AI-driven memory crunch jolts India’s smartphone market
AI-driven memory crunch jolts India’s smartphone market
AI 驱动的内存短缺冲击印度智能手机市场
Months after analysts warned that AI-driven demand for memory chips would ripple through consumer electronics, India is providing the strongest evidence yet that the disruption has arrived, with rising handset prices reshaping the smartphone market. 在分析师警告人工智能对内存芯片的需求将波及消费电子产品数月后，印度提供了迄今为止最强有力的证据，证明这种干扰已经到来，手机价格的上涨正在重塑智能手机市场。
The memory chips in question — RAM and storage components — are the same ones tech giants need by the truckload to build AI data centers. Manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have been shifting production capacity toward high-bandwidth memory, the specialized chips used in AI accelerators, because they’re much more profitable per wafer than the standard memory used in phones and laptops — leaving less capacity, and driving up costs, for everyday consumer electronics. 此次涉及的内存芯片（RAM 和存储组件）正是科技巨头们建设人工智能数据中心所需的大量芯片。三星、SK 海力士和美光等制造商一直在将产能转向高带宽内存（用于人工智能加速器的专用芯片），因为与手机和笔记本电脑中使用的标准内存相比，这些芯片每片晶圆的利润要高得多，这导致日常消费电子产品的产能减少，成本上升。
India, the world’s second-largest smartphone market by shipments after China, saw smartphone shipments fall 10% year-over-year in the April-June quarter, according to market research firm Counterpoint Research, marking the steepest June-quarter decline in six years as higher memory costs pushed up handset prices. 根据市场研究公司 Counterpoint Research 的数据，作为仅次于中国的全球第二大智能手机市场，印度在 4 月至 6 月季度的智能手机出货量同比下降了 10%。由于内存成本上升推高了手机价格，这标志着六年来第二季度出现的最严重下滑。
The impact has been more pronounced in India than in China, where smartphone shipments fell just 2% in Q2, according to Counterpoint. India has been hit harder because about 60% of its smartphone market is concentrated in the sub-₹20,000 (under $210) segment, where higher memory costs have had the biggest impact on prices, Tarun Pathak, the firm’s vice president of research, told TechCrunch. 据 Counterpoint 称，这种影响在印度比在中国更为明显，中国第二季度的智能手机出货量仅下降了 2%。该公司的研究副总裁 Tarun Pathak 对 TechCrunch 表示，印度受到的冲击更大，因为其约 60% 的智能手机市场集中在 20,000 卢比（约 210 美元）以下的价位段，而内存成本的上涨对这一价位段的价格影响最大。
India has been a prominent market for global smartphone brands for several years. The South Asian nation, home to more than 1.4 billion people and over 700 million smartphone users, has become a bellwether for consumer demand in price-sensitive markets, making shifts in buying patterns closely watched by device makers, chip suppliers, and investors tracking the broader health of the AI supply chain. 多年来，印度一直是全球智能手机品牌的重要市场。这个拥有超过 14 亿人口和 7 亿多智能手机用户的南亚国家，已成为价格敏感型市场消费者需求的风向标，其购买模式的转变受到设备制造商、芯片供应商以及追踪人工智能供应链整体健康状况的投资者的密切关注。
Pathak told TechCrunch that consumers are unlikely to abandon smartphones altogether. However, many of them are expected to delay upgrades, stretching replacement cycles to around four years from about 3.5 years previously, while premium brands such as Apple and Samsung remain better insulated from the slowdown. Pathak 对 TechCrunch 表示，消费者不太可能完全放弃智能手机。然而，预计许多人会推迟升级，将换机周期从之前的约 3.5 年延长至 4 年左右，而苹果和三星等高端品牌受此次放缓的影响较小。
The uneven impact is already reshaping competition among smartphone makers. Samsung was the only major smartphone brand to post shipment growth in India in Q2, with volumes rising 2% year-over-year, according to Counterpoint. Apple, by contrast, saw shipments fall 3% — though that dip largely reflected supply constraints and inventory shortages limiting how many iPhones Apple could deliver. 这种不均衡的影响已经开始重塑智能手机制造商之间的竞争。根据 Counterpoint 的数据，三星是第二季度印度唯一实现出货量增长的主要智能手机品牌，出货量同比增长 2%。相比之下，苹果的出货量下降了 3%，尽管这一跌幅主要反映了供应限制和库存短缺，限制了苹果的 iPhone 交付能力。
Consumers buying higher-end smartphones have proved less sensitive to price increases, with financing making expensive devices more affordable, Prachir Singh, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, told TechCrunch. The pain has been most acute at the lower end of the market. Shipments in the sub-₹15,000 (under $150) segment fell 45% from a year earlier, Counterpoint said. Counterpoint Research 的高级分析师 Prachir Singh 对 TechCrunch 表示，购买高端智能手机的消费者对价格上涨的敏感度较低，因为金融分期付款使昂贵的设备变得更容易负担。市场的低端领域受到的冲击最为严重。Counterpoint 表示，15,000 卢比（约 150 美元）以下的细分市场出货量同比下降了 45%。
