Intel Officials Predict the Pentagon’s Bill for the Iran War Will Exceed $100 Billion
Intel Officials Predict the Pentagon’s Bill for the Iran War Will Exceed $100 Billion
情报官员预测五角大楼在伊朗战争中的开支将超过 1000 亿美元
President Donald Trump restarted the Iran conflict with days of missile strikes, and US intelligence officials now estimate the total military cost of the war for the Pentagon could exceed $100 billion, according to two people directly familiar with the matter. 据两位直接知情人士透露，唐纳德·特朗普总统通过为期数日的导弹袭击重启了伊朗冲突，美国情报官员目前估计，五角大楼在这场战争中的总军事成本可能超过 1000 亿美元。
The officials were tracking the total cost of Operation Epic Fury to be in the $50 to $100 billion range at the end of May, dovetailing with confidential congressional estimates putting the costs to date at around $80 billion. 这些官员在 5 月底追踪“史诗之怒”（Operation Epic Fury）行动的总成本时，将其估算在 500 亿至 1000 亿美元之间，这与国会内部估计的截至目前的约 800 亿美元成本相吻合。
The Trump administration has not disclosed its cost estimates for the Iran war. In June the White House made a request for $88 billion to cover some of the costs of the war, but even that is an undercounting, the people say. 特朗普政府尚未披露其对伊朗战争的成本估算。6 月份，白宫曾申请 880 亿美元以支付部分战争费用，但知情人士称，即使是这个数字也被低估了。
Part of the reason why a final cost is not available is that the Pentagon is still deciding whether to replace all the aircraft destroyed or damaged beyond repair during the conflict, the people say. 知情人士表示，最终成本无法确定的部分原因是，五角大楼仍在决定是否要更换冲突中被摧毁或损坏至无法修复的所有飞机。
If the Pentagon decides not to replace certain aircraft, defense officials have told lawmakers, they will not request money for it—and therefore not factor that into the total cost of the war, the people say. 知情人士称，国防官员已告知国会议员，如果五角大楼决定不更换某些飞机，他们就不会为此申请资金，因此也不会将其计入战争总成本。
Presented with a detailed breakdown of this reporting, a War Department official told Inner Loop: “We have nothing further to announce at the moment.” 当被问及这份报道的详细情况时，一位战争部官员告诉《Inner Loop》：“我们目前没有进一步的消息可以宣布。”
The nonpartisan Congressional Research Service said in a report on May 20 compiled using only publicly available reporting that the US had lost at least 17 manned aircraft and 25 drones since the start of the conflict. 无党派的国会研究服务处在 5 月 20 日的一份报告中指出，仅根据公开报道汇总的数据显示，自冲突开始以来，美国已损失了至少 17 架载人飞机和 25 架无人机。
The CRS report also showed the US had been losing an increasing number of drones, which are not cheap to replace. Among the 25 drones lost was an MQ-4C Triton, a high-altitude Navy surveillance aircraft that costs more than $600 million per airframe. 国会研究服务处的报告还显示，美国损失的无人机数量呈上升趋势，而更换这些无人机的成本并不低。在损失的 25 架无人机中，包括一架 MQ-4C“海神”无人机，这是一种海军高空监视飞机，单机造价超过 6 亿美元。
The cost of repairing US bases in the region, some of which sustained heavy damage from Iran firing retaliatory missiles and one-way attack drones in response to US strikes, will also be high. 修复该地区美军基地的成本也将非常高昂，其中一些基地因伊朗为回应美军袭击而发射的报复性导弹和单向攻击无人机而遭受了严重破坏。
Defense officials have told lawmakers behind closed doors they have not accounted for the costs of repair—and may never do so—if the US ultimately decides to shutter those bases because they are too vulnerable to Iranian attacks, the officials say. 国防官员在闭门会议中告诉国会议员，如果美国最终决定关闭这些基地，因为它们太容易受到伊朗的攻击，那么他们就没有（也不打算）将维修成本计入预算。
