Data centers expected to use 4x more electricity by 2035

预计到 2035 年，数据中心的用电量将增长 4 倍

Data centers are expected to use one-fifth of the electricity generated in the U.S. by 2035, four times that of today, according to a new report from BloombergNEF. 根据彭博新能源财经（BloombergNEF）的一份最新报告，预计到 2035 年，数据中心的用电量将占美国总发电量的五分之一，是目前的四倍。

A surge in AI compute will push data center capacity to nearly 200 gigawatts over the next decade, the report predicts. Nearly half of that capacity will be devoted to training and inference, and most of that will remain concentrated in the U.S. By 2033, the country will host 64% of AI chips by power demand. 报告预测，人工智能计算需求的激增将在未来十年内将数据中心容量推高至近 200 吉瓦。其中近一半的容量将用于模型训练和推理，且大部分仍将集中在美国。到 2033 年，按电力需求计算，美国将承载全球 64% 的人工智能芯片。

Based on previous forecasts, those figures could be conservative. BloombergNEF’s new estimate for electricity demand in 2035 is 83% higher than what the consultancy predicted in December. Other organizations have raised their forecasts, too. EPRI, an electrical industry nonprofit, has more than doubled its 2024 estimate, while S&P’s forecast rose by more than a third between October and April. 基于此前的预测，这些数字可能还显得保守。彭博新能源财经对 2035 年电力需求的新估算，比该咨询机构去年 12 月的预测高出 83%。其他机构也纷纷上调了预测：电力行业非营利组织 EPRI 将其 2024 年的估算值提高了一倍多，而标普（S&P）的预测在去年 10 月至今年 4 月间也增长了三分之一以上。

The revisions reflect the fevered pace of data center development across the U.S. In the coming decade, BloombergNEF expects the majority of new data centers to hit electrical grids that are already strained. The PJM Interconnection, which spans Virginia to Illinois, will see 34% of its electricity go to data centers, while ERCOT, which covers most of Texas, will have to devote 22% of its generating capacity. 这些修正反映了美国各地数据中心建设的狂热步伐。彭博新能源财经预计，在未来十年内，大多数新建数据中心将接入本已不堪重负的电网。横跨弗吉尼亚州到伊利诺伊州的 PJM 电网公司，其 34% 的电力将供应给数据中心；而覆盖德克萨斯州大部分地区的 ERCOT 电网，则必须将其 22% 的发电能力用于满足数据中心需求。

PJM, which already hosts a large number of the country’s data centers, has struggled to cope with connection requests from both large generators and large loads. It paused applications for new sources to connect to the grid for four years, putting it in a precarious position as demand continued to grow. Though PJM reopened the queue to new generating sources in April, the situation has grown so dire that one utility, American Electric Power, has threatened to pull out of the interconnection. PJM 已经承载了美国大量的数据中心，目前正难以应对来自大型发电机组和大型负载的接入请求。它曾暂停受理新电源接入电网的申请长达四年，随着需求持续增长，这使其陷入了岌岌可危的境地。尽管 PJM 在 4 月份重新开放了新电源接入排队，但情况已变得如此严峻，以至于美国电力公司（American Electric Power）已威胁要退出该互联电网。

The supply-demand imbalance has pushed electricity prices up 76% over the past year. Even with the congestion, data centers still want to connect to PJM — they represented 38% of charges in the grid manager’s most recent capacity auction. 供需失衡导致过去一年电价上涨了 76%。尽管存在拥堵，数据中心仍希望接入 PJM——在电网运营商最近的一次容量拍卖中，数据中心占到了收费总额的 38%。

Despite the U.S. claiming a majority of AI compute, data centers will continue to grow elsewhere. By 2033, if AI adoption continues along an aggressive trajectory, data centers will create 1,935 terawatt-hours of new electricity demand worldwide, nearly as much as India uses annually. 尽管美国占据了大部分人工智能计算份额，但其他地区的数据中心也将持续增长。到 2033 年，如果人工智能的采用继续保持激进的增长轨迹，全球数据中心将产生 1935 太瓦时的额外电力需求，这几乎相当于印度全年的用电量。