Because Chinese brands are heavily exposed to entry- and mid-tier smartphones, their combined market share fell to its lowest level for a second calendar quarter since 2020. The tougher economics are also prompting strategic shifts. This week, Chinese smartphone brand OnePlus said it would stop launching new products in Europe and North America, while maintaining its India business, following what it described as a careful assessment. 由于中国品牌主要集中在入门级和中端智能手机市场，其合计市场份额降至 2020 年以来第二季度的最低水平。更严峻的经济形势也促使企业进行战略调整。本周，中国智能手机品牌一加（OnePlus）表示，在经过所谓的“审慎评估”后，将停止在欧洲和北美推出新产品，同时保留其印度业务。
Counterpoint data shared with TechCrunch showed China accounted for 74% of OnePlus’ global smartphone shipments to distributors and retailers in Q1, up from 59% a year earlier, while India’s share fell to 19% from 30%. In other words, OnePlus is retreating to markets where it can still turn a profit and ceding ground elsewhere — a pattern likely to repeat across other budget-focused brands as margins tighten. Counterpoint 与 TechCrunch 分享的数据显示，第一季度中国市场占一加全球向分销商和零售商出货量的 74%，高于去年同期的 59%，而印度市场的份额则从 30% 降至 19%。换句话说，一加正在撤退到仍能盈利的市场，并放弃其他地区的阵地——随着利润率收紧，这种模式很可能会在其他主打预算的品牌中重演。
Indeed, Pathak told TechCrunch that running several sub-brands only makes sense if each one sells enough volume to cover shared costs, and that math stops working once margins get this thin. “Sub-brands normally have overlaps and shared resources, and you need a minimum base to justify the cut-throat margins. Profitability is the key to deciding market operations,” he said. 事实上，Pathak 对 TechCrunch 表示，只有当每个子品牌都能卖出足够的销量来覆盖共享成本时，运营多个子品牌才有意义，而一旦利润率变得如此微薄，这种算术逻辑就不再成立了。他说：“子品牌通常会有重叠和共享资源，你需要一个最低的基数来支撑激烈的利润竞争。盈利能力是决定市场运营的关键。”
Consumers feel the squeeze
消费者感受到压力
That pressure on brands is trickling straight down to the people buying their phones. Kiranjeet Kaur, associate research director for mobile phones research at IDC, said the Indian smartphone market is shifting from volume-led growth to value growth — meaning fewer phones are being sold overall, but each one generates more revenue — as higher component costs make lower-priced smartphones increasingly uneconomical. 品牌所承受的压力正直接传导给购买手机的消费者。IDC 移动电话研究副研究总监 Kiranjeet Kaur 表示，印度智能手机市场正从销量驱动型增长转向价值驱动型增长——这意味着总销量减少，但每部手机产生的收入增加——因为更高的组件成本使得低价智能手机越来越不划算。
The higher component costs are already filtering through to consumers. Smartphone prices in India have risen by between 4% and 68%, depending on the model, Pathak said, and as prices rise, consumers are either moving to higher-priced devices, delaying upgrades, or turning to the secondhand market. 更高的组件成本已经传导至消费者。Pathak 表示，印度智能手机价格根据型号不同上涨了 4% 到 68%。随着价格上涨，消费者要么转向更高价格的设备，要么推迟升级，要么转向二手市场。
Financing has meanwhile become “central to affordability,” Kaur told TechCrunch. She added that brands and retailers were also building inventory ahead of the festive season to lock in lower costs before further increases in component prices. IDC also expects India’s smartphone shipments to decline by double digits in Q2, a steeper fall than the 4.1% decline in the first quarter and the 5.3% drop in the previous quarter, Kaur said. However, she noted the firm’s estimates were not yet finalized. Kaur 对 TechCrunch 表示，金融分期付款已成为“负担能力的核心”。她补充说，品牌和零售商也在节日季前建立库存，以便在组件价格进一步上涨前锁定较低成本。Kaur 表示，IDC 预计印度第二季度智能手机出货量将出现两位数下滑，跌幅将超过第一季度的 4.1% 和上一季度的 5.3%。不过，她指出该公司的估算尚未最终确定。
Kaur told TechCrunch that memory shortages and elevated smartphone prices were likely to persist until at least the end of 2027, although the pace of price increases should moderate as consumers gradually adjust to higher prices becoming the new normal. “For Indian consumers, it is a double whammy as the weaker currency makes imports costlier, which has added to margin pressures for the market players, and they are passing on the cost to the consumer,” Kaur said. Kaur 对 TechCrunch 表示，内存短缺和智能手机价格高企的情况可能会持续到至少 2027 年底，尽管随着消费者逐渐适应高价成为新常态，价格上涨的速度应该会放缓。Kaur 说：“对于印度消费者来说，这是双重打击，因为货币疲软使得进口成本更高，这增加了市场参与者的利润压力，而他们正在将这些成本转嫁给消费者。”