A research agenda for the Economic Futures Research Fund

“经济未来研究基金”的研究议程

We’re sharing the research agenda for the Anthropic Economic Futures Research Fund. We’re committing $200 million to the fund to support ambitious external research on interventions to prepare society for the economic impacts of AI. 我们在此分享 Anthropic“经济未来研究基金”（Economic Futures Research Fund）的研究议程。我们承诺向该基金投入 2 亿美元，用于支持外部开展雄心勃勃的研究，探索如何通过干预措施帮助社会应对人工智能带来的经济影响。

With the research the Fund supports, we want to study what programs could make the economy more flexible and resilient, ensure the benefits of AI are shared, and minimize the harm that AI-driven disruption could cause. 通过该基金支持的研究，我们希望探讨哪些项目能够使经济更具灵活性和韧性，确保人工智能的红利得到共享，并最大限度地减少人工智能驱动的颠覆所可能造成的损害。

In the fund, we’ll prioritize five research areas: 该基金将优先考虑以下五个研究领域：

• Shaping AI’s impact on workers at the firm and workplace level
• 塑造人工智能在企业和工作场所层面对于员工的影响
• Equipping people to navigate AI-driven transitions
• 帮助人们应对人工智能驱动的转型
• Modernizing income support for AI-driven displacement
• 针对人工智能导致的失业实现收入支持的现代化
• Building worker stakes in AI-driven growth before disruption arrives
• 在颠覆发生前，建立员工在人工智能驱动增长中的权益
• Generating new evidence on public investments.
• 为公共投资提供新的证据支持。

What is the fund?

什么是该基金？

AI capabilities continue to improve. But we don’t yet know how quickly AI will diffuse throughout the economy while also becoming more capable, and what the economic effects will be. In our Economic Policy Framework (EPF), published in June, we proposed programs and policies for a range of scenarios. But we need more empirical evidence on which interventions might actually work in an AI-transformed economy—which ones make the economy more flexible and resilient, and spread the gains broadly. 人工智能的能力在不断提升。但我们尚不清楚人工智能在变得更强大的同时，将以多快的速度渗透到整个经济体系中，以及会产生怎样的经济影响。在今年 6 月发布的《经济政策框架》（EPF）中，我们针对多种情景提出了相应的项目和政策。但我们需要更多的实证证据，来验证哪些干预措施在人工智能转型后的经济中真正有效——即哪些措施能使经济更具灵活性和韧性，并广泛地分配收益。

In the face of this uncertainty, our aim is to build this evidence base so that workers, firms, and governments have room to adapt. This $200 million fund will support external research on interventions proposed in the EPF and on other open questions. We may be entering a moment without historical precedent, where the most promising solutions are ones nobody has tried yet. We’re willing to fund creative and ambitious pilots that can provide guidance on questions where randomized control trials alone might only provide incremental evidence. 面对这种不确定性，我们的目标是建立这一证据基础，以便员工、企业和政府有空间进行调整。这 2 亿美元的基金将支持针对 EPF 中提出的干预措施以及其他悬而未决的问题进行外部研究。我们可能正处于一个史无前例的时刻，最有前景的解决方案或许是前人从未尝试过的。我们愿意资助那些具有创造性和雄心的试点项目，为那些仅靠随机对照试验（RCT）可能只能提供渐进式证据的问题提供指导。

This is a significant evolution of our Economic Futures program, launched a year ago. We’re updating our focus to ambitious projects and large grants, because we think it’s where we can have the highest impact. We’ve always thought that it’s important to fund big external research bets; this shift will let us do so. We also learned through the Economic Futures program that it’s hard for us to scale capacity to manage many small grants at once. In addition to large-scale RCTs and pilots, we’re also interested in working with partners that could scale up a program of effective small-scale pilots. 这是我们一年前启动的“经济未来”项目的重大演进。我们将重点转向雄心勃勃的项目和大额资助，因为我们认为这能产生最大的影响力。我们一直认为资助大型外部研究项目至关重要；此次调整将使我们能够实现这一目标。通过“经济未来”项目，我们也认识到，同时管理大量小额资助在规模化能力上存在困难。除了大规模的随机对照试验和试点项目外，我们也乐于与能够扩大有效小型试点项目的合作伙伴进行合作。

The kinds of research we’re funding

我们资助的研究类型

Fundamentally, we want to fund the most ambitious proposals possible. We aim to fund large-scale RCTs or ambitious, creative pilots or program evaluations that expand our shared understanding of what shows promise and in which contexts, fill gaps where evidence is thin, and inspire new solutions. The fundable directions below lay out a set of possibilities, but we know that we have not come up with all the good ideas in this space. We welcome proposals that may not be captured below. 从根本上讲，我们希望资助尽可能雄心勃勃的提案。我们的目标是资助大规模的随机对照试验，或具有雄心、创造性的试点项目及项目评估，以扩大我们对哪些方案在何种背景下具有前景的共识，填补证据匮乏的空白，并激发新的解决方案。以下可资助的方向列出了一系列可能性，但我们深知自己并未涵盖该领域所有的好点子。我们欢迎未在下文列出的其他提案。

