Fans Flocked to World Cup Host Cities—Causing 80 Percent of the Tournament’s Emissions
Fans Flocked to World Cup Host Cities—Causing 80 Percent of the Tournament’s Emissions
球迷涌向世界杯主办城市——造成了赛事 80% 的碳排放
Major sporting events like the FIFA World Cup and global music tours are major events that generate significant cultural and economic value. But these events also come with massive amounts of greenhouse gas emissions caused by international travel, building infrastructure, and mass consumption. 像国际足联世界杯和全球音乐巡演这样的大型体育赛事，在创造巨大文化和经济价值的同时，也因国际旅行、基础设施建设和大规模消费而产生了海量的温室气体排放。
Last week, a research team from the University of Cambridge released a new framework in the journal Communications Sustainability to evaluate mega-events from the perspective of “climate viability.” Analyzing the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which ended on Sunday, and Coldplay’s 2024 European tour, the scientists weighed the consumer welfare gains of each event against the emissions costs. 上周，剑桥大学的一个研究团队在《通讯-可持续性》（Communications Sustainability）期刊上发布了一个新框架，旨在从“气候可行性”的角度评估大型活动。科学家们分析了周日刚刚结束的 2026 年世界杯以及酷玩乐队（Coldplay）的 2024 年欧洲巡演，权衡了每项活动带来的消费者福利收益与排放成本。
“Effective climate strategies for mega-events like the World Cup go well beyond reducing operational emissions at venues, as this is only a fraction of the overall footprint,” Cambridge professor Shaun Larcom explained in an announcement about the report’s findings. 剑桥大学教授肖恩·拉科姆（Shaun Larcom）在关于该报告结果的声明中解释道：“针对世界杯这类大型活动，有效的气候策略远不止减少场馆的运营排放，因为这仅占总碳足迹的一小部分。”
According to the research team’s estimates, the expansion of the 2026 World Cup to a 48-team format is expected to increase total emissions by approximately 590,000 metric tons compared to the 32-team tournament of years prior, reaching about 4.23 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. Of that total, 82 percent is attributable to fan travel, with international travel accounting for approximately 3.07 million metric tons. The estimated emissions from the 2026 World Cup were on par with Iceland’s total annual emissions, the researchers found. 根据研究团队的估算，2026 年世界杯扩军至 48 支球队，预计将比往届 32 支球队的赛事增加约 59 万公吨排放量，总计达到约 423 万公吨二氧化碳当量。在总排放量中，82% 源于球迷出行，其中国际旅行约占 307 万公吨。研究人员发现，2026 年世界杯的预计排放量与冰岛全年的总排放量相当。
If the climate cost of these emissions were passed directly on to spectators, it would amount to an additional cost of $114 per match ticket on average. Applying the same framework to Coldplay’s 2024 European tour (10 cities, 32 shows, 1.9 million tickets), the climate cost without mitigation measures would amount to $11 per ticket. While the scale and the distances traveled by fans differ from those of the World Cup—and the research team says it did not intend to directly compare the two—the tour shows who the “key players” in emissions reduction are. 如果将这些排放的气候成本直接转嫁给观众，平均每张比赛门票将增加 114 美元的成本。将同样的框架应用于酷玩乐队 2024 年的欧洲巡演（10 个城市、32 场演出、190 万张门票）时，在没有减排措施的情况下，每张门票的气候成本为 11 美元。虽然巡演的规模和球迷的旅行距离与世界杯不同——研究团队也表示无意直接比较两者——但这次巡演展示了谁才是减排的“关键参与者”。
Coldplay has made efforts to cut the emissions tied to putting on the show, including using mobile battery systems and generating power through solar power and a kinetic dance floor. But the researchers estimate that approximately 98 percent of the emissions reductions on Coldplay’s tour were due to fans voluntarily reevaluating their travel methods. The band offered a dedicated app that allowed fans to compare low-carbon transportation options, along with discounts on merchandise for fans who traveled in an environmentally conscious manner, helped drive this behavioral change. 酷玩乐队为减少演出相关的排放做出了努力，包括使用移动电池系统，以及通过太阳能和动能舞池发电。但研究人员估计，酷玩乐队巡演中约 98% 的减排量归功于球迷自愿重新评估其出行方式。乐队提供了一款专用应用程序，让球迷可以比较低碳交通方案，并为以环保方式出行的球迷提供周边商品折扣，这些举措推动了这种行为转变。
