The Nintendo Switch’s days are numbered—but what is that number?

任天堂 Switch 的日子屈指可数——但这个数字究竟是多少？

On Monday, Nintendo announced that it will stop selling the original Switch in Europe next February. That decision comes in response to European regulations that will soon require easily replaceable batteries in most consumer electronics. Rather than redesigning multiple original Switch models to comply with that regulation (as it is doing with the Switch 2), Nintendo has decided it will just stop selling the older console in the region. 周一，任天堂宣布将于明年二月停止在欧洲销售原版 Switch。这一决定是为了响应欧洲即将实施的法规，该法规要求大多数消费电子产品必须配备易于更换的电池。任天堂并没有选择重新设计多款原版 Switch 机型以符合该法规（正如其在 Switch 2 上所做的那样），而是决定直接在该地区停止销售这款旧主机。

Those new battery rules won’t affect the availability of the Switch outside of Europe, of course. But the move got us wondering how much longer Nintendo might keep selling the 9-year-old Switch now that the Switch 2 is drawing the focus of both the company and the market. An Ars analysis of Nintendo’s recent history (as documented in its annual earnings releases) shows that sales for even the company’s bestselling hardware tend to decline to zero after nine years on the market. But the data also shows the Switch being a relatively resilient market force that could sustain its commercial life well into its second decade on the market. 当然，这些新的电池法规不会影响 Switch 在欧洲以外地区的供应。但此举让我们不禁思考，随着 Switch 2 吸引了公司和市场的目光，任天堂还会继续销售这款已有 9 年历史的 Switch 多久？Ars 对任天堂近期历史（记录在其年度财报中）的分析显示，即使是该公司最畅销的硬件，在上市九年后，销量往往也会趋于零。但数据同时也表明，Switch 是一款具有相当韧性的市场产品，其商业生命周期完全有可能持续到上市后的第二个十年。

Down but not out

虽有下滑，但未出局

Sales of Switch hardware and software have, unsurprisingly, been falling consistently for years now, well before the arrival of the Switch 2. The older system peaked at nearly 29 million worldwide hardware shipments in the 2021 fiscal year (ending in March 2021), and Switch software sales peaked at over 235 million the next year. 不出所料，Switch 的硬件和软件销量在 Switch 2 到来之前就已经连续多年下滑。这款旧系统在全球硬件出货量上于 2021 财年（截至 2021 年 3 月）达到近 2900 万台的峰值，而 Switch 软件销量则在次年达到超过 2.35 亿份的峰值。

Historically, though, those peaks for Switch hardware and software sales were higher than those for every other modern Nintendo platform (save the Nintendo DS). Those peaks also came later in life for the Switch than for many other Nintendo consoles. The 3DS and Wii, for instance, saw their strongest hardware sales in their second full fiscal year on the market, while the Switch didn’t peak until its fourth fiscal year. 然而从历史角度看，Switch 硬件和软件的销售峰值高于任天堂其他所有现代平台（任天堂 DS 除外）。此外，与其他许多任天堂主机相比，Switch 达到这些峰值的时间点也更晚。例如，3DS 和 Wii 在上市后的第二个完整财年硬件销量最强，而 Switch 直到第四个财年才达到顶峰。

Following that relatively late peak, annual Switch sales fell off much more slowly than those for other Nintendo consoles. By its ninth full fiscal year (which ended in March), for instance, the Wii was barely hanging on, selling new hardware at a rate less than 1 percent of its annual peak years earlier. But the Switch was still selling at about 13 percent of its peak annual sales in its ninth full fiscal year, shipping a significant 3.8 million units. 在经历了相对较晚的峰值后，Switch 的年度销量下滑速度远比任天堂其他主机缓慢。例如，在第九个完整财年（截至 3 月）时，Wii 已几乎难以为继，其新硬件销量不到几年前年度峰值的 1%。但 Switch 在其第九个完整财年时，销量仍保持在年度峰值的 13% 左右，出货量达到了 380 万台。

Things look even better for the Switch when you look at software sales. Nintendo sold nearly 137 million pieces of Switch software in the last fiscal year, a number that’s still roughly 58 percent of its annual software sales peak. At a similar point in their lifespans, even bestselling systems like the Nintendo DS, 3DS, and Wii were all selling software at less than 5 percent of their peak rate. 从软件销量来看，Switch 的表现甚至更好。任天堂在上一财年售出了近 1.37 亿份 Switch 软件，这一数字仍约为其年度软件销售峰值的 58%。在生命周期的同一阶段，即使是任天堂 DS、3DS 和 Wii 等畅销系统，其软件销量也已不足峰值的 5%。

More than any other Nintendo platform in the 21st century, customers have shown a willingness to keep investing in the Switch well into its old age. 与 21 世纪任天堂的其他任何平台相比，消费者表现出了在 Switch 进入“高龄”阶段后依然愿意为其持续投入的意愿。

Who needs new hardware?

谁还需要新硬件？

It’s not surprising that older Nintendo hardware tends to quickly fade away once a replacement is on the market. Ars’ analysis finds that Nintendo consoles usually stay on the market for just one to four more fiscal years after their successors are sharing retail shelf space. Where the Switch’s future in the market will fall within this historic range is a bit hard to project. 旧的任天堂硬件在替代品上市后往往会迅速淡出市场，这并不令人意外。Ars 的分析发现，任天堂的主机在继任者上架后，通常只会再在市场上停留一到四个财年。Switch 未来的市场表现将处于这一历史区间的哪个位置，目前还很难预测。

On the one hand, the Switch 2 sold nearly 20 million units in its first (partial) fiscal year, heavily outpacing the nearly 4 million full-year sales for the Switch in the 2026 fiscal year. This suggests a lot of pent-up demand for an option more powerful than the original Switch, and a large portion of the market that’s ready to upgrade right away. 一方面，Switch 2 在其第一个（部分）财年售出了近 2000 万台，远远超过了 Switch 在 2026 财年全年近 400 万台的销量。这表明市场对性能强于原版 Switch 的设备存在大量积压需求，且很大一部分市场已经准备好立即升级。