Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Whether a Wildfire Will Burn Down Your Town
Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Whether a Wildfire Will Burn Down Your Town
预测市场让你能够押注你的城镇是否会被野火烧毁
Sylvie Andrews and her partner didn’t just lose the new house they’d helped build when the Eaton Fire ripped through Altadena, California, in January 2025. They lost an entire decade’s worth of sacrifices they’d made to put down roots in their hometown, and the community they’d created. “We put a lot of blood, sweat, and tears into it,” Andrews said. “That’s what we lost in the fire.” 2025年1月，当伊顿大火（Eaton Fire）席卷加利福尼亚州阿尔塔迪纳时，西尔维·安德鲁斯（Sylvie Andrews）和她的伴侣不仅失去了他们亲手建造的新房，还失去了他们十年来为在家乡扎根所做的一切牺牲，以及他们建立的社区。“我们为此付出了大量的心血和汗水，”安德鲁斯说，“这就是我们在火灾中失去的东西。”
That fire, along with the Palisades Fire to the west, destroyed more than 16,000 structures and killed 31 people. But while Andrews and thousands of Angelenos were racing to evacuate, other people saw a financial opportunity. Using Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform, they made bets on the fires—how they would grow, how long they would last, and how much they would destroy. 那场大火，连同西部的帕利塞德大火（Palisades Fire），摧毁了超过16,000座建筑物，并造成31人死亡。然而，当安德鲁斯和成千上万的洛杉矶人争相撤离时，其他人却看到了经济机会。他们利用全球最大的预测市场平台Polymarket，对这些火灾进行押注——包括火势如何蔓延、持续多久以及会造成多大的破坏。
Prediction markets are essentially gambling websites where people bet on the outcome of events, including elections, sports, the weather, and more. Anything is fair game, from oil prices and the spread of infectious diseases to international incidents. Markets usually frame questions in a “yes” or “no” fashion, with the price of a “contract” fluctuating between $0 and $1. A price of 50 cents on a “yes” contract means that the people doing the betting collectively believe the event has a 50 percent chance of happening. Market hosts make money by charging a fee on wagers. 预测市场本质上是赌博网站，人们在其中对各种事件的结果进行下注，包括选举、体育赛事、天气等。从油价、传染病传播到国际事件，任何事情都可以成为博弈对象。市场通常以“是”或“否”的方式提出问题，“合约”价格在0美元到1美元之间波动。如果一份“是”合约的价格为50美分，意味着参与下注的人集体认为该事件发生的概率为50%。市场运营方通过收取投注手续费来获利。
In January 2025, Polymarket listed almost 20 questions, created by the platform’s “markets team,” related to the wildfires burning up Southern California. How many acres will the Palisades Fire burn by Friday, three days after it ignited on a Tuesday? Will the Palisades Fire reach Santa Monica by Sunday? When will the Palisades fire be 50 percent contained? Will the Palisades and Eaton fires be contained before February? 2025年1月，Polymarket列出了近20个由其“市场团队”创建的问题，均与南加州的野火有关。例如：帕利塞德大火在周二点燃后的三天（周五）将烧毁多少英亩土地？帕利塞德大火会在周日蔓延到圣莫尼卡吗？帕利塞德大火何时能实现50%的控制？帕利塞德大火和伊顿大火能在二月前被扑灭吗？
People spent $1.2 million betting on these queries, according to Aeon Magazine. “Wow,” Andrews said repeatedly when she learned the figure. “My first take is that it’s morally reprehensible,” she said. “The fact that someone would feel OK doing that flabbergasts me.” 据《永旺杂志》（Aeon Magazine）报道，人们在这些问题上投入了120万美元进行押注。当安德鲁斯得知这个数字时，反复惊呼：“哇。”她说：“我的第一反应是这在道德上是应受谴责的。竟然有人觉得这样做没问题，这让我感到震惊。”
“The prediction markets are just the wild, wild West,” said Susan Sherman, who grew up in Pacific Palisades. She lost her childhood home in the Palisades Fire; her late parents had owned it since 1963, and now it was gone. She sold the empty lot a few months ago. “I look at (betting on the fires) as just being very crass and heartless.” “预测市场简直就是狂野西部，”在太平洋帕利塞德长大的苏珊·谢尔曼（Susan Sherman）说。她在帕利塞德大火中失去了童年的家；她已故的父母自1963年起就拥有那栋房子，现在它已不复存在。几个月前，她卖掉了那块空地。“我认为（对火灾进行押注）是非常粗俗且冷酷无情的行为。”
As prediction markets boom and a new wildfire season begins, fire survivors and ethicists say that the betting encourages and rewards callous thinking—and dangerous behavior. 随着预测市场的蓬勃发展和新一轮野火季节的到来，火灾幸存者和伦理学家表示，这种押注行为鼓励并奖励了冷漠的思维，甚至可能引发危险行为。
One major concern stemming from wildfire prediction markets is arson. “That’s what has me nervous,” Sherman said. Theoretically, making a bet could give someone the perverse incentive to start a fire or help one grow. Unlike other disasters, such as hurricanes, flooding, or extreme heat, a fire can be manipulated in minutes by just one person. “Systems that tie financial gain to wildfire outcomes risk encouraging misuse, including arson, and are not compatible with our mission,” a spokesperson for the US Forest Service said. 野火预测市场引发的一个主要担忧是纵火。“这让我感到紧张，”谢尔曼说。从理论上讲，下注可能会给某些人提供一种扭曲的动机，去纵火或助长火势。与其他灾害（如飓风、洪水或极端高温）不同，火灾可以在几分钟内被一个人操纵。“将经济利益与野火结果挂钩的系统，存在鼓励滥用（包括纵火）的风险，这与我们的使命不符，”美国林务局的一位发言人表示。
