks. The reason is an old belief: that regardless of the skill of the shooter and the goalkeeper, the team that takes the first penalty kick is more likely to win. Most soccer players take this for granted, but the reasons behind this apparent advantage remain a subject of scientific debate.
在世界杯中，一些最重要的比赛往往由点球大战决定。当那一刻来临时，队长们都希望赢得掷硬币的机会，以决定踢球的顺序。原因在于一个古老的信念：无论射手和门将的技术如何，先踢点球的球队获胜的可能性更大。大多数足球运动员对此深信不疑，但这种表面优势背后的原因仍然是科学界争论的话题。
While much of the strategic thinking around penalty kicks focuses on the order in which the players kick, it’s also important to note the psychological pressures as well. During this year’s World Cup, two of the first four round-of-32 matches—Paraguay’s win over Germany and Morocco’s defeat of the Netherlands—have been decided by these highly tense shootouts.
虽然关于点球的战略思考大多集中在球员踢球的顺序上，但同样重要的是要注意心理压力。在今年的世界杯期间，前四场 32 强赛中有两场——巴拉圭战胜德国和摩洛哥击败荷兰——都是由这些高度紧张的点球大战决定的。
For years, the prevailing explanation was psychological. According to this hypothesis, the team that takes the first penalty kick plays with less pressure, while the second team must constantly respond to avoid falling behind on the scoreboard. That emotional burden ultimately affects the players’ performance. A study published in 2010 in the American Economic Review became the benchmark on the subject, reporting that teams that started the shootout won nearly 60 percent of the time, compared to 40 percent for those who took their penalty kicks second.
多年来，主流的解释是心理层面的。根据这一假说，先踢点球的球队压力较小，而第二支球队必须不断做出回应以避免在比分上落后。这种情绪负担最终会影响球员的表现。2010 年发表在《美国经济评论》上的一项研究成为了该课题的基准，报告称先踢点球的球队获胜率接近 60%，而后踢的球队获胜率仅为 40%。
However, as databases grew and more researchers began studying the phenomenon, that advantage began to diminish. Most subsequent studies do not dispute that psychological pressure exists on the team that shoots second; what they question is whether that pressure is sufficient to produce much of a difference in the probability of winning a shootout.
然而，随着数据库的扩大和更多研究人员开始研究这一现象，这种优势开始减弱。大多数后续研究并不否认后踢点球的球队存在心理压力；他们质疑的是，这种压力是否足以在点球大战的胜率上产生显著差异。
Studies published in 2012, 2019, 2023, 2024, and 2025 progressively reduced the estimated size of the advantage. The most comprehensive analysis to date, based on nearly 7,000 penalty shootouts and 74,000 shots, found no evidence that the team taking the first shot wins more often than the team taking the second. Furthermore, the authors concluded that, if any advantage exists, it would be less than 1.8 percentage points—a much smaller difference than the much-discussed 60-40 split.
2012 年、2019 年、2023 年、2024 年和 2025 年发表的研究逐渐缩小了对这一优势的估计值。迄今为止最全面的分析基于近 7,000 场点球大战和 74,000 次射门，结果发现没有证据表明先踢点球的球队比后踢的球队获胜频率更高。此外，作者得出结论，即使存在任何优势，也低于 1.8 个百分点——这与广为讨论的 60-40 分割相比，差异要小得多。
A new group of researchers believes this question has been framed incorrectly. A recent study published in Football Studies suggests that, rather than asking whether there is an advantage to taking the first penalty kick, we should explain where that advantage might come from when it does occur. Their hypothesis holds that pressure remains the decisive factor but that not all high-pressure situations are the same. The key lies in distinguishing between penalty kicks where a miss immediately eliminates the team and those where a goal secures the victory.
一组新的研究人员认为这个问题被错误地表述了。最近发表在《足球研究》（Football Studies）上的一项研究表明，与其询问先踢点球是否有优势，我们更应该解释当这种优势出现时，它可能来自哪里。他们的假说认为，压力仍然是决定性因素，但并非所有高压情况都是一样的。关键在于区分那些“罚丢即被淘汰”的点球和那些“罚进即锁定胜局”的点球。
The study states that current soccer rules do not distribute moments of maximum pressure equally. The team that takes the second penalty kick faces situations where a miss means immediate elimination much more frequently, while opportunities to score and win are distributed differently as the shootout progresses.
该研究指出，目前的足球规则并没有平等地分配最大压力时刻。后踢点球的球队面临“罚丢即被淘汰”的情况频率要高得多，而随着点球大战的进行，得分和获胜的机会分布也各不相同。
The researchers found that penalty kicks where a goal immediately secured victory were successful 89.1 percent of the time. In contrast, when a miss meant immediate elimination, the success rate dropped to 60.4 percent. More importantly, they discovered that, once elimination and victory penalties were taken into account, whether a team took the first or second penalty no longer explained a significant portion of the observed performance. According to the authors, the apparent advantage of the first team does not stem from the order of the kicks but rather from the type of psychological situations that order creates.
研究人员发现，罚进即锁定胜局的点球成功率为 89.1%。相比之下，当罚丢意味着立即被淘汰时，成功率降至 60.4%。更重要的是，他们发现，一旦将淘汰和获胜点球考虑在内，球队是先踢还是后踢，已不再能解释观察到的表现中的显著差异。作者认为，先踢球队的表面优势并非源于踢球顺序，而是源于这种顺序所创造的心理情境类型。
The authors argue that these differences could have strategic implications. If some players handle extreme pressure better than others, it might be advisable to save them for those high-stakes penalty kicks rather than placing them at the beginning of the shootout.
作者认为，这些差异可能具有战略意义。如果某些球员比其他人更能应对极端压力，那么将他们留到那些高风险的点球时刻，而不是安排在点球大战开始时，可能更为明智。
Like any model, the study simplifies reality. It does not account for factors such as the goalkeeper’s strategy, the interaction between the goalkeeper and the shooter, the influence of the crowd, accumulated fatigue, or the individual psychological characteristics of each player. The authors themselves acknowledge that these variables will need to be incorporated into future research. Even so, the study does delve into one of the most dramatic moments in sports: how psychological pressure can sway the outcome of a penalty shootout and, in doing so, determine who lifts the World Cup and who returns home empty-handed.
像任何模型一样，这项研究简化了现实。它没有考虑门将策略、门将与射手之间的互动、观众的影响、累积疲劳或每位球员的个人心理特征等因素。作者本人也承认，这些变量需要在未来的研究中纳入。即便如此，这项研究确实深入探讨了体育运动中最具戏剧性的时刻之一：心理压力如何左右点球大战的结果，并以此决定谁能捧起世界杯，谁又将空手而归。