If Microsoft sold off Xbox, who would even buy it?
If Microsoft sold off Xbox, who would even buy it?
如果微软出售 Xbox，谁会买呢？
There might not be many takers, though Microsoft could sell it in parts. 虽然微软可能会将其拆分出售，但潜在的买家或许并不多。
This week, Microsoft took a huge ax to its Xbox business. The company announced that it would be laying off 1,600 workers now, 1,600 more over the next fiscal year, and that it would be shedding four studios. Xbox CEO Asha Sharma hasn’t been shy about why she’s making such dramatic cuts, saying in a memo that the business is “not healthy.” Speaking to Fortune, she said that “we simply spread ourselves too thin.” 本周，微软对旗下的 Xbox 业务进行了大刀阔斧的裁减。公司宣布将立即裁员 1,600 人，并在下一个财年再裁员 1,600 人，同时还将关闭四家工作室。Xbox 首席执行官 Asha Sharma 对做出如此剧烈调整的原因直言不讳，她在备忘录中称该业务“不健康”。在接受《财富》杂志采访时，她表示：“我们确实摊子铺得太开了。”
Given the scale of the changes and Xbox’s currently vague strategy of focusing only on big games, it’s unclear just what the future of the platform is. As Microsoft invests much of its resources into everything AI, a struggling consumer business with a difficult future doesn’t necessarily seem like a good fit for the company. Which opens up the possibility that Microsoft could be preparing to eventually exit the gaming business altogether by selling off Xbox. This, in turn, raises an even bigger question: Who could possibly buy Xbox? 鉴于此次调整的规模，以及 Xbox 目前仅专注于大型游戏这一模糊的战略，该平台的未来走向尚不明朗。随着微软将大部分资源投入到人工智能领域，一个陷入困境且前景堪忧的消费业务似乎不再适合公司。这引发了一种可能性：微软可能正准备通过出售 Xbox 来彻底退出游戏业务。而这又引出了一个更大的问题：谁会买下 Xbox 呢？
While nothing has been confirmed, Microsoft’s recent moves make selling off the brand seem like a possible option, as New York University professor Joost van Dreunen tells The Verge. “A wholesale divestiture of Xbox remains on the table, and it looks likelier given Xbox’s struggles with rising hardware costs and Microsoft’s focus on AI and infrastructure,” he explains. “It’s never been clear what role Xbox plays in Microsoft’s flywheel.” But a full sale is the “less likely path,” van Dreunen says. Few buyers, even giants like Netflix, Amazon, Tencent, or a sovereign wealth fund that could theoretically afford the business, would want “an entire interactive-entertainment conglomerate running north of $23 billion in annual revenue.” 尽管目前尚未有定论，但正如纽约大学教授 Joost van Dreunen 对 The Verge 所言，微软近期的举动使得出售该品牌成为一种可能。“全面剥离 Xbox 仍然是一个选项，考虑到 Xbox 在硬件成本上升方面的困境，以及微软对人工智能和基础设施的关注，这种可能性似乎更大了，”他解释道，“Xbox 在微软的业务飞轮中究竟扮演什么角色，一直都不明确。”但 van Dreunen 认为，整体出售是“可能性较低的路径”。很少有买家——即使是像 Netflix、亚马逊、腾讯或主权财富基金这样理论上买得起的巨头——会想要“一个年收入超过 230 亿美元的庞大互动娱乐集团”。
Despite the cuts, Microsoft still has a lot under the Xbox umbrella. It operates a hardware business that sells (increasingly expensive) Xbox Series X / S consoles, and one of the first things Sharma did was tease Xbox’s next-generation console, codenamed Project Helix. It still operates a massive roster of game developers: Halo Studios, Bethesda Game Studios, Mojang Studios, Call of Duty studios like Infinity Ward and Treyarch, The Coalition, Playground Games, Blizzard Entertainment, King, and Rare. 尽管进行了裁减，微软在 Xbox 旗下仍拥有大量资产。它运营着销售（价格日益昂贵的）Xbox Series X/S 主机的硬件业务，而 Sharma 上任后的首要举措之一就是预告了代号为“Project Helix”的 Xbox 下一代主机。它依然拥有庞大的游戏开发阵容：Halo Studios、Bethesda Game Studios、Mojang Studios、Infinity Ward 和 Treyarch 等《使命召唤》工作室、The Coalition、Playground Games、暴雪娱乐、King 以及 Rare。
