SpaceX in your index fund, explained

指数基金里的 SpaceX：深度解析

Index funds are touted as one of the safest ways to invest. Rather than picking and choosing individual stocks, index funds let you bet on the market as a whole. So what happens when a company like SpaceX — a giant gamble, and, in my opinion, terribly overpriced — is fast-tracked into the Nasdaq-100? Does it suddenly threaten the stability of index funds based on the Nasdaq-100? Can a $1.77 trillion IPO crater the retirement funds of regular people who would ordinarily have no interest in investing in Elon Musk’s meme stock?

指数基金一直被誉为最安全的投资方式之一。与其费心挑选个股，指数基金让你能够押注整个市场。那么，当像 SpaceX 这样一家巨大的赌注——在我看来，价格高得离谱——被快速纳入纳斯达克 100 指数时，会发生什么？它会突然威胁到基于纳斯达克 100 指数的基金稳定性吗？一场 1.77 万亿美元的 IPO 会不会让那些本对投资埃隆·马斯克的“迷因股”毫无兴趣的普通人的退休金化为乌有？

The answer has less to do with SpaceX and more to do with index funds — how they work, their history, and why they’ve been treated as one of the least risky ways to interact with the stock market. So I talked to Burton Malkiel, one of the people most responsible for the rise of the index fund.

这个问题的答案与 SpaceX 本身关系不大，更多是关于指数基金——它们如何运作、历史渊源，以及为什么它们被视为参与股市风险最低的方式之一。因此，我采访了伯顿·马尔基尔（Burton Malkiel），他是推动指数基金兴起的最重要人物之一。

“If I were buying individual stocks, I would think twice about buying SpaceX, which is tremendously overhyped,” he tells me. But SpaceX isn’t a reason to avoid index funds, he says. To explain why, here’s a dive into index funds, how SpaceX interacts with them, and how it all might play out.

“如果我要买个股，我会三思而后行，不会买 SpaceX，因为它被过度炒作了，”他告诉我。但他表示，SpaceX 并不是避开指数基金的理由。为了解释原因，我们深入探讨一下指数基金、SpaceX 如何与它们产生关联，以及这一切未来可能如何演变。

What is an index fund?

什么是指数基金？

An index fund is an investment vehicle that seeks to match a specific market benchmark, such as the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq-100. It was popularized in part by Malkiel’s 1973 book A Random Walk Down Wall Street. The “random walk” of the book’s title means that the past prices of a stock don’t predict the future, and because it is hard to predict the future, it is very difficult to beat the overall market returns over a long period of time. For that reason, most of us might as well just invest in the overall market and trust it will increase in value as a whole. “A very small minority of stocks are responsible for the whole return, and experts can’t pick them any better than the index as a whole,” Malkiel told me.

指数基金是一种旨在追踪特定市场基准（如标普 500 或纳斯达克 100 指数）的投资工具。它在很大程度上得益于马尔基尔 1973 年出版的《漫步华尔街》（A Random Walk Down Wall Street）一书而普及。书名中的“漫步”意味着股票的过去价格无法预测未来，由于未来难以预测，长期来看很难跑赢整体市场收益。因此，我们大多数人不如直接投资整个市场，并相信它整体会增值。马尔基尔告诉我：“极少数股票贡献了全部收益，而专家挑选这些股票的能力并不比整个指数更好。”

The strategy of index fund investment has been endorsed by Warren Buffett, who has suggested that the average investor is best served by putting 90 percent of their money in “a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund.” And they are very popular! In 2024, the assets under management in passive investing, such as index funds, outpaced that of active funds, according to Elise Ryan of State Street Investment Management.

指数基金投资策略得到了沃伦·巴菲特的认可，他建议普通投资者最好将 90% 的资金投入“成本极低的标普 500 指数基金”。而且它们非常受欢迎！据道富环球投资管理公司的 Elise Ryan 称，2024 年，被动投资（如指数基金）的管理资产规模已经超过了主动管理基金。

Why are people worried about SpaceX specifically?

为什么人们特别担心 SpaceX？

Shortly before SpaceX went public, the Nasdaq changed its rules for the Nasdaq-100, so that a newly public company that’s large enough can join the benchmark on its 15th day of trading. That rule change was requested by SpaceX, Reuters reported.

在 SpaceX 上市前不久，纳斯达克修改了纳斯达克 100 指数的规则，使得一家规模足够大的新上市公司可以在上市第 15 个交易日加入该基准指数。据路透社报道，这一规则变更是由 SpaceX 提出的。

When SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100, on July 7th, index funds had to buy in. Interestingly, at close on July 6th, the stock was down. There’s some structural reason for that — namely, that everyone knew the index funds would have to buy in, and so banks and hedge funds most likely did some fun trades. Index rebalancing funds made out like bandits. Finance is fascinating and full of monsters.

