Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom

Nvidia、CoreWeave 与 Nebius：深入剖析 GPU 热潮背后的循环融资

Neoclouds are seeing massive hyperscaler demand as companies race to scale AI infrastructure, resulting in rapid revenue and backlog growth. Leaders like CoreWeave and Nebius enable this through access to the latest Nvidia GPU’s while also optimizing compute utilization. However, the bearish argument behind hyperscaler demand lies in their desire to offload their capex spending and shift costs to the operating expense line. CoreWeave’s and Nebius’ growth is far from profitable, as they seek to capture AI demand with limited cash flow and soaring debt loads in an increasingly tough macro backdrop. Circular financing, demonstrated by Nvidia’s investments and financial backstopping, is another key item to monitor closely.

随着各家公司竞相扩展人工智能基础设施，新兴云服务商（Neoclouds）正面临来自超大规模云厂商（Hyperscalers）的巨大需求，这带来了营收和订单储备的快速增长。CoreWeave 和 Nebius 等行业领军者通过提供最新的 Nvidia GPU 并优化计算利用率，满足了这一需求。然而，看空者认为，超大规模云厂商之所以产生这种需求，是因为他们希望减轻资本支出（Capex）压力，并将成本转移至运营支出（Opex）。CoreWeave 和 Nebius 的增长远未实现盈利，因为在日益严峻的宏观经济背景下，他们试图在现金流有限且债务负担沉重的情况下抢占 AI 市场。由 Nvidia 的投资和财务担保所体现的“循环融资”模式，是另一个需要密切关注的关键点。

Neoclouds are one of the more hotly debated AI business models, with CoreWeave and Nebius being the two most widely recognized names. These companies have seen their sales, backlog, and share prices soar, differentiating themselves through quick access to the latest GPU compute and GPU utilization advantages that allow hyperscalers to rapidly add efficient compute capacity. Notably, CoreWeave and Nebius have each secured 3.5 GWs of contracted power capacity; while these power footprints are key considering power is a hindrance to data center expansion, the vast majority of their contracted power capacity has yet to come online. CoreWeave is targeting 1.7 GW of active power by the end of 2026, while Nebius is targeting 800 MW to 1 GW of connected power.

新兴云服务商是目前最具争议的 AI 商业模式之一，其中 CoreWeave 和 Nebius 是最广为人知的两家公司。这些公司的销售额、订单储备和股价均大幅飙升。它们的差异化优势在于能够快速获取最新的 GPU 计算资源，并具备 GPU 利用率优势，从而帮助超大规模云厂商迅速增加高效的计算能力。值得注意的是，CoreWeave 和 Nebius 各自锁定了 3.5 吉瓦（GW）的电力供应合同；考虑到电力供应是数据中心扩张的瓶颈，这些电力储备至关重要，但绝大部分合同电力尚未投入使用。CoreWeave 的目标是在 2026 年底前实现 1.7 吉瓦的活跃电力，而 Nebius 的目标是实现 800 兆瓦（MW）至 1 吉瓦的并网电力。

In turn, they are quickly working to convert their contracted power to active power, and thus convert large backlogs into revenue. Yet doing so is extremely expensive, and neoclouds do not have the same cash nor operating cash flow profiles of Big Tech. This is leading neoclouds to employ unique and circular financing structures, raising some red flags. In this analysis, I dive into the two public neoclouds that are riding Nvidia equity, hyperscaler contracts, and GPU-backed debt to fund the buildout, and what it means for the durability of the surge.

因此，他们正致力于将合同电力转化为实际电力，从而将庞大的订单储备转化为营收。然而，这一过程成本极其高昂，且新兴云服务商并不具备大型科技公司那样的现金储备或运营现金流水平。这导致新兴云服务商采用了独特的循环融资结构，引发了一些警示信号。在本文分析中，我将深入探讨这两家上市的新兴云服务商，它们正利用 Nvidia 的股权、超大规模云厂商的合同以及以 GPU 为抵押的债务来资助基础设施建设，并分析这对这波增长浪潮的持久性意味着什么。

Microsoft and Meta’s $120B+ Bet on Neoclouds: The size of hyperscaler-neocloud partnerships compared to their current revenue is astounding. Microsoft has struck the most neocloud deals, with approximately $60 billion worth of commitments between CoreWeave, Nebius, and other private players such as Nscale. Meanwhile, Meta has committed $35.2 billion to CoreWeave in total after its recent $21 billion expansion, and an up to $27 billion deal with Nebius for a total commitment of up to $62.2 billion. Along with Meta, OpenAI is one of CoreWeave’s two largest customers, while CoreWeave also has a multi-year compute agreement with Anthropic. Alone, Microsoft and Meta’s total commitments extend up to $122.2 billion – for perspective, that is ~90% of the TTM revenue of AWS being allocated towards neoclouds over long-term capacity deals. When factoring in hyperscaler-backed deals from OpenAI and Anthropic (although exact deal value is unknown),

微软与 Meta 在新兴云服务商身上投入超 1200 亿美元：超大规模云厂商与新兴云服务商之间的合作规模与其当前营收相比令人震惊。微软达成的合作最多，对 CoreWeave、Nebius 以及 Nscale 等其他私营企业的承诺金额约为 600 亿美元。与此同时，Meta 在近期追加 210 亿美元投资后，对 CoreWeave 的总承诺额达到 352 亿美元，并与 Nebius 达成了最高 270 亿美元的协议，总承诺额高达 622 亿美元。除 Meta 外，OpenAI 也是 CoreWeave 的两大客户之一，同时 CoreWeave 还与 Anthropic 签署了多年期计算协议。仅微软和 Meta 的总承诺额就高达 1222 亿美元——作为参考，这相当于 AWS 过去十二个月（TTM）营收的约 90%，通过长期产能协议分配给了新兴云服务商。如果算上 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 背后由超大规模云厂商支持的交易（尽管具体交易金额未知），……