A “disaster waiting to happen”? Industry officials worry about Crew Dragon availability.

“一场即将发生的灾难”？业内人士担忧“龙飞船”的可用性。

NASA breathed a deep sigh of relief six years ago when SpaceX launched two astronauts, Doug Hurley and Bob Behnken, on a successful mission to the International Space Station. With the safe landing of Crew Dragon, the US space agency broke a nearly decade-long gap in its ability to put humans into orbit. 六年前，当 SpaceX 成功将两名宇航员道格·赫尔利（Doug Hurley）和鲍勃·本肯（Bob Behnken）送往国际空间站时，NASA 长舒了一口气。随着“载人龙飞船”（Crew Dragon）的安全着陆，这家美国航天机构打破了近十年来无法将人类送入轨道的尴尬局面。

Through its Commercial Crew program and multibillion-dollar contracts awarded in 2014, NASA had hoped to foster two providers of low-Earth orbit transportation, SpaceX and Boeing. However, Boeing has yet to complete a successful crewed test flight—a perilous 2024 test flight by Boeing’s Starliner was later declared a Type A mishap—and probably won’t fly another crewed mission before 2028. 通过 2014 年启动的“商业载人航天计划”及数十亿美元的合同，NASA 原本希望培育出 SpaceX 和波音两家近地轨道运输服务商。然而，波音至今尚未完成一次成功的载人试飞——其“星际客机”（Starliner）在 2024 年的一次危险试飞后被定性为 A 类事故——且在 2028 年之前恐怕无法再进行载人飞行任务。

With the International Space Station slated for retirement in the early 2030s, NASA is partnering with several US companies to develop private space stations. As part of that effort, the private companies will have to work with NASA to determine how they will transport astronauts to and from their space stations, some of which could launch as soon as 2030. And it turns out this is more difficult than it sounds. 随着国际空间站计划在 2030 年代初退役，NASA 正与多家美国公司合作开发私人空间站。作为该计划的一部分，这些私营公司必须与 NASA 合作，确定如何将宇航员往返于空间站，其中一些空间站最早可能在 2030 年发射。事实证明，这比听起来要困难得多。

Crew Dragon the default, but…

“龙飞船”是默认选择，但……

The key players in the effort to build private space stations are Axiom Space, Vast Space, Voyager, Blue Origin, and possibly SpaceX. Of these companies, Axiom Space has previously worked with SpaceX to fly private astronauts on Crew Dragon to the space station, and Vast Space will use Dragon to support its early space stations. SpaceX is likely planning to use its Starship vehicle as a potential space station, if it decides to enter the NASA competition. 参与建造私人空间站的关键参与者包括 Axiom Space、Vast Space、Voyager、蓝色起源（Blue Origin），以及可能的 SpaceX。在这些公司中，Axiom Space 此前曾与 SpaceX 合作，利用“龙飞船”将私人宇航员送往空间站；Vast Space 也将使用“龙飞船”来支持其早期的空间站项目。如果 SpaceX 决定参与 NASA 的竞争，它很可能会计划将其“星舰”（Starship）作为潜在的空间站使用。

Crew Dragon would seem to be the obvious answer for commercial space stations in the 2030s, but there are some questions. The first of these is availability. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell has said the company will fly Crew Dragon and the Falcon 9 rocket for a finite number of years, possibly for less than a decade as the company transitions its launches to Starship. 对于 2030 年代的商业空间站而言，“龙飞船”似乎是显而易见的答案，但其中存在一些疑问。首先就是可用性问题。SpaceX 总裁格温·肖特韦尔（Gwynne Shotwell）曾表示，随着公司将发射任务转向“星舰”，公司只会再运营“龙飞船”和“猎鹰 9 号”火箭有限的几年，可能不到十年。

Could humans launch on Starship? Eventually, but this seems unlikely before the mid-2030s, and docking the large Starships to smaller space stations would be challenging. NASA, obviously, will want Crew Dragon to fly longer, and this will have some influence. But gradually pretty much all of SpaceX’s launch activity, beginning with Starlink satellites but eventually other commercial satellites, will migrate to Starship. 人类能乘坐“星舰”发射吗？最终可以，但在 2030 年代中期之前似乎不太可能，而且将巨大的“星舰”与较小的空间站对接也将充满挑战。显然，NASA 希望“龙飞船”能服役更久，这会产生一定影响。但 SpaceX 的发射活动将逐渐全面转向“星舰”，从“星链”卫星开始，最终涵盖其他商业卫星。

This would leave SpaceX in the position of keeping a Falcon 9 production line open just to support Crew Dragon, which would certainly increase the price. Although Crew Dragon pricing is a closely held secret, multiple sources say costs have already risen in recent years for the crewed launch vehicle. 这将使 SpaceX 面临一种局面：为了支持“龙飞船”而不得不维持“猎鹰 9 号”的生产线，这无疑会推高价格。尽管“龙飞船”的定价是严格保密的，但多个消息来源称，近年来该载人运载工具的成本已经上涨。

