Apple and Samsung benefit as memory shortage pushes smartphone shipments to historic lows

内存短缺导致智能手机出货量跌至历史低点，苹果与三星从中受益

Smartphone shipments started to plateau a few years back, ending the days of guaranteed double-digit growth for any company that wanted to make phones. Fewer smartphone manufacturers exist today, and they’re facing new pressure in the age of AI. A new report claims that smartphone shipments cratered 11 percent in the last quarter. Some are weathering the storm better than others, though. 几年前，智能手机出货量开始趋于平稳，任何想制造手机的公司都能获得两位数增长保证的时代已经结束。如今，智能手机制造商的数量有所减少，且在人工智能时代面临着新的压力。一份最新报告称，上季度智能手机出货量暴跌了 11%。不过，有些厂商比其他厂商更能抵御这场风暴。

According to Counterpoint, this substantial drop brings smartphone shipments to their lowest second-quarter level since 2013. Analysts place the blame for this drop squarely on the increasing price of DRAM and NAND chips. Manufacturers have largely shifted to supporting the AI computing boom, which leaves fewer components for consumer devices like smartphones and PCs. As prices climb higher, fewer people are interested in buying new phones. 根据 Counterpoint 的数据，这一大幅下滑使智能手机出货量降至 2013 年以来的第二季度最低水平。分析师将此次下滑直接归咎于 DRAM 和 NAND 芯片价格的上涨。制造商已大规模转向支持人工智能计算热潮，这导致智能手机和个人电脑等消费类设备的零部件供应减少。随着价格攀升，购买新手机的人数也在减少。

This problem has been particularly vexing for people who are happy to purchase budget devices. A recent report from market research firm Omdia noted that higher memory costs are particularly bad for phones priced at $500 or less. In these segments, memory can now easily account for half of the total manufacturing cost. These devices have seen quicker and larger price increases compared to flagship devices, for which memory is now more than a quarter of the cost. That’s a significant increase in the past year, but there’s still more profit to be had at the high end. 对于乐于购买预算型设备的用户来说，这个问题尤为令人烦恼。市场研究公司 Omdia 最近的一份报告指出，内存成本的上升对售价在 500 美元及以下的手机影响尤为严重。在这些细分市场中，内存成本现在很容易占到总制造成本的一半。与旗舰设备相比，这些设备的涨价速度更快、幅度更大，而旗舰设备的内存成本目前仅占总成本的四分之一以上。虽然这在过去一年中是一个显著的增长，但高端市场仍有更多的利润空间。

Samsung back at the top

三星重回榜首

Most of the top five smartphone makers have seen sales decrease in 2026. Based on Counterpoint’s analysis, that list currently includes Samsung, Apple, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi. While Apple and Samsung shipments have held up, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi are all down in Q2 2026. Apple saw shipments grow by 3 percent last quarter—it managed to keep smartphone prices stable for its current generation as most OEMs resorted to raising prices. That may not hold true when it releases new iPhones in the coming months. 2026 年，大多数前五大智能手机制造商的销量均出现下滑。根据 Counterpoint 的分析，目前的名单包括三星、苹果、OPPO、vivo 和小米。虽然苹果和三星的出货量保持稳定，但 OPPO、vivo 和小米在 2026 年第二季度的出货量均有所下降。苹果上季度的出货量增长了 3%——在大多数原始设备制造商（OEM）不得不提高价格的情况下，苹果成功保持了当前一代智能手机价格的稳定。不过，当苹果在未来几个月发布新款 iPhone 时，这种情况可能无法持续。

Samsung’s shipments were up as well, once again making it the largest global smartphone OEM by shipments, at 24 percent. Samsung’s focus on flagship phones has apparently helped it even as it raised prices on budget devices. The Galaxy S26 series, and particularly the Ultra variant, have sold better than last year’s models in spite of higher prices. Samsung is also strong in markets like India and the Middle East where lower prices and aggressive promotions have buoyed sales. 三星的出货量也有所增长，以 24% 的市场份额再次成为全球最大的智能手机 OEM。显然，三星对旗舰手机的专注使其受益匪浅，即使它提高了预算型设备的价格。尽管价格更高，但 Galaxy S26 系列（尤其是 Ultra 版本）的销量仍好于去年的机型。三星在印度和中东等市场也表现强劲，较低的价格和积极的促销活动支撑了其销量。

For what it’s worth, Omdia is reporting a smaller 4 percent drop for Q2 smartphone shipments, but it, too, shows Samsung and Apple sustaining sales as other OEMs fall. In its report, Omdia puts Samsung at 22 percent of all smartphone shipments, with Apple just behind at 20 percent. Like other OEMs, Samsung has boosted prices on its mid-range and budget offerings, which has depressed sales. Budget-conscious buyers are just holding onto their current devices longer, taking advantage of a recent shift toward longer update support. Samsung and Google, for example, now support phones for seven years. That’s on par with Apple’s support window. 值得一提的是，Omdia 报告称第二季度智能手机出货量仅小幅下降 4%，但该报告同样显示，在其他 OEM 厂商销量下滑的情况下，三星和苹果的销量依然保持稳定。Omdia 在报告中指出，三星占全球智能手机出货量的 22%，苹果紧随其后，占 20%。与其他 OEM 厂商一样，三星提高了中端和预算型产品的价格，这抑制了销量。精打细算的买家只是延长了现有设备的使用时间，并利用了近期向更长更新支持周期的转变。例如，三星和谷歌现在为手机提供七年的支持，这与苹果的支持周期相当。

Speaking of Google, the company’s Pixel phones don’t get it anywhere close to the top five list, but its shipments are still growing at an impressive rate. Counterpoint says Google saw a 16 percent year-over-year increase in Q2 thanks to strong Pixel 10 sales. Increasingly, it looks like AI hysteria is going to be a watershed moment for smartphone makers. Every analysis (including Counterpoint’s) expects the component shortage to continue at least into next year. Even if AI is a bubble, smartphone makers will probably spend the next year eliminating budget phones with low margins and increasing prices on the models that remain. This will encourage people to treat smartphones more like appliances, purchased less often and with the expectation of lengthy support. 说到谷歌，其 Pixel 手机虽然远未进入前五名，但出货量仍以惊人的速度增长。Counterpoint 表示，得益于 Pixel 10 的强劲销售，谷歌第二季度的出货量同比增长了 16%。看起来，人工智能热潮正日益成为智能手机制造商的分水岭。每一项分析（包括 Counterpoint 的分析）都预计零部件短缺至少会持续到明年。即使人工智能是一个泡沫，智能手机制造商也可能会在明年淘汰利润率低的预算型手机，并提高剩余机型的价格。这将促使人们将智能手机更多地视为一种耐用家电，购买频率降低，并期望获得更长久的支持。