Kremlin suspected of flying drones over Europe using Russian shadow fleet
Kremlin suspected of flying drones over Europe using Russian shadow fleet
克里姆林宫被指利用俄罗斯“影子船队”在欧洲上空进行无人机飞行活动
Mysterious drone flights that disrupted major European airports and flew over NATO member military bases hosting US nuclear weapons may be the work of a coordinated Kremlin campaign launched from Russian-linked commercial ships. 近期，欧洲各大机场因神秘无人机飞行而陷入混乱，这些无人机甚至飞越了部署有美国核武器的北约成员国军事基地。调查显示，这可能是克里姆林宫通过与俄罗斯有关联的商船所发起的一场协同行动。
That recent assessment from the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) used automatic identification system (AIS) maritime tracking data and other publicly available data to show how Russian-linked ships and “shadow fleet” vessels that transport sanctioned Russian oil were often located nearby during various drone incidents. 总部位于英国的国际战略研究所（IISS）在近期的一份评估报告中，利用自动识别系统（AIS）的海事追踪数据及其他公开信息指出，在多起无人机事件发生时，与俄罗斯有关联的船只以及运输受制裁俄罗斯石油的“影子船队”船只，往往就停泊在附近海域。
The report suggests that the drone incidents—which impacted a dozen NATO member countries and Ireland between August 2024 and February 2026—also revealed the vulnerability of European air defenses against surveillance and harassment incursions by low-cost drones. 报告认为，这些发生在2024年8月至2026年2月期间、波及十几个北约成员国及爱尔兰的无人机事件，暴露了欧洲防空系统在应对低成本无人机监视和骚扰入侵时的脆弱性。
The IISS report identified 144 drone sightings over Europe during that time period that were unlikely to involve hobbyist recreational drones or drone activity related to the war in Ukraine. IISS的报告统计了同期欧洲上空出现的144起无人机目击事件，并指出这些事件不太可能涉及业余爱好者的娱乐性无人机，也与乌克兰战争相关的无人机活动无关。
About 48 percent of the sightings took place over military bases, 26 percent happened over critical infrastructure such as ports and energy or industrial facilities, and 18 percent occurred over civilian airports. Most occurred at night or in the early morning hours before sunrise, and the drones themselves were typically described in media reports as resembling “professional” or “military-style” drones. 其中约48%的目击事件发生在军事基地上空，26%发生在港口、能源或工业设施等关键基础设施上空，18%发生在民用机场上空。大多数事件发生在夜间或清晨日出前，媒体报道中通常将这些无人机描述为“专业级”或“军用级”无人机。
The think tank’s report does not claim that all drone sightings were attributable to Russian drones or were even real. But it describes the pattern of certain drone incursions as being “consistent with the Kremlin’s effort to probe allied defenses, test civilian-military response mechanisms and normalize low-level airspace violations below the threshold of an armed attack.” 该智库的报告并未断言所有目击事件都归咎于俄罗斯无人机，甚至不排除部分事件并非真实存在。但报告指出，某些无人机入侵的模式“与克里姆林宫探测盟国防御、测试军民响应机制，以及将低于武装攻击门槛的低空领空侵犯行为常态化的企图相吻合”。
The only drone incident directly attributed to Russia came in February 2026, when the Swedish military confirmed spotting and subsequently jamming a drone that took off from the Russian signals intelligence vessel Zhigulevsk in Swedish territorial waters. The Russian drone launch took place while the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and its escort ships were nearby during a visit to Sweden. But despite being the only confirmed example, the incident showed that Russian-linked ships have the capability to launch drones at sea for potential surveillance purposes. 唯一一起直接归咎于俄罗斯的事件发生在2026年2月，当时瑞典军方证实，他们发现并干扰了一架从瑞典领海内的俄罗斯信号情报船“日古列夫斯克号”（Zhigulevsk）上起飞的无人机。这起无人机发射事件发生时，法国“戴高乐号”航空母舰及其护航舰艇正在附近访问瑞典。尽管这是唯一被证实的案例，但该事件表明，与俄罗斯有关联的船只确实具备在海上发射无人机进行潜在监视活动的能力。
The drone lineup
无人机阵容
One possible drone candidate for ship-launched operations is the Merlin-VR, a fixed-wing drone developed by Russia that can be launched by a shipboard catapult system and recovered by parachute. It has the necessary flight range to enable a number of identified drone incursion incidents, while being capable of night operations and having the ability to spend time loitering over targets, according to the IISS report. 据IISS报告，一种可能用于海上发射的无人机是俄罗斯开发的“Merlin-VR”固定翼无人机，它可以通过舰载弹射系统发射，并利用降落伞回收。该机型具备执行多起已识别入侵事件所需的航程，且能够进行夜间作业，并能在目标上空长时间盘旋。