Iran has been able to repeatedly hit several key bases in the Middle East in retaliatory strikes, including the headquarters of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet at Naval Support Activity, Bahrain, which the Pentagon has not publicly acknowledged. 伊朗在报复性打击中多次成功击中中东地区的几个关键基地，其中包括位于巴林海军支援设施的美国海军第五舰队总部，五角大楼尚未公开承认这一点。
The only actual cost provided publicly by a top defense official has been from then acting Pentagon comptroller Jay Hurst, who testified in an oversight hearing in May that the cost of the war had risen to roughly $29 billion. 唯一由高级国防官员公开提供的实际成本数据来自时任五角大楼代理财务总监的杰伊·赫斯特（Jay Hurst），他在 5 月的一次监督听证会上作证称，战争成本已升至约 290 亿美元。
On Tuesday, at his nomination hearing to permanently become comptroller, Hurst declined to provide an updated figure but said the $29 billion was mainly munitions and the costs like fuel associated with having two US aircraft carriers steaming around the Middle East. 周二，在赫斯特被提名正式出任财务总监的听证会上，他拒绝提供更新的数据，但表示这 290 亿美元主要用于弹药，以及与两艘美国航空母舰在中东地区航行相关的燃料等费用。
Operation “Gold Eagle” Has Arrived
“金鹰”行动（Operation “Gold Eagle”）启动
The Trump administration on Tuesday launched a clearinghouse that will try to identify and patch any software vulnerabilities before malicious actors can hack them with the most powerful AI models. 特朗普政府周二启动了一个信息交换中心，旨在尝试在恶意行为者利用最强大的 AI 模型进行黑客攻击之前，识别并修补任何软件漏洞。
An administration official told Inner Loop the clearinghouse, named “Gold Eagle,” will be run by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which will itself use AI models that are not publicly available, to identify vulnerabilities. 一位政府官员告诉《Inner Loop》，这个名为“金鹰”的中心将由网络安全与基础设施安全局（CISA）运营，该机构将使用非公开的 AI 模型来识别漏洞。
It marks the first major implementation of Trump’s June 2 executive order that aims to create a framework to oversee the rapidly growing threat of advanced AI models. 这标志着特朗普 6 月 2 日签署的行政命令的首次重大实施，该命令旨在建立一个框架，以监管快速增长的高级 AI 模型威胁。
But the bigger test for the administration is yet to come: The executive order also requires officials to build a classified benchmarking process to assess AI model capabilities before their release—and whether the models are subject to restrictions. 但政府面临的更大考验还在后面：该行政命令还要求官员们建立一个机密的基准测试流程，在 AI 模型发布前对其能力进行评估，并确定这些模型是否受到限制。
That second step is significant because, to date, the administration has regulated the AI industry by requiring companies like Anthropic to throttle the capabilities of its most powerful models such as Mythos for public use. 第二步至关重要，因为到目前为止，政府监管 AI 行业的方式是要求 Anthropic 等公司限制其最强大模型（如 Mythos）的公共使用能力。
Within the next six to 12 months, industry experts believe China will catch up in the AI race and start publicly releasing models that are equally powerful but are not answerable to the US government. It remains unclear how the administration intends to stop bad actors from using those models to try to hack into sensitive systems. 行业专家认为，在未来 6 到 12 个月内，中国将在 AI 竞赛中迎头赶上，并开始公开发布同样强大但不受美国政府管辖的模型。目前尚不清楚政府打算如何阻止不良行为者利用这些模型尝试入侵敏感系统。
Additional reporting by Maxwell Zeff 更多报道由 Maxwell Zeff 提供
This is an edition of Hugo Lowell’s Inner Loop newsletter. Read previous newsletters here. 本文摘自 Hugo Lowell 的《Inner Loop》通讯。点击此处阅读往期通讯。