Tesla’s robotaxi promises are clashing with reality
Tesla’s robotaxi promises are clashing with reality
特斯拉的 Robotaxi 承诺正与现实发生碰撞
In an earnings call yesterday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk did his best to paint a positive portrait of the company’s robotaxi program. New cities are being added, more miles are being driven, and more people are experiencing Tesla’s unsupervised vehicles. 在昨天的财报电话会议上，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克竭尽全力为公司的 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）项目描绘了一幅积极的蓝图。他表示，公司正在进入新的城市，行驶里程在增加，且越来越多的人正在体验特斯拉的无人监督自动驾驶车辆。
But Musk’s typical bullishness seemed to be absent from the call, as the occasional trillionaire sought to temper expectations about the program’s future. “We’re going as fast as humanly possible in scaling Robotaxi,” Musk said, “while trying to ensure that we do not harm anyone at all and ideally do not even run over a pet.” 但马斯克往常那种乐观自信的态度似乎在这次会议中有所收敛，这位偶尔跻身万亿富翁行列的企业家试图降低外界对该项目未来的预期。“我们正在以人类所能达到的最快速度扩展 Robotaxi，”马斯克说道，“同时努力确保我们不会伤害任何人，理想情况下甚至不会碾压到宠物。”
Musk’s insistence that Tesla’s robotaxi service was growing is clashing with the reality of the situation: Mileage is basically flat, the number of vehicles appears to be shrinking, and despite the Tesla executive team’s claims of “zero notable incidents,” the safety of the company’s technology appears to be an open question. 马斯克坚称特斯拉的 Robotaxi 服务正在增长，但这与现实情况发生了碰撞：行驶里程基本持平，车辆数量似乎在减少，而且尽管特斯拉高管团队声称“零重大事故”，但该公司技术的安全性似乎仍是一个悬而未决的问题。
Tesla did it’s best to frame the situation as headed in the right direction. Ashok Elluswamy, the company’s head of AI, said that Tesla’s unsupervised robotaxis have driven 380,000 miles across six cities in two different states. And according to Musk, that was increasing at a rate of 10 percent a week in terms of miles driven. 特斯拉竭力将现状描述为正朝着正确的方向发展。公司人工智能主管 Ashok Elluswamy 表示，特斯拉的无人监督 Robotaxi 已在两个不同州的六个城市行驶了 38 万英里。据马斯克称，这一行驶里程正以每周 10% 的速度增长。
Elluswamy couldn’t help but take a swipe at Tesla’s competitors who use lidar sensors, as opposed to Tesla’s camera-only approach. “Historically, the so-called experts have always claimed that you need lidars, radars, HD maps, and the entire kitchen sink to drive safely,” he said. “Here we show that such is not true. You can have safe, comfortable, and affordable autonomy with just cameras. This record should be a huge validation of Tesla’s entire AI approach.” Elluswamy 不禁抨击了那些使用激光雷达（Lidar）传感器的竞争对手，与特斯拉仅依靠摄像头的方案形成对比。“从历史上看，所谓的专家总是声称你需要激光雷达、雷达、高清地图以及所有能用上的设备才能安全驾驶，”他说，“但我们在这里证明事实并非如此。仅靠摄像头就能实现安全、舒适且经济实惠的自动驾驶。这一记录应该是对特斯拉整个 AI 方案的巨大验证。”
But even the numbers that Tesla reported seem to betray that message. Waymo, which uses lidar sensors and radar as redundant sensors in addition to cameras, typically drives around four million miles a week. Tesla’s total mileage, a year into its robotaxi program, is less than 10 percent of that figure. This reality is starting to spook investors, with BNP Paribas Equity Research senior analyst James Picariello calling it “an alarming decline” in a research note to clients. 然而，即便是特斯拉公布的数据似乎也与这一信息相悖。Waymo 在使用摄像头的同时，还利用激光雷达和雷达作为冗余传感器，其每周的行驶里程通常在 400 万英里左右。特斯拉在 Robotaxi 项目启动一年后的总行驶里程还不到该数字的 10%。这一现实开始让投资者感到恐慌，法国巴黎银行证券研究部高级分析师 James Picariello 在给客户的研究报告中称其为“令人担忧的下滑”。