当 SpaceX 于 7 月 7 日加入纳斯达克 100 指数时，指数基金必须买入。有趣的是，在 7 月 6 日收盘时，该股股价下跌了。这背后有一些结构性原因——即每个人都知道指数基金必须买入，因此银行和对冲基金很可能进行了一些有趣的交易。指数再平衡基金赚得盆满钵满。金融既迷人又充满了“怪物”。

There’s reason to believe that the index fund buying is part of the reason SpaceX had its initial IPO pop, according to research from Harvard Business School. What’s more, SpaceX is the initial entry into indexes for a number of expected mega-IPOs. Anthropic and OpenAI are expected to make their debuts later this year. Also, people don’t like Elon Musk.

根据哈佛商学院的研究，有理由相信指数基金的买入是 SpaceX 首次 IPO 大涨的部分原因。此外，SpaceX 是未来一系列预期巨型 IPO 进入指数的先驱。Anthropic 和 OpenAI 预计将在今年晚些时候上市。另外，人们不喜欢埃隆·马斯克。

What does the index fund inclusion mean for SpaceX?

被纳入指数基金对 SpaceX 意味着什么？

Some degree of price stability. New IPOs often fluctuate wildly. For instance, Facebook’s shares dropped 25 percent the Monday after its 2012 IPO, tripping breakers to halt trades. Beyond the fluctuations from the market itself, a lot of people will soon be able to sell SpaceX shares that aren’t yet on the market. SpaceX employees are subjected to “lockup periods,” where they can’t immediately cash out and sell their stock following the IPO. Those periods are going to expire, and doubtless some people will want to sell shares. The index funds are likely to “help absorb some of the selling,” thus keeping the price from dipping too low, according to The Wall Street Journal.

一定程度的价格稳定性。新的 IPO 往往波动剧烈。例如，Facebook 在 2012 年 IPO 后的周一股价下跌了 25%，触发了熔断机制。除了市场本身的波动外，许多人很快就能出售尚未进入市场的 SpaceX 股票。SpaceX 员工受到“锁定期”的限制，即在 IPO 后不能立即套现卖出股票。这些锁定期即将到期，毫无疑问，有些人会想要卖出股票。据《华尔街日报》报道，指数基金很可能会“帮助吸收部分抛售压力”，从而防止股价跌得太低。

How important is SpaceX in these index funds?

SpaceX 在这些指数基金中有多重要？

The company has a market cap of more than $1.5 trillion as of this writing, which is obviously enormous. But the IPO sold less than 5 percent of the company’s shares. Because of the way the Nasdaq adjusts its index, SpaceX will be treated like a much smaller company. But remember, next month more SpaceX shares will be released from lockup. People with 180-day lockups can sell more shares than were initially sold in the IPO after SpaceX publishes its second quarter financial results, notes Bloomberg’s Matt Levine. Those results are expected in mid-August. That will make it more important in those index funds — though whether the price will fluctuate much is anyone’s guess, as short sellers are also anticipating the lockup releases. These market mechanics may explain some of the stock’s short-term price fluctuation, even though the company hasn’t had much major news occur.

截至本文撰写时，该公司市值超过 1.5 万亿美元，显然规模巨大。但 IPO 出售的股份不到公司总股本的 5%。由于纳斯达克调整指数的方式，SpaceX 将被视为一家规模小得多的公司。但请记住，下个月将有更多的 SpaceX 股票解除锁定。彭博社的马特·莱文（Matt Levine）指出，在 SpaceX 发布第二季度财报后，拥有 180 天锁定期的员工可以出售的股票数量将超过 IPO 时出售的数量。财报预计在 8 月中旬发布。这将使其在指数基金中的重要性增加——尽管股价是否会大幅波动尚不可知，因为卖空者也在等待锁定期结束。这些市场机制或许可以解释该股的一些短期价格波动，尽管该公司近期并没有发生太多重大新闻。

SpaceX may take up more room in index funds as more shares are sold. But it might not, as selling usually drives down the price. 随着更多股票被出售，SpaceX 在指数基金中可能占据更大的权重。但也可能不会，因为抛售通常会压低价格。

Why are people mad about SpaceX in index funds?

为什么人们对 SpaceX 进入指数基金感到愤怒？

One big reason is the amount of power it puts in the hands of Musk. The CEO of CalPERS, an important retirement fund, and the New York state and city comptrollers sent SpaceX a nastygram about its “novel and extreme governance structure” — specifically, that only Musk decides what to do with the company and everyone else is along for the ride. Musk is temperamental…

一个主要原因是它将巨大的权力交到了马斯克手中。重要的退休基金加州公务员退休基金（CalPERS）的首席执行官，以及纽约州和纽约市的审计长向 SpaceX 发出了一封措辞严厉的信，批评其“新颖且极端的治理结构”——具体来说，即只有马斯克决定公司的事务，而其他人只是随波逐流。马斯克喜怒无常……