Trump teleprompter aide made $100,000 betting on what Trump would say, reports say
Trump teleprompter aide made $100,000 betting on what Trump would say, reports say
据报道，特朗普的提词器助手通过押注特朗普的演讲内容获利 10 万美元
Kalshi is a high-tech prediction market that allows people to “forecast the future” (their term). It is about contracts and information, the company says, making its offerings more like a soybean futures contract than a round of blackjack or a pull on the one-armed bandit. Still, prediction markets look a lot like betting if you squint, which is why states like New York have tried to regulate them under gambling laws. Kalshi 是一个高科技预测市场，允许人们“预测未来”（这是他们的术语）。该公司表示，这关乎合约与信息，使其产品更像是大豆期货合约，而非一局二十一点或拉动老虎机。尽管如此，如果仔细观察，预测市场看起来非常像赌博，这就是为什么纽约州等地区试图根据赌博法对其进行监管的原因。
To head this off, Kalshi has sought federal protection under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Yes, this means regulation for Kalshi, but it also means the CFTC will sue states like Kentucky, Minnesota, Illinois, and Rhode Island, trying to pre-empt their laws in favor of a single national standard that the CFTC controls. 为了应对这一局面，Kalshi 寻求了美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的联邦保护。是的，这意味着 Kalshi 将受到监管，但也意味着 CFTC 将起诉肯塔基州、明尼苏达州、伊利诺伊州和罗德岛州等，试图抢先废除这些州的法律，以支持由 CFTC 控制的单一国家标准。
While this battle plays out, government insiders continue to generate insider trading stories after using their work knowledge to place bets “forecast the future” and make huge sums of money. The classic example, of course, was Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US soldier who participated in planning the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and then made $410,000 from that knowledge on the prediction site Polymarket. Van Dyke was arrested in April. 在这场博弈进行的同时，政府内部人士继续制造内幕交易事件，他们利用工作知识进行“预测未来”的押注并赚取巨额资金。最典型的例子当然是美国士兵加农·肯·范戴克（Gannon Ken Van Dyke），他参与了抓捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的计划，随后利用这一内幕信息在预测网站 Polymarket 上获利 41 万美元。范戴克已于四月被捕。
But there are also more ridiculous stories, such as disgraced former Congressman George Santos, who allegedly talked up his upcoming appearance at the State of the Union, secretly bet on whether he would attend, and then didn’t go at the last minute to score a payout. This activity raises questions, like: How many people are gambling forecasting the future based on government secrets or insider knowledge? How many are actively manipulating results they have bet on? 此外还有更荒谬的故事，例如声名狼藉的前国会议员乔治·桑托斯（George Santos），据称他大肆宣扬自己即将出席国情咨文演讲，却私下押注自己是否会出席，最后在最后一刻选择不去，从而赢取奖金。这种行为引发了质疑：到底有多少人正基于政府机密或内幕知识进行“预测未来”的赌博？又有多少人正在积极操纵他们所押注的结果？
Even the Trump White House was concerned enough to issue a memo in March telling employees not to “use nonpublic information to buy or sell these contracts.” But concerns have lingered, especially after major wins on contracts involving US government policy or actions. Such suspicions will not be helped by new allegations today from multiple outlets that insider trading on Kalshi has extended even to President Trump’s teleprompter operator, who allegedly made $100,000 “forecasting” specific words and phrases that might appear in Trump speeches. 甚至特朗普的白宫也对此感到担忧，并在三月份发布备忘录，告知员工不得“利用非公开信息买卖这些合约”。但担忧依然存在，特别是在涉及美国政府政策或行动的合约出现巨额获利之后。今天多家媒体爆出的新指控——即 Kalshi 上的内幕交易甚至延伸到了特朗普总统的提词器操作员身上，据称他通过“预测”特朗普演讲中可能出现的特定词汇和短语获利 10 万美元——只会加剧这些怀疑。