Tesla uses a mix of unsupervised and supervised vehicles as part of its fleet, but that ratio appears to be in a constant state of flux. According to the crowdsourced Robotaxi Tracker, the company currently only has 16 unsupervised vehicles in Austin, four in Dallas, and one in Houston. During the earnings call, Elluswamy was asked what was preventing Tesla from flooding the zone in Austin, where it first launched its robotaxis a year ago, as opposed to dropping a small number of vehicles in new cities. 特斯拉的车队混合使用了无人监督和有人监督的车辆，但这一比例似乎处于不断变化的状态。根据众包平台 Robotaxi Tracker 的数据，该公司目前在奥斯汀仅有 16 辆无人监督车辆，达拉斯有 4 辆，休斯顿有 1 辆。在财报电话会议上，有人问 Elluswamy 是什么阻碍了特斯拉在奥斯汀（一年前首次推出 Robotaxi 的地方）大规模投放车辆，而不是在新的城市只投放少量车辆。
“The reason we have been expanding across different cities, instead of just doubling down on a single city, is that we want to make sure that our stack is a very general one,” Elluswamy said. “It is a general one. We just want to like, you know, both prove to ourselves and to other folks that it is working across a lot of different cities without too much effort per city.” “我们之所以在不同城市进行扩张，而不是仅仅深耕一个城市，是因为我们想确保我们的技术栈是非常通用的，”Elluswamy 说，“它确实是通用的。我们只是想向自己和外界证明，它可以在许多不同的城市运行，而无需为每个城市投入过多的额外精力。”
Another limiting factor is state regulations. New Jersey is considering a bill that would essentially ban robotaxis without multiple sensors, like radar and lidar. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco flagged this on the call, noting “there seems to be some evolving regulations at the state level, potentially around sensor requirements.” To which Tesla’s vice president of vehicle engineering Lars Morvay acknowledged “obviously the stuff in New Jersey, you know, is a little bit disheartening.” 另一个限制因素是州政府的法规。新泽西州正在考虑一项法案，该法案实质上将禁止没有雷达和激光雷达等多种传感器的 Robotaxi 上路。摩根士丹利分析师 Andrew Percoco 在电话会议上指出了这一点，并指出“州一级似乎正在出现一些法规演变，可能涉及传感器要求。”对此，特斯拉车辆工程副总裁 Lars Morvay 承认，“显然，新泽西州的情况确实有点令人沮丧。”
A more restrictive regulatory environment could limit the total addressable market for Tesla robotaxis, which would clash with the company’s message about a more generalized service that can drive anywhere, under any conditions. 更严格的监管环境可能会限制特斯拉 Robotaxi 的潜在市场总额，这将与该公司关于“可以在任何条件下、任何地点行驶的通用服务”的宣传相冲突。
Safety is another obstacle. Musk’s comment about wanting to avoid running over any pet appeared to be a subtle swipe at Waymo, which has hit and killed a number of animals over the past several years. But Tesla’s safety record is a mixed bag. We don’t have a lot of great insight into Tesla’s robotaxi crashes because the company tends to redact a lot of the important details. 安全性是另一个障碍。马斯克关于“避免碾压宠物”的评论似乎是在含蓄地抨击 Waymo，后者在过去几年中曾多次撞死动物。但特斯拉的安全记录好坏参半。我们对特斯拉 Robotaxi 的事故缺乏深入了解，因为该公司倾向于隐去许多重要细节。
According to the Robotaxi Tracker, the company’s fleet has been involved in approximately 18 incidents, 56 percent of which were the fault of another driver. And Tesla’s Full Self-Driving is under investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, with the potential for a future recall. Tesla’s robotaxis are currently running version 15 of FSD, as compared to version 14.3.6 on its customer vehicles. 根据 Robotaxi Tracker 的数据，特斯拉车队已涉及约 18 起事故，其中 56% 是由其他驾驶员造成的。此外，特斯拉的完全自动驾驶（FSD）系统正受到美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）的调查，未来可能面临召回。特斯拉的 Robotaxi 目前运行的是 FSD 15 版本，而其客户车辆运行的是 14.3.6 版本。
Tesla is asking investors, supporters, and customers to look past these shortcomings as it continues to push the message that it’s robotaxi program is growing. But the company continues to run into a reality that contradicts that message. 特斯拉正要求投资者、支持者和客户忽略这些缺点，同时继续宣传其 Robotaxi 项目正在增长。但该公司不断遭遇与这一信息相矛盾的现实。