Russian companies have also developed vertical-take-off-and-landing (VTOL) drones, including the Legioner E29 Fixed-Wing Electric Drone, that require very little deck space for takeoff and landing operations. However, the IISS report suggests that homemade or commercial drones could have also been modified for a Kremlin drone campaign over Europe to prevent easy attribution to Russia. 俄罗斯公司还开发了垂直起降（VTOL）无人机，例如“Legioner E29”固定翼电动无人机，这种机型对起降甲板空间的要求极低。然而，IISS报告指出，克里姆林宫也可能改装了自制或商用无人机来执行欧洲地区的任务，以避免被轻易追溯到俄罗斯。
A more common Russian drone model reported as being involved in the campaign is the Orlan-10, a fixed-wing drone with an operational range of 500 kilometers and battery endurance of up to 12 hours, along with maximum speeds between 90 kilometers per hour and 130 kilometers per hour. Such performance capabilities are “consistent with maritime launch from a vessel operating well beyond visual detection range of the European coastlines in question,” according to the IISS report. 报告中提到的另一种更常见的俄罗斯无人机型号是“海鹰-10”（Orlan-10），这是一款固定翼无人机，作战半径为500公里，续航时间长达12小时，最高时速在90至130公里之间。IISS报告称，这种性能表现“与在欧洲相关海岸线视觉探测范围之外的船只上进行海上发射的情况相符”。
The Orlan-10 range and payload capabilities are “consistent with stand-off collection against coastal and inland targets,” while also being able to fit within the deck space of a “mid-sized commercial vessel,” according to the IISS report. The Orlan-10 can carry payloads such as a module for spoofing signals from GPS and other global navigation satellite systems, along with a communications network monitoring module and various optical and thermal sensors. The Orlan-10’s distinctive combustion engine noise is also consistent with the accounts of people who witnessed drone incursions that took place near RAF Lakenheath in the UK between November 20 and November 26 in 2024. 据IISS报告，Orlan-10的航程和载荷能力“符合针对沿海和内陆目标的防区外情报收集需求”，同时也能容纳在“中型商船”的甲板空间内。Orlan-10可以携带多种载荷，例如用于欺骗GPS及其他全球导航卫星系统信号的模块，以及通信网络监控模块和各种光学与热成像传感器。此外，Orlan-10独特的内燃机噪音，也与2024年11月20日至26日期间目击英国莱肯希思皇家空军基地（RAF Lakenheath）附近无人机入侵事件的证人描述相吻合。
Drone sightings and lurking ships
无人机目击事件与潜伏的船只
The mystery drone incursions in November 2024 occurred at RAF Lakenheath and several other Royal Air Force stations—including RAF Fairford, RAF Feltwell, and RAF Mildenhall—that represent the home bases for thousands of US Air Force personnel and dozens of US military aircraft. As the largest US military base in the UK, RAF Lakenheath is also set to receive more than $1.6 billion in upgrades that include facilities for housing a nuclear arsenal, The Guardian reported on June 30, 2026. 2024年11月发生的神秘无人机入侵事件波及了莱肯希思皇家空军基地以及其他几个皇家空军基地，包括费尔福德（RAF Fairford）、费尔特韦尔（RAF Feltwell）和米尔登霍尔（RAF Mildenhall），这些基地驻扎着数千名美国空军人员和数十架美军飞机。据《卫报》2026年6月30日报道，作为美国在英国最大的军事基地，莱肯希思基地计划投入超过16亿美元进行升级，其中包括建设用于存放核武库的设施。
The drone incidents over the UK military bases in November 2024 occurred when the cargo ship Hav Dolphin, flagged in Antigua and Barbuda but operating with a Russian crew, was docked in the UK. The same Hav Dolphin ship was later separately investigated by German authorities after it anchored offshore near the German city of Kiel in May 2025, which coincided with drone sightings at a German submarine base at Eckernförde just northwest of Kiel on the Baltic Sea coast. 2024年11月英国军事基地上空的无人机事件发生时，悬挂安提瓜和巴布达旗帜但由俄罗斯船员操作的货船“Hav Dolphin号”正停靠在英国。该船后来在2025年5月停泊于德国基尔市附近海域时，曾受到德国当局的单独调查，而当时波罗的海沿岸基尔西北部的埃肯弗德（Eckernförde）德国潜艇基地也出现了无人机目击事件。
The incidents in the UK coincided with other drone sightings over sensitive military sites in November 2024. For example, drones repeatedly entered the airspace over Kleine-Brogel Air Base in Belgium for three consecutive nights in early November, while other drone sightings occurred over a military facility in Leopoldsburg. The Kleine-Brogel Air Base houses US nuclear weapons that could be deployed by allied aircraft under NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangement. 英国的这些事件与2024年11月其他敏感军事地点的无人机目击事件时间重合。例如，11月初，无人机连续三个晚上反复进入比利时克莱恩-布罗格尔（Kleine-Brogel）空军基地的领空，同时在利奥波德斯堡（Leopoldsburg）的一处军事设施上也发现了无人机。克莱恩-布罗格尔空军基地存放有美国核武器，这些武器可根据北约的核共享协议由盟国飞机部署。