Will Russia’s answer to the Falcon 9 rocket ever take flight?

俄罗斯对标“猎鹰9号”的火箭，真的能飞上天吗？

Everyone seems to be launching and landing rockets these days. Last week, China joined the club of countries that have launched an orbital mission and brought its booster safely back to Earth, which is just the beginning of public and private ventures in that country aggressively pushing into rocket reuse. Also in Asia, Japan’s space agency has been conducting hop tests, and Honda recently performed vertical reuse tests. 如今，似乎每个人都在发射和回收火箭。上周，中国加入了成功执行轨道任务并将助推器安全回收至地球的国家行列，这仅仅是中国公共和私营企业积极推进火箭重复使用技术的开端。同样在亚洲，日本宇宙航空研究开发机构（JAXA）一直在进行跳跃测试，本田公司最近也进行了垂直回收测试。

In the United States, of course, SpaceX launches and lands reusable rockets every few days. Blue Origin, although its New Glenn booster is temporarily grounded, has also demonstrated the ability to both land and re-launch a large orbital booster. Other US companies, including Stoke Space, Rocket Lab, and Relativity Space, are all making credible progress toward partially or fully reusable rockets. So what about Russia, which boasts a storied history of spaceflight and conducted the world’s first orbital launch nearly seven decades ago? There was some news this week from Russian space officials, but it does not exactly bolster confidence. 在美国，SpaceX 当然每隔几天就会发射并回收可重复使用的火箭。蓝色起源（Blue Origin）虽然其“新格伦”（New Glenn）助推器暂时停飞，但也已证明了其回收并重新发射大型轨道助推器的能力。包括 Stoke Space、Rocket Lab 和 Relativity Space 在内的其他美国公司，在实现部分或完全可重复使用火箭方面也取得了可靠的进展。那么俄罗斯呢？它拥有辉煌的航天史，且在近七十年前就进行了世界上首次轨道发射。本周，俄罗斯航天官员发布了一些消息，但这并不能让人感到信心倍增。

Waiting on Amur

等待“阿穆尔”

Nearly six years have now passed since the state-backed Russian space corporation, Roscosmos, unveiled plans to develop a reusable rocket called “Amur-LNG.” Clearly designed in response to SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, Amur was intended to have a reusable first stage, methane-powered engines, and be capable of delivering 10.5 metric tons to low-Earth orbit in reusable mode. At the time, Russian space officials said they planned to debut the rocket in 2026, so basically right about now. 自俄罗斯国家航天集团（Roscosmos）公布开发名为“阿穆尔-LNG”（Amur-LNG）的可重复使用火箭计划以来，已经过去了近六年。该火箭显然是为了应对 SpaceX 的“猎鹰9号”而设计，旨在配备可重复使用的第一级和甲烷动力发动机，并具备在可重复使用模式下向近地轨道运送 10.5 吨载荷的能力。当时，俄罗斯航天官员表示计划在 2026 年首飞，也就是基本上就在现在。

This week, in an interview with the RBC business publication, a senior Russian rocket official provided some new information about the developmental timeline for the Amur rocket. Dmitry Baranov, Roscosmos’ Deputy Director General for Rocket Programs, said the current focus is on developing a “demonstrator” for the first stage of the rocket. This hopper vehicle, likely reminiscent of SpaceX’s Grasshopper test bed, is intended to undergo two tests beginning in 2028. During the first of these, the vehicle will rise to an altitude of less than 1 km, with its engine running the whole time, before returning to the location it launched from. The second test will be more ambitious, with the rocket launching to 10km, shutting off its engine, and then restarting to land on deployable legs. Such a timeline seems plausible, as Russian officials have previously disclosed that the RD-0169A rocket engine intended to power the Amur rocket is in the preliminary stages of test firings. 本周，在接受 RBC 商业刊物采访时，一位俄罗斯高级火箭官员提供了关于“阿穆尔”火箭开发时间表的最新信息。俄罗斯国家航天集团火箭项目副总经理德米特里·巴拉诺夫（Dmitry Baranov）表示，目前的工作重点是开发该火箭第一级的“演示验证机”。这种跳跃飞行器很可能会让人想起 SpaceX 的“蚱蜢”（Grasshopper）测试平台，计划从 2028 年开始进行两次测试。在第一次测试中，飞行器将上升到不到 1 公里的高度，发动机全程工作，然后返回发射地点。第二次测试将更具雄心：火箭将发射至 10 公里高度，关闭发动机，然后重新启动并利用可展开的支架着陆。这样的时间表似乎是合理的，因为俄罗斯官员此前曾透露，旨在为“阿穆尔”火箭提供动力的 RD-0169A 火箭发动机正处于初步试车阶段。

Soyuz 2 is probably safe for now

“联盟2号”目前地位尚稳

The goal is for this vehicle to, in Baranov’s words, “definitely and fairly quickly” replace the Soyuz 2 rocket that is presently the workhorse of the Russian space program. This rocket is currently used for both Russian crew and cargo launches to the International Space Station. When might that happen? Baranov did not offer a new target date in the interview. But earlier this year, we got an indication from the Roscosmos State Corporation’s booth at the International Security Forum in May. A placard about the Amur-LNG rocket indicated that it would begin flight tests in 2031. 按照巴拉诺夫的话说，该飞行器的目标是“明确且相当迅速地”取代目前作为俄罗斯航天计划主力军的“联盟2号”火箭。该火箭目前用于俄罗斯向国际空间站运送乘组和货物的发射任务。这何时会发生？巴拉诺夫在采访中没有提供新的目标日期。但在今年早些时候，我们在 5 月份的国际安全论坛上从俄罗斯国家航天集团的展位上获得了一些线索。一块关于“阿穆尔-LNG”火箭的展板显示，它将于 2031 年开始飞行测试。

To summarize, when the Amur rocket was announced in 2020, its flight date was scheduled for 2026. Some six years later, its projected launch date has moved five years into the future. The only reasonable conclusion is that Russia’s answer to the Falcon 9 rocket will not arrive any time soon, and it is unlikely to do so until at least two decades after SpaceX first landed an orbital rocket. 总而言之，当“阿穆尔”火箭在 2020 年宣布时，其飞行日期定于 2026 年。大约六年后的今天，其预计发射日期已经推迟了五年。唯一合理的结论是，俄罗斯对标“猎鹰9号”的火箭短期内不会问世，而且在 SpaceX 首次成功回收轨道火箭后的至少二十年内，它都不太可能实现这一目标。