El Niño Is Already Wreaking Havoc on Pacific Fisheries

厄尔尼诺现象已在太平洋渔业造成严重破坏

We’re not even one month into “super” El Niño, the natural Pacific weather pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, and fisheries around the world are already getting scrambled. “超级”厄尔尼诺现象——一种以海面温度高于平均水平为特征的太平洋自然天气模式——才刚刚开始不到一个月，全球各地的渔业就已经陷入了混乱。

In Peru, government officials have effectively canceled the fishing season for anchovies, one of the country’s most important exports and a leading source of fish oil and animal feed globally. The Indian government is preparing for a season of smaller, less plentiful Indian mackerel. Meanwhile, in Southern California, recreational and commercial fishers have reported some of the most successful months of tuna fishing they’ve ever seen. 在秘鲁，政府官员实际上已经取消了鳀鱼的捕捞季，这是该国最重要的出口产品之一，也是全球鱼油和动物饲料的主要来源。印度政府正准备迎接一个产量更少、规模更小的印度鲭鱼捕捞季。与此同时，在南加州，休闲和商业渔民报告称，他们经历了有史以来金枪鱼捕捞最成功的几个月。

The divergent situations show how El Niño can create winners and losers across the fishing industry, decimating some species while making others easier to catch. For fishers, the result is instability, with many forced to consider seasonal diversification. And consumers can expect fluctuations in the price of key fish products. 这种截然不同的情况表明，厄尔尼诺现象如何在渔业中制造赢家和输家，在使某些物种数量锐减的同时，却让其他物种更容易被捕获。对于渔民来说，结果是动荡不安，许多人被迫考虑季节性多元化经营。消费者则需要预见关键鱼类产品价格的波动。

“People are worried,” said Juan Carlos Sueiro, an economist and fisheries director for the nonprofit Oceana Peru. As climate change is expected to drive more frequent, stronger El Niños, “our vulnerability is increasing.” 非营利组织“秘鲁海洋”（Oceana Peru）的经济学家兼渔业主任胡安·卡洛斯·苏埃罗（Juan Carlos Sueiro）表示：“人们感到担忧。”随着气候变化预计将导致厄尔尼诺现象变得更加频繁和强烈，“我们的脆弱性正在增加。”

El Niño is a weather phenomenon that happens every two to seven years in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It was named by Peruvian fishers who, hundreds of years ago, noticed periodic fluctuations in their catches, with huge declines occurring every few years around Christmas. They called it El Niño, after the baby Jesus. 厄尔尼诺是一种每两到七年发生在热带太平洋的天气现象。它是由数百年前的秘鲁渔民命名的，他们注意到捕获量存在周期性波动，每隔几年圣诞节前后就会出现大幅下降。他们以圣婴（Baby Jesus）的名字将其命名为“厄尔尼诺”（El Niño）。

The reason it has such disparate impacts on different fisheries has to do with the way it moves around ocean water. 它之所以对不同的渔业产生如此迥异的影响，与它改变海水运动方式有关。

Under normal conditions, trade winds blowing west along the equator move warm water from South America toward Asia. This causes cold, nutrient-dense water to rise up from the depths, a process known as “upwelling” that encourages the growth of tiny algae near the ocean’s surface. During an El Niño, however, weakening trade winds slow or even stop this upwelling. Less algae at the surface means species that depend on it, like anchovies, are forced to search for grub in deeper waters. Not only does this make the fish harder to catch, it can also stress and shrink their populations. 在正常情况下，沿赤道向西吹的信风会将温暖的海水从南美洲推向亚洲。这导致寒冷且富含营养的海水从深处上升，这一过程被称为“上升流”，它促进了海面附近微小藻类的生长。然而，在厄尔尼诺现象期间，减弱的信风会减缓甚至停止这种上升流。海面藻类减少意味着依赖藻类的物种（如鳀鱼）被迫到更深的水域寻找食物。这不仅使鱼类更难捕获，还会给它们的种群带来压力并导致数量萎缩。

At the same time, those ocean dynamics can boost other fisheries. El Niño often sees warm-water species like the skipjack tuna straying toward coastal waters of the Americas, where temperatures would normally be too frigid for them. Nearer to the shore, these species become easier to catch. 与此同时，这些海洋动力学变化可以促进其他渔业的发展。厄尔尼诺现象常使鲣鱼等暖水物种游向美洲沿海水域，而这些地方的水温通常对它们来说过于寒冷。在靠近岸边的地方，这些物种变得更容易捕获。

Both of these dynamics affect Peru, where El Niños of the past have both wiped out the country’s anchoveta fishery—the largest single-species fishery in the world—and increased the availability of shrimp, scallops, dolphinfish, and tuna. This spring and summer, coastal El Niño conditions have already strained the country’s anchovies, prompting the government to issue an indefinite ban on fishing for them during the April-to-July season so their populations don’t fall even further. Humberto Speziani, a Peruvian industrial fishing adviser and former director of the International Marine Ingredients Organization, said vessels equipped with sonar technology have been locating anchovies more than 100 meters below the sea surface. Even if commercial fishers were trying to catch those anchovies, they likely couldn’t—that’s twice the depth that’s reachable using normal purse seine fishing nets. 这两种动力学变化都影响着秘鲁。过去的厄尔尼诺现象既摧毁了该国的鳀鱼渔业（世界上规模最大的单一物种渔业），也增加了虾、扇贝、鲯鳅和金枪鱼的产量。今年春夏，沿海的厄尔尼诺状况已经使该国的鳀鱼资源紧张，促使政府发布了4月至7月期间无限期禁止捕捞鳀鱼的禁令，以防止其种群数量进一步下降。秘鲁工业捕鱼顾问、国际海洋成分组织前主任翁贝托·斯佩齐亚尼（Humberto Speziani）表示，配备声纳技术的船只已在海面下100多米处发现了鳀鱼。即使商业渔民试图捕捞这些鳀鱼，他们也很可能无法做到——这已经是普通围网捕鱼所能触及深度的两倍。