According to sources speaking to NPR, Trump aide Gabriel Perez bet on something called a “mention market.” This is a section of Kalshi where you can sink money into contracts on crucial questions such as “What will Domino’s say during their next earnings call?” (Currently, $26,000 has been invested in this question; the smart money thinks that “Parmesan” and “DomOS” are more likely to be mentioned than not.) 据向 NPR 透露消息的人士称，特朗普的助手加布里埃尔·佩雷斯（Gabriel Perez）押注了一种所谓的“提及市场”（mention market）。这是 Kalshi 的一个板块，你可以将资金投入到关键问题的合约中，例如“达美乐披萨在下一次财报电话会议上会说什么？”（目前，该问题已投入 2.6 万美元；精明的投资者认为提到“帕尔马干酪”和“DomOS”的可能性更大。）
In the case of Perez, his “forecasting” allegedly took place over several months at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, and his contracts were sometimes adjusted in the middle of Trump speeches. According to ABC: Sources say Perez typically has the final eyes on nearly all of the president’s prepared remarks—and is often known to take last-minute edits from Trump himself… In certain instances, investigators uncovered times when Perez would back out of certain bets mid-speech when Trump skipped over a portion of the speech that included a word he had previously bet would be mentioned, the sources said. 就佩雷斯而言，据称他的“预测”发生在去年年底到今年年初的几个月里，而且他的合约有时会在特朗普演讲过程中进行调整。据美国广播公司（ABC）报道：消息人士称，佩雷斯通常是总统所有准备好的演讲稿的最后把关人，并且经常会根据特朗普本人的临时修改进行调整……消息人士称，在某些情况下，调查人员发现，当特朗普跳过演讲稿中包含佩雷斯此前押注会提到的词汇的部分时，佩雷斯会在演讲中途撤回某些押注。
This conjures up an amazing mental image: The teleprompter operator for one of the world’s most powerful people tapping away at his phone during a Trump speech to ensure he made more money for himself. In this case, Kalshi (which bans this sort of activity) flagged unusual activity, investigated, and found the customer was a federal employee. It then froze his funds and sent the information to the CFTC, which is said to have investigated and to be in settlement talks with Perez. 这勾勒出一幅令人惊叹的画面：世界上最有权势的人之一的提词器操作员，在特朗普演讲期间不停地敲击手机，以确保自己能赚到更多的钱。在这种情况下，Kalshi（禁止此类活动）标记了异常活动，进行了调查，并发现该客户是一名联邦雇员。随后，该公司冻结了他的资金并将信息发送给 CFTC，据称 CFTC 已经进行了调查，并正在与佩雷斯进行和解谈判。
Will Perez actually be prosecuted? Apparently not; as ABC notes, “sources said the CFTC alerted federal prosecutors in Manhattan, who declined to open a criminal investigation.” The White House did say today that Perez “will no longer be working at the White House.” 佩雷斯会被起诉吗？显然不会；正如 ABC 指出的那样，“消息人士称，CFTC 通知了曼哈顿的联邦检察官，但他们拒绝展开刑事调查。”白宫今天确实表示，佩雷斯“将不再在白宫工作”。
Whatever you want to call it, “predicting the future with money at stake” has become huge business in America. A recent (and terrific) long article by McKay Coppins in The Atlantic showed people what a year of online sports gambling looks like, and it raised serious questions about the negative issues that widespread, legal, bet-from-your-phone gambling might cause in a country where “roughly half of men ages 18 to 49 have an active account with an online sportsbook.” 无论你怎么称呼它，“拿钱押注预测未来”在美国已经成为一门巨大的生意。《大西洋月刊》麦凯·科平斯（McKay Coppins）最近发表的一篇（非常精彩的）长文向人们展示了一年的在线体育博彩是什么样子，并提出了严重的问题：在一个“18 至 49 岁的男性中约有一半拥有在线体育博彩活跃账户”的国家，广泛、合法且随时随地通过手机进行的赌博可能会带来哪些负面影响。
Prediction markets, which have invested heavily in advertising during the World Cup, are only going to make these challenges more acute as they extend “forecasting” from sports to drug trials, flight cancellations, and the specific words that people will say in speeches. 预测市场在世界杯期间投入了大量广告，随着它们将“预测”范围从体育扩展到药物试验、航班取消以及人们在演讲中会说的特定词汇，这些挑战只会变得更加严峻。