After speaking to officials at several private space station companies, it is clear these concerns are front of mind. The bulk of expenses in operating a space station will come not from the facility itself, but safely transporting crew and cargo to the facilities. The providers do not have certainty that Crew Dragon will be available for the long haul, and they also have pricing concerns due to Falcon 9 availability, as well as lack of competition. “It’s a disaster waiting to happen,” one industry source told Ars about Crew Dragon availability in the 2030s. 在与几家私人空间站公司的高管交谈后，很明显这些担忧已成为他们的心头大患。运营空间站的大部分开支并非来自设施本身，而是将人员和货物安全运送到设施的成本。供应商们无法确定“龙飞船”能否长期提供服务，同时由于“猎鹰 9 号”的可用性以及缺乏竞争，他们也对价格感到担忧。“这是一场即将发生的灾难，”一位业内人士在谈到 2030 年代“龙飞船”的可用性时对 Ars 说道。

What are some other options?

还有其他选择吗？

The alternatives are not ideal. Boeing’s Starliner vehicle may eventually become operational, but it is not clear how committed the large aerospace company is to the program. Boeing began shopping some of its space assets, including Starliner, a year and a half ago. No sale has been closed, and one person told Ars that it is because Boeing has been asking too high a price. 替代方案并不理想。波音的“星际客机”最终可能会投入使用，但这家大型航空航天公司对该项目的投入程度尚不明确。波音在一年半前就开始兜售其部分航天资产，包括“星际客机”。目前尚未达成任何交易，有知情人士告诉 Ars，原因是波音的要价太高。

Even if SpaceX raises crew transportation prices, it seems unlikely that Boeing will be able to compete on reliability (given that Dragon has now flown nearly 20 times, successfully) or cost. One major disadvantage of the Boeing system is that most of the vehicle’s propulsion is housed in its service module, which is jettisoned before reentry into Earth’s atmosphere and is much more expensive to replace between flights than Dragon’s comparatively simple “trunk.” 即使 SpaceX 提高载人运输价格，波音似乎也不太可能在可靠性（考虑到“龙飞船”目前已成功飞行近 20 次）或成本上与之竞争。波音系统的一个主要缺点是，其大部分推进系统位于服务舱内，该舱段在重返大气层前会被抛弃，且在飞行间隙更换的成本远高于“龙飞船”相对简单的“后备箱”（trunk）。

Another alternative is Blue Origin, which has quietly been working on a crewed vehicle to fly atop the New Glenn rocket for several years. There has been limited public confirmation of this, but Blue Origin did sign a Space Act Agreement with NASA in 2021 to gain access to data and software used by the Orion spacecraft for optical and navigation systems. 另一个选择是蓝色起源，该公司几年来一直在悄悄研发一种搭载在“新格伦”（New Glenn）火箭上的载人飞船。虽然公开确认的信息有限，但蓝色起源确实在 2021 年与 NASA 签署了一项《太空法案协议》，以获取“猎户座”飞船在光学和导航系统中所使用的数据和软件。

It does stand to reason that if Jeff Bezos envisions a future with millions of people working in space, he would not neglect the capacity to transport people into orbit. Nevertheless, no one is sure how long it will take Blue Origin to complete development of a crew vehicle. Moreover, launch costs on New Glenn would not come cheap. Beyond that, NASA and private space station companies may need to look to an emerging company across the pond. 如果杰夫·贝索斯（Jeff Bezos）设想的未来是数百万人能在太空中工作，那么他理应不会忽视将人类送入轨道的运输能力。然而，没人能确定蓝色起源完成载人飞船开发需要多久。此外，“新格伦”火箭的发射成本也不会便宜。除此之外，NASA 和私人空间站公司可能需要将目光投向大洋彼岸的一家新兴公司。

A new contender emerges

新的竞争者出现

Last week, a Europe-based firm, The Exploration Company, hosted an office-opening celebration in Webster, Texas. At the facility, located just a couple of miles from Johnson Space Center, founder Hélène Huby said her company was considering making Houston the base of its operations to develop a crewed spacecraft. 上周，一家总部位于欧洲的公司“探索公司”（The Exploration Company）在德克萨斯州韦伯斯特市举办了办公室开业庆典。该设施距离约翰逊航天中心仅几英里，创始人海伦·胡比（Hélène Huby）表示，公司正在考虑将休斯顿作为其开发载人航天器的运营基地。

The Exploration Company has already won funding from the European Space Agency to develop a cargo vehicle, called Nyx, to carry supplies to the International Space Station. An initial mission may happen in late 2028 or 2029. And Huby has made no secret of her desire to build a crew vehicle. “It’s very clear that in the United States there is a big need for an additional crew vehicle, and nobody exactly knows if Dragon will continue to serve,” she said. “And even if Dragon continues to serve, which I wi…” “探索公司”已经获得了欧洲航天局的资助，用于开发名为“Nyx”的货运飞船，为国际空间站运送物资。首次任务可能在 2028 年底或 2029 年进行。胡比毫不掩饰她想要建造载人飞船的愿望。“很明显，美国非常需要额外的载人飞船，而且没人能确定‘龙飞船’是否会继续服役，”她说。“即使‘龙飞船’继续服役，我……”