Seafood prices are liable to change, too, due to El Niño’s milder impacts outside the Pacific Ocean. Wild salmon, for example, can get so skinny from a lack of food during El Niño that they’re dubbed “snakes;” their decline in North American coastal waters can lead to higher ex-vessel prices—that fishers receive at the dock—that are then passed down to retail and restaurant customers. And in local Peruvian markets, prices for jack mackerel and corvina have already reportedly doubled, prompting families to buy more chicken instead. Sueiro said the opposite may happen with species like shrimp, whose populations have boomed during past El Niños. 由于厄尔尼诺现象在太平洋以外地区的影响较轻，海鲜价格也可能发生变化。例如，野生鲑鱼在厄尔尼诺期间因食物匮乏而变得非常瘦弱，被称为“蛇”；它们在北美沿海水域的减少可能导致更高的码头收购价（渔民在码头收到的价格），这些成本随后会转嫁给零售和餐厅客户。据报道，在秘鲁当地市场，竹荚鱼和石首鱼的价格已经翻了一番，促使家庭转而购买更多的鸡肉。苏埃罗表示，虾类等物种的情况可能恰恰相反，因为在过去的厄尔尼诺现象中，它们的种群数量反而激增。

One demographic that is likely to benefit from El Niño is Southern California fishers, who call the weather phenomenon a “special treat” due to higher-than-normal catches of bluefin tuna, swordfish, blue marlin, and other species that usually stay closer to the equator. Even before El Niño was officially declared in June, SoCal’s recreational anglers and commercial fishers were celebrating “unprecedented” bluefin tuna yields; one fishing tracker suggests that nearly 300,000 more of the fish were caught off the California coast during the first half of the year, compared to the same period last year. 南加州的渔民很可能是厄尔尼诺现象的受益者，他们称这种天气现象为“特别款待”，因为蓝鳍金枪鱼、剑鱼、蓝枪鱼以及其他通常靠近赤道活动的物种捕获量高于正常水平。甚至在6月正式宣布厄尔尼诺现象之前，南加州的休闲垂钓者和商业渔民就已经在庆祝“前所未有”的蓝鳍金枪鱼产量；一个捕鱼追踪数据显示，与去年同期相比，今年上半年加州海岸捕获的蓝鳍金枪鱼数量增加了近30万条。

“We’ve got yellowfin, we’ve got bluefin, yellowtail, and dorado. What else can you ask for?” the manager of one San Diego-based sportsfishing company said on YouTube at the end of April. “It’s not even May, and fishing’s been red-hot.” “我们有黄鳍金枪鱼、蓝鳍金枪鱼、黄尾鱼和鲯鳅。你还能要求什么呢？”一家位于圣地亚哥的运动捕鱼公司经理在4月底的YouTube视频中说道。“还没到5月，捕鱼就已经火爆异常了。”

Although artisanal fishers in South America often catch more of these species, too, they’re unlikely to fully offset economic losses wrought by El Niño. For one, high winds associated with the weather phenomenon can frustrate shipping vessels, making it harder to reel in additional species. And heavy rainfall can damage onshore infrastructure needed to process marine animals and take them to market. 尽管南美洲的手工渔民通常也能捕获更多这些物种，但他们不太可能完全抵消厄尔尼诺现象带来的经济损失。首先，与该天气现象相关的大风会阻碍运输船只，使捕获更多物种变得更加困难。此外，强降雨可能会损坏加工海洋动物并将其运往市场所需的岸上基础设施。

El Niño-related shifts in fish migration can impact more than fishing economies. High ocean temperatures associated with the weather phenomenon can decimate coral reefs and the species that call them home. They can also cause kelp to deteriorate faster, reducing the amount of underwater oxygen available to maintain healthy ecosystems. And there’s been some research to suggest that shifting fish populations can escalate geopolitical conflict, as vessels stray into other countries’ economic zones. 与厄尔尼诺相关的鱼类迁徙变化所影响的不仅仅是渔业经济。与该天气现象相关的高海温会摧毁珊瑚礁及其栖息物种。它们还会导致海带加速退化，减少维持健康生态系统所需的水下氧气量。此外，一些研究表明，鱼类种群的迁移可能会加剧地缘政治冲突，因为船只可能会误入其他国家的经济区。

Arnaud Bertrand, a senior scientist at the French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development, also worries about the Humboldt squid. These animals are an import… 法国国家可持续发展研究所的高级科学家阿诺·贝特朗（Arnaud Bertrand）也对洪堡鱿鱼感到担忧。这些动物是进口……