As a result, Coldplay’s tour succeeded in reducing emissions from fan travel by 48 percent. Combined with other measures, this reduced the tour’s overall emissions by 46 percent compared to a typical tour—effectively cutting them nearly in half. 最终，酷玩乐队的巡演成功将球迷出行的排放量减少了 48%。结合其他措施，这使得巡演的总排放量比普通巡演减少了 46%——实际上几乎减半。
The researchers proposed a two-stage economic framework for decisionmaking aimed at addressing the climate damage caused by mega-events. The first stage involves comparing the economic benefits reaped by the organizer and the value to spectators—estimated based on ticket demand—with the monetary cost of emissions. If the cost exceeds the benefits, the study suggests organizers should consider scaling back, redesigning, or canceling the event. 研究人员提出了一个旨在解决大型活动气候损害的决策两阶段经济框架。第一阶段涉及将组织者获得的经济利益和观众的价值（基于门票需求估算）与排放的货币成本进行比较。如果成本超过收益，研究建议组织者应考虑缩减规模、重新设计或取消活动。
When applied to the 2026 FIFA World Cup and Coldplay’s 2024 European tour, the framework showed that in both cases, the economic benefits exceeded the climate costs. However, the researchers note that for the World Cup, the calculation may no longer hold if the social cost of carbon—that is, cost per ton of emissions based on the damage they’ll do—is on the higher side. 当应用于 2026 年世界杯和酷玩乐队 2024 年欧洲巡演时，该框架显示在这两种情况下，经济收益均超过了气候成本。然而，研究人员指出，对于世界杯而言，如果碳的社会成本（即基于排放造成的损害计算出的每吨排放成本）处于较高水平，这一计算结果可能就不再成立。
“Large entertainment events are likely producing more than enough welfare to account for their emissions costs,” Jackson Goldman, one of the study’s coauthors, said in the announcement. “What’s needed now is for organizers and fans to work together to take responsibility for these emissions.” “大型娱乐活动产生的福利很可能足以抵消其排放成本，”该研究的合著者之一杰克逊·戈德曼（Jackson Goldman）在声明中表示，“现在需要的是组织者和球迷共同努力，为这些排放承担责任。”
The second step is to incorporate the costs of climate change damage into the event’s overall costs. While the research team argues that organizers should be responsible for direct emissions associated with venues and stage setup, they contend that the costs of indirect emissions—such as fans’ round-trip travel—should be shared by both organizers and fans. 第二步是将气候变化损害的成本纳入活动的整体成本中。虽然研究团队认为组织者应负责与场馆和舞台搭建相关的直接排放，但他们主张间接排放的成本（如球迷的往返旅行）应由组织者和球迷共同分担。
Specific measures include offering discounts to fans who choose low-carbon modes of transportation and selecting host cities that minimize the distance attendees must travel. In fact, since approximately 40 percent of international visitors to the 2026 FIFA World Cup are expected to come from Europe, holding the event in Europe rather than North America could have significantly reduced travel-related emissions. 具体措施包括为选择低碳交通方式的球迷提供折扣，以及选择能最大限度缩短观众旅行距离的主办城市。事实上，由于预计 2026 年世界杯约 40% 的国际游客来自欧洲，如果在欧洲而非北美举办该赛事，本可以显著减少与旅行相关的排放。
Other options include carpooling, offering discounts for rail travelers, and adding the cost of emissions to ticket prices. However, the researchers point out that a flat-rate charge would place a relatively heavier burden on those purchasing lower-priced tickets; therefore, higher-tier tickets should bear a greater share of the carbon levy. The researchers also suggest that imposing a $4.50 broadcasting fee per viewer could offset the total estimated carbon cost of the 2026 World Cup, which amounts to $787 million. 其他方案包括拼车、为铁路旅客提供折扣，以及将排放成本计入票价。然而，研究人员指出，统一收费会对购买低价票的人造成相对更重的负担；因此，高价票应承担更大比例的碳税。研究人员还建议，每位观众征收 4.50 美元的转播费，即可抵消 2026 年世界杯总计 7.87 亿美元的预估碳成本。
“We now regularly see record-breaking temperatures as a result of climate change, which will limit if and how these mega-events can be staged in future,” Larcom notes. “If hugely popular blockbuster events cannot take responsibility for their emissions, it gives little hope for elsewhere.” “由于气候变化，我们现在经常看到破纪录的高温，这将限制未来这些大型活动的举办方式和可能性，”拉科姆指出，“如果广受欢迎的重磅活动都不能为其排放承担责任，那么其他领域就更难有希望了。”