AI could transform society faster than traditional research funding and publication cycles can keep pace with. We’re looking to partner with research organizations that are willing to share what they’re learning publicly at key milestones because a signal that arrives early enough to act on can be worth more than an answer that arrives too late. We’re especially interested in pilots that can be scaled up dramatically if they show promise. 人工智能改变社会的速度可能超过传统研究资助和发表周期的跟进速度。我们正在寻找愿意在关键节点公开分享研究成果的研究机构进行合作，因为一个足够早、可供采取行动的信号，其价值远高于一个姗姗来迟的答案。我们尤其对那些如果表现出前景即可大幅扩展的试点项目感兴趣。

This is a global fund. The funding directions that we’ve outlined below are somewhat US-centric, in part because we’re headquartered in San Francisco, and Claude is used more in the US than any other country. But the need to prepare for disruption will be necessary worldwide, and we expect to fund projects in a way that reflects that. 这是一个全球性基金。我们在下文概述的资助方向在一定程度上以美国为中心，部分原因是我们的总部位于旧金山，且 Claude 在美国的使用率高于其他任何国家。但为颠覆做好准备是全球性的需求，我们期望以能够反映这一需求的方式资助项目。

We plan to primarily fund projects in the $5-30 million range, though we’re flexible upward for well-scoped, high-potential-impact projects. Based on what we learned from the Economic Futures program, and the ambition and scale we’re seeking in proposals, we won’t directly fund anything below $1 million from this fund. 我们计划主要资助 500 万至 3000 万美元范围内的项目，但对于目标明确、具有高潜在影响力的项目，我们向上调整资助额度的空间是灵活的。基于我们从“经济未来”项目中获得的经验，以及我们对提案在雄心和规模上的要求，我们不会直接资助该基金项下低于 100 万美元的项目。

We’ll accept proposals from accredited universities and other degree-granting institutions, from independent research institutes and policy research organizations, and from nonprofits with a track record of running field experiments at scale. Individual researchers may serve as principal investigators on proposals made by their institutions, but we won’t consider proposals from individuals applying in their personal capacity. 我们将接受来自认证大学和其他学位授予机构、独立研究机构和政策研究组织，以及拥有大规模实地实验经验的非营利组织的提案。个人研究人员可以作为其所在机构提案的首席研究员，但我们不考虑以个人名义提交的提案。

We’re more likely to fund projects that fit one of our research priorities, but we welcome ambitious proposals outside them, as long as they’re calibrated to the scale of the problem and opportunity. See our request for proposals and apply here. 我们更有可能资助符合我们研究重点的项目，但也欢迎重点之外的雄心勃勃的提案，只要它们与问题和机遇的规模相匹配。请查看我们的提案征集说明并在此申请。

Our five research priorities

我们的五个研究重点

1. Shaping AI’s impact on workers at the firm and workplace level

1. 塑造人工智能在企业和工作场所层面对于员工的影响

AI’s impact on the labor market depends on the systems, workplaces, training protocols, and institutional choices that are built around it. The existing evidence on AI’s integration in the workplace is observational and short-term. Field experiments can help us understand which collaborative patterns develop human expertise alongside AI, how organizational design choices affect both productivity and who captures the gains, and what difference worker voice makes in those design choices. 人工智能对劳动力市场的影响取决于围绕它构建的系统、工作场所、培训协议和制度选择。目前关于人工智能融入工作场所的证据多为观察性和短期性的。实地实验可以帮助我们了解哪些协作模式能在人工智能辅助下培养人类专长，组织设计选择如何同时影响生产力和收益分配，以及员工意见在这些设计选择中发挥了什么作用。

Without this evidence, both firm-level decisions and policy levers like incentives for worker augmentation, retention tax credits, employer co-investment requirements, or apprenticeship programs will be poorly informed. 如果没有这些证据，企业层面的决策以及诸如员工增效激励、留任税收抵免、雇主共同投资要求或学徒计划等政策杠杆都将缺乏依据。

Fundable directions include: 可资助的方向包括：

• Field experiments randomizing AI systems and AI integration designs at the firm or team level, including comparisons of designs co-developed with workers and worker organizations against top-down approaches.
• 在企业或团队层面进行人工智能系统和人工智能集成设计的随机实地实验，包括对比与员工及员工组织共同开发的设计与自上而下的方法。
• Estimates of the impact of organizational choices around AI workplace integration and usage on the incidence of AI productivity gains.
• 评估围绕人工智能工作场所集成和使用的组织选择对人工智能生产力收益发生率的影响。