Yoshio Osaki, president and CEO of market research firm IDG Intelligence, tells The Verge that “I think all options are on the table, considering the drastic measures already put in place to try and restructure the business at both a cyclical and structural level.” Osaki notes that in “earlier years,” it may have been possible for a company like Tencent to explore a wholesale purchase, “since the Western market, especially console, has been more elusive for them.” 市场研究公司 IDG Intelligence 的总裁兼首席执行官 Yoshio Osaki 对 The Verge 表示：“考虑到目前为在周期性和结构性层面重组业务所采取的剧烈措施，我认为所有选项都在考虑范围内。”Osaki 指出，在“早些年”，像腾讯这样的公司或许会考虑整体收购，“因为西方市场，尤其是主机市场，对他们来说一直难以攻克。”
But nowadays, Tencent seems to be stepping back from the space, as it’s reportedly looking to negotiate exits from many game investments in Japan. That move follows other reported pullbacks from groups that had been known for sweeping investments in games, including Chinese internet giant NetEase and the Saudi government-funded Savvy Games Group. As for another large tech company taking Xbox over, that seems unlikely; Osaki points to Meta seemingly divesting out of games following its recent metaverse layoffs and VR studio closures, while Amazon is focused more on its Luna cloud gaming service and using games to highlight other properties it’s building around, like James Bond and Tomb Raider. 但如今，腾讯似乎正在从该领域撤退，据报道，该公司正寻求退出其在日本的多项游戏投资。在此之前，其他以大规模游戏投资著称的集团也传出了撤资消息，包括中国互联网巨头网易和沙特政府资助的 Savvy Games Group。至于其他大型科技公司接手 Xbox，可能性也不大；Osaki 指出，Meta 在近期的元宇宙裁员和 VR 工作室关闭后，似乎也在剥离游戏业务；而亚马逊则更专注于其 Luna 云游戏服务，并利用游戏来推广其围绕《詹姆斯·邦德》和《古墓丽影》等 IP 构建的其他资产。
Entertainment companies like Netflix and Disney could also be potential buyers, but their gaming strategies have generally “veered away” from major mergers and acquisitions in recent years, Osaki notes. Netflix, for example, has had a presence in games for years, but it has let go of many prestige indie titles in its mobile catalog and a AAA studio that never released a game in favor of TV games players can control with a smartphone. While some of Xbox’s more approachable fare, like Candy Crush or Minecraft, could fit at Netflix, it seems unlikely that something like Halo or The Elder Scrolls would translate well to a TV party game. Osaki 指出，Netflix 和迪士尼等娱乐公司也可能是潜在买家，但近年来它们的战略通常“避开”了大型并购。例如，Netflix 多年来一直涉足游戏领域，但它放弃了移动端目录中的许多精品独立游戏，以及一家从未发布过游戏的大型 3A 工作室，转而专注于可以用智能手机控制的电视游戏。虽然 Xbox 中一些更易于上手的作品（如《糖果传奇》或《我的世界》）可能适合 Netflix，但像《光环》或《上古卷轴》这样的作品似乎很难转化为电视派对游戏。
We don’t know what Microsoft’s asking price for Xbox would be. But likely part of the reason it would have few potential suitors is that, if we look at other recent gaming megadeals, the price would be prohibitively high. EA’s take-private deal values the company at $55 billion. Microsoft acquired Activision Blizzard in a $68.7 billion deal. The entirety of Xbox, inclusive of things like its franchises, studios, and hardware business, would cost significantly more. 我们不知道微软对 Xbox 的要价会是多少。但它潜在买家寥寥的原因之一，很可能是参考近期其他大型游戏交易后，其价格会高得令人望而却步。EA 的私有化交易对公司的估值为 550 亿美元。微软收购动视暴雪的交易金额为 687 亿美元。包含其特许经营权、工作室和硬件业务在内的整个 Xbox 部门，成本将远高于此。
Van Dreunen says that the more likely scenario is that big players might go after “specific pieces” of the Xbox business. Osaki similarly notes that it’s possible that “individual studios, IPs, and teams are sold or spun off piecemeal.” Microsoft has already shown that it’s willing to do that; it allowed Compulsion Games and Double Fine Productions to go indie, while Ninja Theory and Undead Labs have been sold to unspecified buyers. Van Dreunen 表示，更可能的情况是大型玩家会寻求收购 Xbox 业务的“特定部分”。Osaki 也同样指出，有可能“各个工作室、IP 和团队会被零散地出售或分拆”。微软已经表现出愿意这样做；它允许 Compulsion Games 和 Double Fine Productions 独立运营，而 Ninja Theory 和 Undead Labs 则被出售给了未公开的买家。