S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

标普全球将甲骨文（Oracle）的信用评级从 BBB 下调至 BBB-

Rating agency S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB- – this is the lowest notch in the so-called investment-grade area. A further downgrade would push the database company into speculative territory. However, the outlook remains stable according to S&P.

评级机构标普全球（S&P Global）已将甲骨文的信用评级从 BBB 下调至 BBB-，这是所谓的“投资级”范围内的最低档位。如果再次下调，这家数据库公司将被归入“投机级”。不过，标普表示，其评级展望保持稳定。

The rating agency attributes the downgrade, published on July 9, to Oracle’s rapidly growing AI infrastructure business, which is massively increasing the company’s debt and capital requirements. S&P had already set the outlook for Oracle to “negative” in July 2025, warning of precisely this scenario.

该评级机构在 7 月 9 日发布的报告中将此次下调归因于甲骨文快速增长的 AI 基础设施业务，该业务正在大幅增加公司的债务和资本需求。标普此前已于 2025 年 7 月将甲骨文的评级展望定为“负面”，并预警了这一情况。

95 billion dollars in investments, 42 billion deficit

950 亿美元投资，420 亿美元赤字

According to S&P, the core of the problem is Oracle’s enormous investments in expanding AI data centers. S&P forecasts a deficit in free operating cash flow of almost 42 billion US dollars for the 2027 fiscal year. The rating agency expects Oracle to finance this deficit with a mix of debt and equity.

据标普称，问题的核心在于甲骨文在扩建 AI 数据中心方面的巨额投资。标普预测，2027 财年甲骨文的自由经营现金流赤字将接近 420 亿美元。该评级机构预计甲骨文将通过债务和股权融资的组合来弥补这一赤字。

For the 2027 fiscal year, which ends in May next year, Oracle had raised its spending forecast to 90 to 95 billion US dollars – S&P had previously only assumed 60 billion. The analysts suspect rising component costs, such as for GPUs and network equipment, as the reason.

对于将于明年 5 月结束的 2027 财年，甲骨文已将其支出预期提高至 900 亿至 950 亿美元——而标普此前仅预计为 600 亿美元。分析师认为，GPU 和网络设备等组件成本的上涨是导致这一变化的原因。

OpenAI as a central cluster risk

OpenAI 作为核心集群风险

S&P views Oracle’s strong dependence on a single major customer, OpenAI, as particularly critical. According to analyst estimates, about half of the contractually promised but not yet delivered service volume of 638 billion US dollars is attributable to OpenAI. S&P therefore explicitly describes OpenAI as a “central credit risk”.

标普认为，甲骨文对单一主要客户 OpenAI 的高度依赖尤为关键。据分析师估计，在 6380 亿美元已签约但尚未交付的服务额中，约有一半来自 OpenAI。因此，标普明确将 OpenAI 描述为“核心信用风险”。

Because if OpenAI were unable to meet its payment obligations, Oracle would be left with long-term data center rental agreements. These could neither be easily terminated nor transferred to other customers on comparable terms. And OpenAI’s ability to service its contracts, according to S&P, depends on the AI boom continuing, the models remaining market-leading, and the company continuing to raise external capital — which is not considered certain.

因为如果 OpenAI 无法履行其付款义务，甲骨文将背负长期的长期数据中心租赁协议。这些协议既不能轻易终止，也无法以相当的条款转让给其他客户。标普指出，OpenAI 履行合同的能力取决于 AI 热潮是否持续、其模型是否保持市场领先地位，以及该公司能否继续筹集外部资金——而这些因素目前尚不确定。

Transition from software company to hyperscaler

从软件公司向超大规模云服务商的转型

Oracle is currently undergoing a transformation towards a larger cloud infrastructure business. This accounted for about 27 percent of total revenue in fiscal year 2026. S&P expects this share to rise to nearly 60 percent by 2028. However, compared to other hyperscalers like Microsoft, Google, or Amazon, S&P sees Oracle in a weaker position: the company is more dependent on external customers and has less financial flexibility to weather an industry downturn. Furthermore, new competition is emerging – for example, from SpaceX, which rents computing capacity to Anthropic and Alphabet.

甲骨文目前正在向规模更大的云基础设施业务转型。该业务在 2026 财年约占总收入的 27%。标普预计到 2028 年，这一比例将升至近 60%。然而，与微软、谷歌或亚马逊等其他超大规模云服务商相比，标普认为甲骨文处于较弱地位：该公司更依赖外部客户，且在应对行业低迷时的财务灵活性较差。此外，新的竞争对手正在涌现——例如 SpaceX，它正在向 Anthropic 和 Alphabet 出租计算能力。

In parallel with the AI expansion, Oracle has cut over 21,000 jobs in the past twelve months – about 13 percent of the workforce. With this shift “from people to machines,” the company aims to finance AI infrastructure.

在进行 AI 扩张的同时，甲骨文在过去 12 个月中裁减了超过 21,000 个工作岗位，约占员工总数的 13%。通过这种“从人到机器”的转变，该公司旨在为 AI 基础设施提供资金。

Warning signal in a broader context

更广泛背景下的警示信号

Oracle’s situation fits a trend that international financial regulators are also warning about. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) sees parallels between debt-financed AI investments, the dot-com bubble, and the financial crisis, and sees a “danger like in 2008”. The BIS warns of a system crash due to Nvidia & OpenAI debt.

甲骨文的情况符合国际金融监管机构所警告的一种趋势。国际清算银行（BIS）认为，债务驱动的 AI 投资与互联网泡沫及金融危机之间存在相似之处，并看到了“类似 2008 年的危险”。国际清算银行警告称，英伟达和 OpenAI 的债务可能导致系统性崩溃。