“Imagine what a bad actor might do,” said Ann Skeet, the senior director of leadership ethics at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University. “A market that might support that kind of activity, I think, is a dangerous market.” Firefighters or land managers with exclusive information about a fire’s behavior or an agency’s firefighting plans could even be tempted to bet on a fire, which would be considered insider trading. “想象一下坏人可能会做什么，”圣克拉拉大学马库拉应用伦理学中心领导力伦理高级主任安·斯基特（Ann Skeet）说。“我认为，一个可能支持此类活动的市场是一个危险的市场。”掌握火灾动态或机构灭火计划等独家信息的消防员或土地管理者，甚至可能受到诱惑去对火灾进行押注，这将被视为内幕交易。
But the biggest dilemma is largely an ethical one. “When you start gambling on somebody’s potential death or harm, you’re really diminishing the value that you’re placing on human life,” Skeet said. 但最大的困境主要在于伦理层面。“当你开始拿某人的潜在死亡或伤害进行赌博时，你实际上是在贬低你对人类生命的重视程度，”斯基特说。
Betting on a wildfire’s outcome isn’t just limited to general prediction market platforms anymore. This year, ahead of what’s likely to be a busy fire season in the West, a new prediction market specifically focused on California fires was launched. Called Wyldfyre, it bears the tagline: “You can’t predict wildfire. But you can trade on it.” High Country News was unable to determine the platform’s owner or the owner of its website’s IP address; the website is opaque, with no contact information listed. 对野火结果的押注已不再局限于通用的预测市场平台。今年，在西部可能迎来繁忙的火灾季节之前，一个专门针对加州火灾的预测市场上线了。该平台名为Wyldfyre，其标语是：“你无法预测野火，但你可以对其进行交易。”《高地新闻》（High Country News）无法确定该平台的所有者或其网站IP地址的所有者；该网站信息不透明，未列出任何联系方式。
Currently, Wyldfyre users can only simulate trading, but according to the site, the ability to bet with real money is “coming soon.” The platform purports to be the first prediction market of its kind, pricing county and city wildfire risk in real time. “California burns. Every year. And it’s getting worse. The question isn’t if—it’s where and when,” the site reads. It includes hotspot data from NASA and National Interagency Fire Center fire perimeters to help gamblers make predictions. 目前，Wyldfyre用户只能进行模拟交易，但据该网站称，使用真钱下注的功能“即将推出”。该平台声称是此类预测市场的首创，能够实时为县市级的野火风险定价。“加州在燃烧。每年都在烧。而且情况越来越糟。问题不在于是否会发生，而在于何时何地发生，”网站上写道。它还包含了来自美国国家航空航天局（NASA）的热点数据和国家跨部门消防中心（National Interagency Fire Center）的火灾边界数据，以帮助赌徒进行预测。
Proponents of prediction markets say the platforms generate useful information through crowdsourcing. Wyldfyre frames its platform as providing a public good. “Wyldfyre turns collective intelligence into better wildfire forecasting—one trade at a time,” the site reads. 预测市场的支持者表示，这些平台通过众包产生了有用的信息。Wyldfyre将自己的平台定位为提供公共利益。“Wyldfyre通过每一次交易，将集体智慧转化为更好的野火预测，”网站上写道。
But entities with a real need for wildfire forecasting, including federal and state firefighting agencies, say they aren’t interested in prediction market data. “The Forest Service does not use information from prediction markets for wildfire forecasting, and we do not rely on any system that treats wildfire as an event for speculation,” an agency spokesperson told High Country News. “Our priority is protecting firefighters, communities, and public lands, and our fire analysts use validated science, proven predictive tools, and data from federal partners such as the National Weather Service, NOAA, and the National Interagency Fire Center.” 然而，真正需要野火预测的实体，包括联邦和州消防机构，表示他们对预测市场的数据并不感兴趣。“林务局不会使用来自预测市场的信息进行野火预测，我们也不依赖任何将野火视为投机事件的系统，”该机构发言人告诉《高地新闻》。“我们的首要任务是保护消防员、社区和公共土地，我们的火灾分析师使用经过验证的科学、成熟的预测工具，以及来自国家气象局、美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）和国家跨部门消防中心等联邦合作伙伴的数据。”
California’s state firefighting agency, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, has a similar policy. “Cal Fire does not use prediction‑market-derived data in wildfire forecasting or operational decisionmaking, nor are we currently evaluating 加州的州级消防机构——加州林业与消防局（Cal Fire）也有类似的政策。“加州消防局不会在野火预测或运营决策中使用源自预测市场的数据，我们目前也没有评估……”